Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
53.48%
Odds adil
1.87
Seri
23.47%
Odds adil
4.26
Lawan Menang
23.05%
Odds adil
4.34
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 1
Kebarangkalian 10.04%
Odds adil 9.96
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 1.87 | — | |
| Seri | 4.26 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 4.34 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 10.04% | 9.96 |
| 2 | 2-1 | 9.74% | 10.27 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 8.23% | 12.15 |
| 4 | 2-0 | 7.98% | 12.53 |
| 5 | 3-1 | 6.3% | 15.88 |
| 6 | 1-2 | 6.13% | 16.33 |
| 7 | 2-2 | 5.94% | 16.83 |
| 8 | 0-1 | 5.18% | 19.32 |
| 9 | 3-0 | 5.16% | 19.37 |
| 10 | 0-0 | 4.24% | 23.57 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.24%
23.57
|
5.18%
19.32
|
3.16%
31.67
|
1.28%
77.88
|
0.39%
255.36
|
0.1%
1046.03
|
| 1 |
8.23%
12.15
|
10.04%
9.96
|
6.13%
16.33
|
2.49%
40.15
|
0.76%
131.63
|
0.19%
539.37
|
| 2 |
7.98%
12.53
|
9.74%
10.27
|
5.94%
16.83
|
2.42%
41.39
|
0.74%
135.7
|
0.18%
556.17
|
| 3 |
5.16%
19.37
|
6.3%
15.88
|
3.84%
26.03
|
1.56%
64.0
|
0.48%
209.82
|
0.12%
859.85
|
| 4 |
2.5%
39.94
|
3.05%
32.74
|
1.86%
53.67
|
0.76%
131.96
|
0.23%
432.71
|
0.06%
1773.05
|
| 5 |
0.97%
102.93
|
1.19%
84.37
|
0.72%
138.31
|
0.29%
340.14
|
0.09%
1114.83
|
0.02%
4566.21
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
1.61%
·
Adil:
62.13
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 85.63% | 14.37% |
| 1.5 | 57.75% | 42.25% |
| 2.5 | 30.71% | 69.29% |
| 3.5 | 13.22% | 86.78% |
| 4.5 | 4.74% | 95.26% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 70.48% | 29.52% |
| 1.5 | 34.46% | 65.54% |
| 2.5 | 12.49% | 87.51% |
| 3.5 | 3.55% | 96.45% |
| 4.5 | 0.83% | 99.17% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.24% | 23.57 |
| 1 | 13.41% | 7.46 |
| 2 | 21.18% | 4.72 |
| 3 | 22.31% | 4.48 |
| 4 | 17.63% | 5.67 |
| 5+ | 21.23% | 4.71 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 61.17%
Bawah/Under 2.5 38.83%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
53.48%
Seri
23.47%
Lawan Menang
23.05%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
61.17%
Bawah/Under 2.5
38.83%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
60.35%
Tidak
39.65%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 15.01% 6.66 | 16.47% 6.07 | 68.52% 1.46 |
| -1.5 | 31.48% 3.18 | — | 68.52% 1.46 |
| -1.0 | 31.48% 3.18 | 22.67% 4.41 | 45.85% 2.18 |
| -0.5 | 54.15% 1.85 | — | 45.85% 2.18 |
| 0 (PK) | 54.15% 1.85 | 22.04% 4.54 | 23.81% 4.2 |
| +0.5 | 76.19% 1.31 | — | 23.81% 4.2 |
| +1.0 | 76.19% 1.31 | 14.25% 7.02 | 9.55% 10.47 |
| +1.5 | 90.45% 1.11 | — | 9.55% 10.47 |
| +2.0 | 90.45% 1.11 | 6.51% 15.35 | 3.04% 32.9 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
