Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
12.73%
Odds adil
7.85
Seri
28.64%
Odds adil
3.49
Lawan Menang
58.63%
Odds adil
1.71
Jaringan paling mungkin
0 - 1
Kebarangkalian 20.61%
Odds adil 4.85
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 7.85 | — | |
| Seri | 3.49 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 1.71 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 | 20.61% | 4.85 |
| 2 | 0-2 | 14.63% | 6.83 |
| 3 | 0-0 | 14.51% | 6.89 |
| 4 | 1-1 | 10.51% | 9.51 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 7.46% | 13.4 |
| 6 | 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| 7 | 0-3 | 6.93% | 14.44 |
| 8 | 1-3 | 3.53% | 28.31 |
| 9 | 2-1 | 2.68% | 37.31 |
| 10 | 0-4 | 2.46% | 40.67 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.51%
6.89
|
20.61%
4.85
|
14.63%
6.83
|
6.93%
14.44
|
2.46%
40.67
|
0.7%
143.2
|
| 1 |
7.4%
13.51
|
10.51%
9.51
|
7.46%
13.4
|
3.53%
28.31
|
1.25%
79.74
|
0.36%
280.74
|
| 2 |
1.89%
52.97
|
2.68%
37.31
|
1.9%
52.55
|
0.9%
111.01
|
0.32%
312.7
|
0.09%
1101.32
|
| 3 |
0.32%
311.62
|
0.46%
219.44
|
0.32%
309.12
|
0.15%
653.17
|
0.05%
1838.24
|
0.02%
6493.51
|
| 4 |
0.04%
2444.99
|
0.06%
1721.17
|
0.04%
2421.31
|
0.02%
5128.21
|
0.01%
14492.75
|
0.0%
50000.0
|
| 5 |
0.0%
23809.52
|
0.01%
16949.15
|
0.0%
23809.52
|
0.0%
50000.0
|
0.0%
142857.14
|
0.0%
500000.0
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.34%
·
Adil:
290.44
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 39.95% | 60.05% |
| 1.5 | 9.33% | 90.67% |
| 2.5 | 1.52% | 98.48% |
| 3.5 | 0.19% | 99.81% |
| 4.5 | 0.02% | 99.98% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 75.83% | 24.17% |
| 1.5 | 41.51% | 58.49% |
| 2.5 | 17.14% | 82.86% |
| 3.5 | 5.6% | 94.4% |
| 4.5 | 1.51% | 98.49% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.51% | 6.89 |
| 1 | 28.01% | 3.57 |
| 2 | 27.03% | 3.70 |
| 3 | 17.39% | 5.75 |
| 4 | 8.39% | 11.92 |
| 5+ | 4.66% | 21.48 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 30.44%
Bawah/Under 2.5 69.56%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
12.73%
Seri
28.64%
Lawan Menang
58.63%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
30.44%
Bawah/Under 2.5
69.56%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
30.29%
Tidak
69.71%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 0.44% 229.51 | 2.39% 41.9 | 97.18% 1.03 |
| -1.5 | 2.82% 35.43 | — | 97.18% 1.03 |
| -1.0 | 2.82% 35.43 | 10.43% 9.59 | 86.75% 1.15 |
| -0.5 | 13.25% 7.55 | — | 86.75% 1.15 |
| 0 (PK) | 13.25% 7.55 | 27.09% 3.69 | 59.66% 1.68 |
| +0.5 | 40.34% 2.48 | — | 59.66% 1.68 |
| +1.0 | 40.34% 2.48 | 29.03% 3.44 | 30.63% 3.26 |
| +1.5 | 69.37% 1.44 | — | 30.63% 3.26 |
| +2.0 | 69.37% 1.44 | 18.5% 5.4 | 12.13% 8.25 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
