Ramalan / Piala Dunia 2026 / Haiti vs Scotland

Haiti vs Scotland

Group C
Haiti Haiti
Jun 14, 2026 - 01:00
0 2.16
1 0.54
Scotland Scotland

Betting Signal

Model berkata
Haiti 74.0%
Pasaran berkata
Scotland 16.3%
Perbezaan
57.7 pp
Status
Market disagrees with model

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Scotland (16.3%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Haiti, Market → Scotland, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Pasaran lwn Model

Haiti
74.0% vs 16.3%
+57.7 pp
Draw
19.1% vs 21.03%
-1.9 pp
Scotland
6.8% vs 62.68%
-55.9 pp

Jurang Terbesar

Haiti +57.7 pp

Model ini secara ketara lebih yakin pada Haiti berbanding pasaran.

The model and market differ by more than 57.7 percentage points. This often indicates rating-source issues, team mapping errors, missing strength inputs, or invalid assumptions. Review underlying data before interpreting the comparison.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Data Integrity Review Required

Extreme model-market divergence detected. The model and market differ by 57.7 percentage points. Review underlying rating inputs and team mapping before interpreting this comparison.

Ramalan AI
Haiti 74.0%
Draw 19.1%
Scotland 6.8%

Dijana daripada simulasi Poisson terlaras Elo. Bukan penentu taruhan.

Tunjukkan Data Model Penuh
Kebarangkalian garisan gol Poisson
Garisan Over Under
0.5 92.3% 7.7%
1.5 76.1% 23.9%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Jangkaan perlawanan
Over 2.5 gol
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 gol
49.4%
Kedua-dua jaring gol
37.8%
Likely
Clean sheet mungkin
62.2%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS No 62.2% — at least one zero-scoreline cell carries 62.2% of joint mass.

Skor paling mungkin
Skor Kebarangkalian
2-0 15.7%
1-0 13.5%
3-0 11.3%
1-1 8.8%
2-1 8.4%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 15.7% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fasa Perlawanan: Finished

Kitaran Hayat Keputusan

Peringkat semasa: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prediksi Dijana
  2. Pasaran Berbanding
    Kemasukan Belum selesai
  3. Pengesahan Lulus
  4. Penutupan Dirakam
    Penutup 6.0
  5. CLV Dinilai
    CLV Belum selesai Awaiting CLV calculation
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Perlawanan Group C