Ya 77.7% · Tidak 22.3%
EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -55.4%
Condong nilai: BTTS Ya
Penilaian Ramalan
Risiko kerosakan model
- Kegemaran
- Mariehamn Kegemaran
- Kebarangkalian model
- 61.8%
- Kebarangkalian pasaran
- 25.6%
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Sangat lemah
- Pengesahan
- gagal
Ringkasan:
Jangan tafsir perbandingan model vs pasaran sehingga pengesahan berlalu.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Audit Pasaran
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Sangat lemah
- Pengesahan
- gagal
- Jurang terbesar
- Mariehamn +36.3 pp
- Keluasan
- 13/13
- Aktiviti pasaran semasa
- Belum ada pergerakan arah yang bermakna.
Model dan pasaran berbeza mengikut 36.3 mata peratusan. Output model mungkin tidak boleh dipercayai untuk padanan ini — sahkan input sebelum mentafsir kebarangkalian.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariehamn | 61.84% | 25.58% | +36.3 pp |
| Seri | 18.02% | 27.08% | -9.1 pp |
| Gnistan | 20.15% | 47.34% | -27.2 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Risiko Pecahan Model
Model dan pasaran berbeza mengikut 36.3 mata peratusan. Output model mungkin tidak boleh dipercayai untuk padanan ini — sahkan input sebelum mentafsir kebarangkalian.
- Perbezaan model-pasaran yang melampau dikesan.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
Lebih 2.5
— Nilai
Mariehamn · Kebarangkalian model 61.8%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 25.6%
EV garisan konsensus: +11.6%
Paling berkemungkinan
2-1
Kebarangkalian 7.2%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai peluang — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran menunjukkan anggaran +EV pada kemungkinan perpuluhan terbaik semasa (ambang: 2.0%).
Kekuatan keputusan: 7.5 / 10
- Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
- EV utama melebihi 10% (+1.0)
- Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5:
EV Selesai +25%+ ·
EV Di Bawah -68.7%
(11 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -55.4%
BTTS: EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -55.4%
Mariehamn market context before kickoff
⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil on Mariehamn
- Odds move
- 3.50 → 3.50 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 13/13
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Kitaran Hayat Keputusan
Peringkat semasa: Pengesahan model gagal
- Ramalan Dijana
- Pasaran Berbanding
- Pengesahan Lulus
- Penutupan Dirakam
- CLV Dinilai
- Kemasukan
- 3.6
- Penutup
- Belum selesai
- CLV
- Belum selesai
Enjin Keputusan OddsGPT v2.2.0
Sentiasa diperhalusi menggunakan prestasi model, data pasaran dan keputusan sejarah.
Semak Odds di 1xBet
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
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"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
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"over_under": {
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"alert_move": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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],
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"hero_side": "home",
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"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
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"favourite_label": "Mariehamn",
"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_prob_pct": 25.6,
"model_prob_pct": 61.8,
"paragraphs": [
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],
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"reliability_icon": "\u2717",
"reliability_tier": "breakdown",
"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
"tier": "breakdown",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Fail"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 36.26,
"hero_label": "Mariehamn",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
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"status": "fail"
},
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"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 41.7,
"max_prob_pct": 61.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
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"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.08,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -27.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.15,
"is_hero": false,
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"market_prob_pct": 47.34,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gnistan (25.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mariehamn, Market \u2192 Gnistan, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
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"entry_implied_pct": 27.78,
"entry_odds": 3.6,
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"id": "forecast_generated",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "lost"
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Mariehamn",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Mariehamn",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 2082,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2082.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gnistan",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1495702,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_id": 587,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/587.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mariehamn",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_id": 244,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
"league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Mariehamn",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
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"best_odd": 1.945,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0966,
"ev": -0.267,
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"model_prob": 0.2018,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2593,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0235,
"ev": -0.159,
"implied_prob": 0.2708,
"model_prob": 0.1803,
"p_final": 0.2474
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.15,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0543,
"ev": 0.1163,
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"model_prob": 0.6179,
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}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": -0.2478,
"edge_yes": 0.2478,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.554,
"ev_yes": 0.3986,
"implied_no": 0.4708,
"implied_yes": 0.5292,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.98,
"best_under_odd": 1.9,
"edge_over": 0.3452,
"edge_under": -0.3452,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6533,
"ev_under": -0.6865,
"implied_over": 0.4898,
"implied_under": 0.5102,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.58,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6533,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.777,
"draw_prob": 0.1803,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6179,
"over_prob": 0.835,
"total_xg": 4.58,
"under_prob": 0.165,
"xg_diff": 1.2
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0543,
"ev": 0.1163,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6179,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mariehamn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2478,
"ev": 0.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.5292,
"model_prob": 0.777,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.3452,
"ev": 0.6533,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"model_prob": 0.835,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1495702,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6533,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2018,
"draw": 0.1803,
"home": 0.6179
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.5292,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.777,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.5292,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.777,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1163,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6179,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mariehamn",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gnistan",
"home": "Mariehamn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.545505,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6533,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.835,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495702,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:22:19.738326+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Mariehamn & Gnistan!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
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