Prediksi / Piala Dunia 2026 / Belgia vs Mesir

Belgia vs Mesir

Group G
Belgia Belgia
Jun 15, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.65
1 1.05
Mesir Mesir

Betting Signal

Kata model
Belgia 49.6%
Kata pasar
Belgia 60.3%
Perbedaan
10.7 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Belgia (60.3%).

Belgia — market direction supports the model lean.

Pasar vs Model

Belgia
49.6% vs 60.29%
-10.7 pp
Draw
27.6% vs 23.59%
+4.0 pp
Mesir
22.8% vs 16.12%
+6.7 pp

Kesenjangan Terbesar

Belgia -10.7 pp

Pasar secara substansial lebih bullish pada Belgia dibandingkan modelnya.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Perkiraan AI
Belgia 49.6%
Draw 27.6%
Mesir 22.8%

Dihasilkan dari simulasi Poisson yang disesuaikan dengan Elo. Bukan peluang taruhan.

Tampilkan Data Model Lengkap
Probabilitas garis gol Poisson
Garis Over Under
0.5 91.8% 8.2%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Ekspektasi pertandingan
Over 2,5 gol
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2,5 gol
49.4%
Kedua tim cetak gol
54.1%
Balanced
Clean sheet mungkin
45.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 54.1% · No 45.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Skor paling mungkin
Skor Probabilitas
1-1 13.2%
2-1 9.6%
1-0 9.5%
2-0 9.1%
0-0 8.2%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.2% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase Pertandingan: Finished

Siklus Hidup Keputusan

Tahap saat ini: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prediksi Dihasilkan
  2. Dibandingkan dengan Pasar
    Pintu masuk Tertunda
  3. Validasi Lulus
  4. Penutupan Direkam
    Penutupan 1.62
  5. CLV Dievaluasi
    CLV Tertunda Awaiting CLV calculation
Kembali ke prediksi hari ini
Pertandingan Group G