Vorhersagen / WM 2026 / Portugal vs Kroatien

Portugal vs Kroatien

Group K
Portugal Portugal
Jul 02, 2026 - 23:00
2 1.44
1 1.26
Kroatien Kroatien

Betting Signal

Model sagt
Portugal 39.8%
Markt sagt
Portugal 57.9%
Unterschied
18.1 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Portugal (57.9%).

Portugal — market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (-18.1 pp).

Markt vs. Modell

Portugal
39.8% vs 57.88%
-18.1 pp
Draw
28.9% vs 25.41%
+3.5 pp
Kroatien
31.4% vs 16.72%
+14.7 pp

Größte Lücke

Portugal -18.1 pp

Der Markt ist bei Portugal wesentlich optimistischer als beim Modell.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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KI-Prognose
Portugal 39.8%
Draw 28.9%
Kroatien 31.4%

Erstellt aus einer Elo-bereinigten Poisson-Simulation. Keine Buchmacherquoten.

Vollständige Modelldaten anzeigen
Poisson-Torlinien-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Linie Über Unter
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Spielerwartungen
Über 2,5 Tore
50.6%
Balanced
Unter 2,5 Tore
49.4%
Beide treffen
56.2%
Balanced
Zu-Null wahrscheinlich
43.8%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.2% · No 43.8% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
Ergebnis Wahrscheinlichkeit
1-1 13.8%
2-1 8.8%
0-0 8.3%
1-0 8.1%
1-2 7.7%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.8% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Spielphase: Finished

Entscheidungslebenszyklus

Aktuelle Stufe: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prognose erstellt
  2. Markt verglichen
    Einstieg Ausstehend
  3. Validierung bestanden
  4. Closing erfasst
    Closing 1.69
  5. CLV bewertet
    CLV Ausstehend Awaiting CLV calculation
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