Ramalan / Piala Dunia 2026 / Ecuador vs Germany

Ecuador vs Germany

Group E
Ecuador Ecuador
Jun 25, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.37
1 1.33
Germany Germany

Betting Signal

Model berkata
Ecuador 36.3%
Pasaran berkata
Germany 19.9%
Perbezaan
25.4 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Germany (19.9%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Ecuador, Market → Germany, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Pasaran lwn Model

Ecuador
36.3% vs 19.86%
+16.4 pp
Draw
29.0% vs 20.07%
+8.9 pp
Germany
34.7% vs 60.07%
-25.4 pp

Jurang Terbesar

Germany -25.4 pp

Pasaran secara ketara lebih menaik pada Germany berbanding model.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Ramalan AI
Ecuador 36.3%
Draw 29.0%
Germany 34.7%

Dijana daripada simulasi Poisson terlaras Elo. Bukan penentu taruhan.

Tunjukkan Data Model Penuh
Kebarangkalian garisan gol Poisson
Garisan Over Under
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Jangkaan perlawanan
Over 2.5 gol
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 gol
49.4%
Kedua-dua jaring gol
56.5%
Balanced
Clean sheet mungkin
43.5%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.5% · No 43.5% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Skor paling mungkin
Skor Kebarangkalian
1-1 13.8%
2-1 8.4%
0-0 8.3%
1-2 8.2%
1-0 7.6%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.8% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fasa Perlawanan: Finished

Kitaran Hayat Keputusan

Peringkat semasa: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prediksi Dijana
  2. Pasaran Berbanding
    Kemasukan Belum selesai
  3. Pengesahan Lulus
  4. Penutupan Dirakam
    Penutup 1.62
  5. CLV Dinilai
    CLV Belum selesai Awaiting CLV calculation
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Perlawanan Group E