Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
35.86%
Odds adil
2.79
Seri
28.28%
Odds adil
3.54
Lawan Menang
35.86%
Odds adil
2.79
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 12.55%
Odds adil 7.97
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.79 | — | |
| Seri | 3.54 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 2.79 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 12.55% | 7.97 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 9.66% | 10.36 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 9.66% | 10.36 |
| 4 | 1-2 | 8.16% | 12.26 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 8.16% | 12.26 |
| 6 | 0-0 | 7.43% | 13.46 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.28% | 15.93 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 6.28% | 15.93 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 5.3% | 18.86 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.54% | 28.28 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.43%
13.46
|
9.66%
10.36
|
6.28%
15.93
|
2.72%
36.77
|
0.88%
113.13
|
0.23%
435.16
|
| 1 |
9.66%
10.36
|
12.55%
7.97
|
8.16%
12.26
|
3.54%
28.28
|
1.15%
87.02
|
0.3%
334.67
|
| 2 |
6.28%
15.93
|
8.16%
12.26
|
5.3%
18.86
|
2.3%
43.51
|
0.75%
133.89
|
0.19%
514.93
|
| 3 |
2.72%
36.77
|
3.54%
28.28
|
2.3%
43.51
|
1.0%
100.42
|
0.32%
309.02
|
0.08%
1189.06
|
| 4 |
0.88%
113.13
|
1.15%
87.02
|
0.75%
133.89
|
0.32%
309.02
|
0.11%
950.57
|
0.03%
3663.0
|
| 5 |
0.23%
435.16
|
0.3%
334.67
|
0.19%
514.93
|
0.08%
1189.06
|
0.03%
3663.0
|
0.01%
14084.51
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.45%
·
Adil:
224.42
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72.75% | 27.25% |
| 1.5 | 37.32% | 62.68% |
| 2.5 | 14.29% | 85.71% |
| 3.5 | 4.31% | 95.69% |
| 4.5 | 1.07% | 98.93% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72.75% | 27.25% |
| 1.5 | 37.32% | 62.68% |
| 2.5 | 14.29% | 85.71% |
| 3.5 | 4.31% | 95.69% |
| 4.5 | 1.07% | 98.93% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.43% | 13.46 |
| 1 | 19.31% | 5.18 |
| 2 | 25.10% | 3.98 |
| 3 | 21.76% | 4.60 |
| 4 | 14.14% | 7.07 |
| 5+ | 12.26% | 8.16 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 48.16%
Bawah/Under 2.5 51.84%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
35.86%
Seri
28.28%
Lawan Menang
35.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
48.16%
Bawah/Under 2.5
51.84%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
52.92%
Tidak
47.08%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.69% 17.57 | 10.65% 9.39 | 83.66% 1.2 |
| -1.5 | 16.34% 6.12 | — | 83.66% 1.2 |
| -1.0 | 16.34% 6.12 | 20.47% 4.89 | 63.2% 1.58 |
| -0.5 | 36.8% 2.72 | — | 63.2% 1.58 |
| 0 (PK) | 36.8% 2.72 | 26.39% 3.79 | 36.8% 2.72 |
| +0.5 | 63.2% 1.58 | — | 36.8% 2.72 |
| +1.0 | 63.2% 1.58 | 20.47% 4.89 | 16.34% 6.12 |
| +1.5 | 83.66% 1.2 | — | 16.34% 6.12 |
| +2.0 | 83.66% 1.2 | 10.65% 9.39 | 5.69% 17.57 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
