Vorhersagen / WM 2026 / Deutschland vs Paraguay

Deutschland vs Paraguay

Group E
Deutschland Deutschland
Jun 29, 2026 - 20:30
1(3) 1.50
1(4) 1.20
Paraguay Paraguay

Betting Signal

Model sagt
Deutschland 42.6%
Markt sagt
Deutschland 73.0%
Unterschied
30.4 pp
Status
Market disagrees with model

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Deutschland (73.0%).

Extreme model–market probability gap (30.4 pp) — model favours Deutschland; market prices disagree materially. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.

Markt vs. Modell

Deutschland
42.6% vs 72.99%
-30.4 pp
Draw
28.6% vs 18.11%
+10.5 pp
Paraguay
28.7% vs 8.89%
+19.8 pp

Größte Lücke

Deutschland -30.4 pp

Der Markt ist bei Deutschland wesentlich optimistischer als beim Modell.

The model and market differ by 30.4 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup — validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Model Breakdown Risk

Extreme model-market divergence — model output may be unreliable. The model and market differ by 30.4 percentage points. Do not treat model probabilities as actionable without further validation.

KI-Prognose
Deutschland 42.6%
Draw 28.6%
Paraguay 28.7%

Erstellt aus einer Elo-bereinigten Poisson-Simulation. Keine Buchmacherquoten.

Vollständige Modelldaten anzeigen
Poisson-Torlinien-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Linie Über Unter
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Spielerwartungen
Über 2,5 Tore
50.6%
Balanced
Unter 2,5 Tore
49.4%
Beide treffen
55.9%
Balanced
Zu-Null wahrscheinlich
44.1%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 55.9% · No 44.1% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
Ergebnis Wahrscheinlichkeit
1-1 13.7%
2-1 9.1%
1-0 8.5%
0-0 8.3%
2-0 7.6%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Spielphase: Finished

Entscheidungslebenszyklus

Aktuelle Stufe: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prognose erstellt
  2. Markt verglichen
    Einstieg Ausstehend
  3. Validierung bestanden
  4. Closing erfasst
    Closing 1.34
  5. CLV bewertet
    CLV Ausstehend Awaiting CLV calculation
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