Ramalan yang boleh dipercayai
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan PK-35 kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Anggaran saksama dan harga pasaran berbeza secara sederhana. Pantau sebelum sepak mula.
Anggaran saksama menunjukkan kelebihan sederhana berbanding harga pasaran semasa pada JäPS.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| JäPS | 35.5% | 29.22% | +6.3 pp |
| Seri | 29.0% | 29.6% | -0.6 pp |
| PK-35 | 35.5% | 41.18% | -5.7 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
JäPS market context before kickoff
⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil on JäPS
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.355,
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"btts_no_prob": 0.435,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.82,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.82,
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"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or PK-35 and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "PK-35"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0562,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2987,
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.5,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 35.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.35
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"odd": 3.25
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 3.16
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 3.1
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 3.05
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"odd": 3.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 3.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 3.0
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.35,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "J\u00e4PS Win",
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"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.35,
"market_odds": 3.04,
"model_odds": 2.82,
"overround": 10.0,
"prob_edge": 5.6,
"value_pct": 18.8,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 10,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
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"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 10,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 43.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 56.5
},
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"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"label": "J\u00e4PS or Draw",
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "J\u00e4PS or PK-35",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or PK-35",
"prob": 64.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
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"home_pct": 35.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"over_under": {
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"over_prob": 50.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.7,
"under_prob": 49.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.9,
"implied_prob": 29.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "J\u00e4PS Win",
"model_prob": 35.5,
"odds": 3.35
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1474,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.7,
"text": "-14.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0565,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
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"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0626,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1355,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.6,
"text": "-13.6%"
},
"featured": false,
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "over"
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
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"ev_display": {
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.6,
"hero_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"market_team": "PK-35",
"model_prob_pct": 35.5,
"model_team": "J\u00e4PS",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"fair_prob": 35.5,
"label": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob": 29.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.32,
"fair_prob": 29.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.28,
"fair_prob": 35.5,
"label": "PK-35",
"market_prob": 40.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.18,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.18,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.24,
"fair_prob": 56.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.24,
"fair_prob": 43.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.5,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 5.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean J\u00e4PS, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and PK-35 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.6,
"hero_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on J\u00e4PS.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on J\u00e4PS.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on J\u00e4PS.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on J\u00e4PS."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on J\u00e4PS.",
"Recent line movement on J\u00e4PS (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/12) supports the current market view on J\u00e4PS."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 5.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.5,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.32,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "PK-35",
"market_prob_pct": 40.78,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on J\u00e4PS.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers PK-35 (29.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 J\u00e4PS, Market \u2192 PK-35, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.33,
"entry_odds": 3.0,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/12",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "J\u00e4PS",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "J\u00e4PS",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10669,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10669.webp",
"away_team_name": "PK-35",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1504242,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_id": 9173,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9173.webp",
"home_team_name": "J\u00e4PS",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_id": 1087,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1087.webp",
"league_name": "Ykk\u00f6sliiga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 15:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4143,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"p_final": 0.3859
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2986,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.2932,
"model_prob": 0.2901,
"p_final": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2748,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"p_final": 0.3144
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.96,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"edge_no": -0.0524,
"edge_yes": 0.0524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1474,
"ev_yes": 0.0565,
"implied_no": 0.4874,
"implied_yes": 0.5126,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"edge_over": 0.0518,
"edge_under": -0.0518,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0626,
"ev_under": -0.1355,
"implied_over": 0.4542,
"implied_under": 0.5458,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0626,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.565,
"draw_prob": 0.2901,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3549,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.5126,
"model_prob": 0.565,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0518,
"ev": 0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4542,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1504242,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0626,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3549,
"draw": 0.2901,
"home": 0.3549
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "PK-35",
"home": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031922,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.5126,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.565,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1504242,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:42:00.786033+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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