Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Weak
- Validation
- Warning
- Largest gap
- Uruguay W +24.4 pp
- Breadth
- 2/8
The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay W | 50.24% | 25.83% | +24.4 pp |
| Draw | 26.24% | 27.81% | -1.6 pp |
| Venezuela W | 23.52% | 46.36% | -22.8 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Model Validation Required
The model and market differ materially (24.4 percentage points). Additional validation is recommended before interpreting this comparison.
- Extreme model-market divergence detected.
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- pred_conf_v1_primary_line
- pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10
- pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines
BTTS: EV Yes +6.9% · EV No -18.9%
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Model validation warning
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Model Validated
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 3.5
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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