The model missed the final outcome (Eastbourne Borough win 0–4).
The model had projected Carshalton Athletic at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Carshalton Athletic Eastbourne Borough ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carshalton Athletic | 36.6% | 35.4% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.3% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Eastbourne Borough | 33.8% | 40.4% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Eastbourne Borough's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Eastbourne Borough win 0–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Eastbourne Borough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Carshalton Athletic; match finished Eastbourne Borough
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Carshalton Athletic by 6.6 percentage points (43.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Carshalton Athletic 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Eastbourne Borough 33.8%
- xG · Carshalton Athletic 1.33 — Eastbourne Borough 1.27
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Carshalton Athletic 2.56 · Draw 3.73 · Eastbourne Borough 2.24
- Implied 1X2 · Carshalton Athletic 35.4% · Draw 24.3% · Eastbourne Borough 40.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Carshalton Athletic 2.56 · Draw 3.73 · Eastbourne Borough 2.24
- Implied 1X2 · Carshalton Athletic 35.4% · Draw 24.3% · Eastbourne Borough 40.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Eastbourne Borough win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.24
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Eastbourne Borough win · Carshalton Athletic 0–4 Eastbourne Borough
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
"away": 0,
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}
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},
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"options": [
{
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},
{
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
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},
"over_under": {
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 18:44:53",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Carshalton Athletic",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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},
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},
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{
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},
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{
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},
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"prob": 9.4
},
{
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},
{
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
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},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-26.2%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"edge": 0.0152,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.0,
"text": "+21.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.5,
"text": "-21.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2103,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10189.27,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.1,
"text": "-8.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0397,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.063,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Carshalton Athletic",
"sort_key": 1790.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.63,
"hero_label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"market_team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Carshalton Athletic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carshalton Athletic at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carshalton Athletic as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carshalton Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.063,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.63,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.63,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carshalton Athletic at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carshalton Athletic as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carshalton Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.063,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Carshalton Athletic 1.33 xG vs Eastbourne Borough 1.27 \u2192 Carshalton Athletic 36.6%",
"Market: Eastbourne Borough ~35.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Carshalton Athletic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.24,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Carshalton Athletic",
"market_prob": 35.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.38,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob": 40.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.99,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.99,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.84,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.84,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 40.4,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Eastbourne Borough\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.63,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Carshalton Athletic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Carshalton Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Carshalton Athletic 1.33 xG vs Eastbourne Borough 1.27 \u2192 Carshalton Athletic 36.6%",
"Market: Eastbourne Borough ~35.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Carshalton Athletic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.63,
"hero_label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Eastbourne Borough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Eastbourne Borough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Eastbourne Borough above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.63,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Eastbourne Borough higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.24,
"edge_pp": 1.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Carshalton Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 35.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.38,
"edge_pp": 5.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.63,
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 40.4,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Eastbourne Borough (35.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +7.1%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Carshalton Athletic, Market \u2192 Eastbourne Borough, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
"closing_odds": 2.24,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.64,
"entry_odds": 2.24,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.86 \u2192 3.31 \u2192 3.75) \u2014 net 7.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.62",
"3.50"
],
"display": "3.86 \u2192 3.31 \u2192 3.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.86"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.31"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.73,
3.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "eastbourne-borough",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Eastbourne Borough",
"away_team_id": 4704,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4704.webp",
"away_team_name": "Eastbourne Borough",
"away_team_public_id": "16ANbaJGr5TAfb",
"away_team_slug": "eastbourne-borough",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1596001,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Carshalton Athletic",
"home_team_id": 7707,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7707.webp",
"home_team_name": "Carshalton Athletic",
"home_team_public_id": "0x4Z61OKU2qTo4",
"home_team_slug": "carshalton-athletic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "carshalton-athletic",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Isthmian",
"league_id": 58,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/58.webp",
"league_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Isthmian",
"league_public_id": "5p6CYu3fPXwb1r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3XiquveTPgjZyh",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4052,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1554,
"implied_prob": 0.404,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.404,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.3535
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.377
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2758,
"best_odd": 3.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.404,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.3535
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2574
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4415,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.081,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.404,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.3535
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.359
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.1089,
"ev": -0.2439,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.73,
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1533,
"alpha_yes": 0.2108,
"best_no_odd": 2.66,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0984,
"edge_yes": -0.0984,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2103,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0534,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1214,
"implied_no": 0.3566,
"implied_yes": 0.6434,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.3561,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3712
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1214,
"implied_prob": 0.6439,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6231
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3712,
"p_final_yes": 0.6231,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1951,
"alpha_under": 0.1419,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.455,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.405,
"edge_over": -0.1399,
"edge_under": 0.1399,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1335,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0453,
"implied_over": 0.6219,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6231,
"implied_under": 0.3781,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3769,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1951,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1335,
"implied_prob": 0.6231,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5955
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1419,
"best_odd": 2.405,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.397
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5955,
"p_final_under": 0.397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carshalton Athletic at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carshalton Athletic as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carshalton Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Carshalton Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.063,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.081,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Carshalton Athletic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0152,
"market_prob": 0.3561,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.3561,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3712
},
"p_final": 0.3712,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0534,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1214,
"implied_prob": 0.6439,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6231
}
},
"edge": 0.0984,
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1419,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.405,
"edge": 0.02,
"market_prob": 0.3769,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1951,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1335,
"implied_prob": 0.6231,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5955
},
"p_final": 0.397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0453,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1419,
"best_odd": 2.405,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.397
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1399,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1596001,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Eastbourne Borough",
"home": "Carshalton Athletic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.106967,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.063,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1596001,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T18:44:56.137409+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Perdana Bukan Liga - Isthmian — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Welling United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Dartford | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Carshalton Athletic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Lewes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Leatherhead | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | St Albans City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Ramsgate | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Dulwich Hamlet | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Chatham Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Aveley | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Cray Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Maldon & Tiptree | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 17 | Cheshunt | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 18 | Brentwood Town | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Three Bridges | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 8 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | Ramsgate | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 3 | Welling United | 8 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | St Albans City | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Leatherhead | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Dulwich Hamlet | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Chatham Town | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Aveley | 8 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Three Bridges | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 5 |
| 10 | Carshalton Athletic | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 11 | Lewes | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 13 | Dartford | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 18 |
| 14 | Cray Wanderers | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 |
| 15 | Brentwood Town | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 8 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 5 |
| 21 | Cheshunt | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
