AI correctly predicted the Júbilo Iwata win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Júbilo Iwata Júbilo Iwata ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Júbilo Iwata | 36.1% | 32.5% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| JEF United Chiba | 34.2% | 42.2% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates JEF United Chiba's win probability at 42.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Júbilo Iwata win 4–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on JEF United Chiba. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Júbilo Iwata higher (44.1% vs model 36.1%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Júbilo Iwata win 4–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Júbilo Iwata 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · JEF United Chiba 34.2%
- xG · Júbilo Iwata 1.32 — JEF United Chiba 1.28
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Júbilo Iwata 2.39 · Draw 3.44 · JEF United Chiba 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Júbilo Iwata 38.8% · Draw 27.0% · JEF United Chiba 34.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Júbilo Iwata 2.87 · Draw 3.70 · JEF United Chiba 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Júbilo Iwata 32.5% · Draw 25.2% · JEF United Chiba 42.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Júbilo Iwata win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.21
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Júbilo Iwata win · Júbilo Iwata 4–2 JEF United Chiba
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates J\u00fabilo Iwata at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies J\u00fabilo Iwata as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (J\u00fabilo Iwata).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.0,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"steam_team": "JEF United Chiba",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (J\u00fabilo Iwata).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (J\u00fabilo Iwata)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (J\u00fabilo Iwata)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0977,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates J\u00fabilo Iwata at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies J\u00fabilo Iwata as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (J\u00fabilo Iwata).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: J\u00fabilo Iwata 1.32 xG vs JEF United Chiba 1.28 \u2192 J\u00fabilo Iwata 36.1%",
"Market: JEF United Chiba ~32.5% implied",
"Market Drift: JEF United Chiba odds \u2191 +8.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean J\u00fabilo Iwata with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.58,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"market_prob": 32.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.42,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "JEF United Chiba",
"market_prob": 42.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.18,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.12,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "JEF United Chiba",
"market_prob_pct": 42.24,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "JEF United Chiba"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates JEF United Chiba\u0027s win probability at 42.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "J\u00fabilo Iwata \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: J\u00fabilo Iwata 1.32 xG vs JEF United Chiba 1.28 \u2192 J\u00fabilo Iwata 36.1%",
"Market: JEF United Chiba ~32.5% implied",
"Market Drift: JEF United Chiba odds \u2191 +8.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean J\u00fabilo Iwata with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.0,
"hero_label": "JEF United Chiba",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "JEF United Chiba odds lengthened \u2191 +8.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on JEF United Chiba. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on JEF United Chiba.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on JEF United Chiba. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on JEF United Chiba."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices JEF United Chiba above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on JEF United Chiba (\u2191 +8.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "JEF United Chiba",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices JEF United Chiba higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.58,
"edge_pp": 3.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"market_prob_pct": 32.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.42,
"edge_pp": 4.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.23,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.0,
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "JEF United Chiba",
"market_prob_pct": 42.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on JEF United Chiba.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers JEF United Chiba (32.5%).",
"JEF United Chiba odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.0%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 J\u00fabilo Iwata, Market \u2192 JEF United Chiba, while JEF United Chiba odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.25,
"closing_odds": 2.21,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.25,
"entry_odds": 2.21,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on JEF United Chiba (8.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.71",
"2.46",
"2.21"
],
"display": "2.86 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
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"pick_team": "JEF United Chiba",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.21,
2.71,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,7.6 18.7,18.0 37.3,0.0 56.0,0.4",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.21"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
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},
{
"label_key": "current",
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}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "JEF United Chiba",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "JEF United Chiba",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "JEF United Chiba",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "JEF United Chiba",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "JEF United Chiba",
"away_team_id": 301,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/301.webp",
"away_team_name": "JEF United Chiba",
"away_team_public_id": "2Lm7Vsy0ZBNUna",
"away_team_slug": "jef-united-chiba",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1639001,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"home_team_id": 280,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/280.webp",
"home_team_name": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"home_team_public_id": "5m3LAnyrqRjJg9",
"home_team_slug": "jubilo-iwata",
"ht.home_team_slug": "jubilo-iwata",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J.League Cup",
"league_id": 101,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/101.webp",
"league_name": "J.League Cup",
"league_public_id": "40WbqykjJYnOS6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 10:00:00",
"public_id": "11SnkqxjRlUr7V",
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"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Iwata",
"venue_name": "Yamaha Stadium"
},
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"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
"alpha": 0.396,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1365,
"implied_prob": 0.4224,
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"draw": 0.2523,
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},
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"p_final": 0.3907
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.28,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
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},
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"ev_available": true,
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
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},
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"p_final": 0.3405
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": -0.1101,
"ev": -0.2433,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
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"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": 0.0977,
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"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
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"best_no_odd": 2.26,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0412,
"edge_yes": -0.0412,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0283,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0586,
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"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0912,
"implied_no": 0.4138,
"implied_yes": 0.5862,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
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}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4184,
"p_final_yes": 0.5788,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2362,
"alpha_under": 0.2147,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.03,
"edge_over": -0.0618,
"edge_under": 0.0618,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0964,
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"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0454,
"implied_over": 0.5438,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5428,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
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"edge": -0.0144,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"model_prob": 0.518,
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}
},
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"p_final_under": 0.4703,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Consensus-line +EV",
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],
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"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
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"Market aligns with model",
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],
"score": 5.2,
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},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (J\u00fabilo Iwata)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.0977,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates J\u00fabilo Iwata at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies J\u00fabilo Iwata as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "J\u00fabilo Iwata",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
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"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
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"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "validation",
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}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
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],
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"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
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],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"min_execution": 65,
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"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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"tier": "actionable",
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"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
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"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
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},
"version": "v2.5",
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"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"strength_delta": -2.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
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"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "J\u00fabilo Iwata"
},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
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}
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"side": "no",
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},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
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"edge": -0.0144,
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"implied_prob": 0.5428,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4703
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0618,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639001,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "JEF United Chiba",
"home": "J\u00fabilo Iwata"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639001,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T10:00:52.672745+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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