Prédictions / Coupe du monde 2026 / Haïti vs Écosse

Haïti vs Écosse

Group C
Haïti Haïti
Jun 14, 2026 - 01:00
0 2.16
1 0.54
Écosse Écosse

Betting Signal

Le modèle dit
Haïti 74.0%
Le marché dit
Écosse 16.3%
Différence
57.7 pp
Statut
Market disagrees with model

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Écosse (16.3%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Haïti, Market → Écosse, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Marché vs modèle

Haïti
74.0% vs 16.3%
+57.7 pp
Draw
19.1% vs 21.03%
-1.9 pp
Écosse
6.8% vs 62.68%
-55.9 pp

Le plus grand écart

Haïti +57.7 pp

Le modèle est nettement plus optimiste sur Haïti que sur le marché.

The model and market differ by more than 57.7 percentage points. This often indicates rating-source issues, team mapping errors, missing strength inputs, or invalid assumptions. Review underlying data before interpreting the comparison.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Data Integrity Review Required

Extreme model-market divergence detected. The model and market differ by 57.7 percentage points. Review underlying rating inputs and team mapping before interpreting this comparison.

Prévisions IA
Haïti 74.0%
Draw 19.1%
Écosse 6.8%

Généré à partir d'une simulation de Poisson ajustée par Elo. Pas les cotes des bookmakers.

Afficher les données complètes du modèle
Probabilités de lignes Poisson
Ligne Plus Moins
0.5 92.3% 7.7%
1.5 76.1% 23.9%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Attentes du match
Plus de 2,5 buts
50.6%
Balanced
Moins de 2,5 buts
49.4%
Les deux équipes marquent
37.8%
Likely
Clean sheet probable
62.2%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS No 62.2% — at least one zero-scoreline cell carries 62.2% of joint mass.

Scores les plus probables
Score Probabilité
2-0 15.7%
1-0 13.5%
3-0 11.3%
1-1 8.8%
2-1 8.4%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 15.7% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Phase de correspondance: Finished

Cycle de vie des décisions

Stade actuel: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prédiction générée
  2. Comparaison du marché
    Entrée En attente
  3. Validation réussie
  4. Clôture enregistrée
    Clôture 6.0
  5. CLV évalué
    CLV En attente Awaiting CLV calculation
Retour aux prévisions du jour
Matchs Group C