Prédictions / Coupe du monde 2026 / RD Congo vs Ouzbékistan

RD Congo vs Ouzbékistan

Group K
RD Congo RD Congo
Jun 27, 2026 - 23:30
3 1.23
1 1.47
Ouzbékistan Ouzbékistan

Betting Signal

Le modèle dit
Ouzbékistan 41.2%
Le marché dit
RD Congo 19.2%
Différence
25.7 pp
Statut
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers RD Congo (19.2%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Ouzbékistan, Market → RD Congo, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Marché vs modèle

RD Congo
30.1% vs 55.84%
-25.7 pp
Draw
28.8% vs 24.99%
+3.8 pp
Ouzbékistan
41.2% vs 19.16%
+22.0 pp

Le plus grand écart

RD Congo -25.7 pp

Le marché est nettement plus optimiste sur RD Congo que sur le modèle.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Prévisions IA
RD Congo 30.1%
Draw 28.8%
Ouzbékistan 41.2%

Généré à partir d'une simulation de Poisson ajustée par Elo. Pas les cotes des bookmakers.

Afficher les données complètes du modèle
Probabilités de lignes Poisson
Ligne Plus Moins
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Attentes du match
Plus de 2,5 buts
50.6%
Balanced
Moins de 2,5 buts
49.4%
Les deux équipes marquent
56.1%
Balanced
Clean sheet probable
43.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.1% · No 43.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Scores les plus probables
Score Probabilité
1-1 13.7%
1-2 8.9%
0-0 8.3%
0-1 8.3%
2-1 7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Phase de correspondance: Finished

Cycle de vie des décisions

Stade actuel: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prédiction générée
  2. Comparaison du marché
    Entrée En attente
  3. Validation réussie
  4. Clôture enregistrée
    Clôture 1.75
  5. CLV évalué
    CLV En attente Awaiting CLV calculation
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Matchs Group K