Kalkulator Poisson Bola Sepak
Enjin kebarangkalian perlawanan & odds adil berasaskan xG
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
MASUKKAN JANGKAAN GOL (XG)
Pilihan lanjutan
Model menggunakan Poisson dipertingkat untuk bola: kebarangkalian serí dan kegemaran sedikit lebih tinggi.
PAPARAN RAMALAN
Rumah Menang
40.89%
Odds adil
2.45
Seri
32.19%
Odds adil
3.11
Lawan Menang
26.92%
Odds adil
3.71
Jaringan paling mungkin
1 - 0
Kebarangkalian 15.31%
Odds adil 6.53
Kebarangkalian & kitaran
PERBANDINGAN ODDS ADIL
| Pasaran | Odds pasaran | Odds adil ? Harga adil dikira model berdasarkan kebarangkalian. | Edge ? Perbezaan antara odds bookmaker dan odds adil model. Edge positif menunjukkan potensi value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumah Menang | 2.45 | — | |
| Seri | 3.11 | — | |
| Lawan Menang | 3.71 | — |
Cari peluang value
Bandingkan odds adil model dengan harga bookmaker untuk temukan pertaruhan EV positif.
Lihat value bets →
Kebarangkalian jaringan tepat & odds adil
| # | Jaringan tepat | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-0 | 15.31% | 6.53 |
| 2 | 0-0 | 13.67% | 7.32 |
| 3 | 1-1 | 13.32% | 7.51 |
| 4 | 0-1 | 11.89% | 8.41 |
| 5 | 2-0 | 8.57% | 11.66 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 7.46% | 13.41 |
| 7 | 1-2 | 5.79% | 17.26 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 5.17% | 19.33 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 3.24% | 30.82 |
| 10 | 3-0 | 3.2% | 31.24 |
MATRIKS JARINGAN
Gol rumah ↓ · Gol lawan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.67%
7.32
|
11.89%
8.41
|
5.17%
19.33
|
1.5%
66.66
|
0.33%
306.47
|
0.06%
1760.56
|
| 1 |
15.31%
6.53
|
13.32%
7.51
|
5.79%
17.26
|
1.68%
59.51
|
0.37%
273.6
|
0.06%
1572.33
|
| 2 |
8.57%
11.66
|
7.46%
13.41
|
3.24%
30.82
|
0.94%
106.27
|
0.2%
488.52
|
0.04%
2808.99
|
| 3 |
3.2%
31.24
|
2.78%
35.91
|
1.21%
82.56
|
0.35%
284.66
|
0.08%
1308.9
|
0.01%
7518.8
|
| 4 |
0.9%
111.58
|
0.78%
128.25
|
0.34%
294.81
|
0.1%
1016.26
|
0.02%
4672.9
|
0.0%
27027.03
|
| 5 |
0.2%
498.01
|
0.17%
572.41
|
0.08%
1315.79
|
0.02%
4545.45
|
0.0%
20833.33
|
0.0%
125000.0
|
Jaringan lain (mana-mana pihak 6+ gol)
0.13%
·
Adil:
742.94
JUMLAH GOL SETIAP PASUKAN
Pasukan rumah
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67.37% | 32.63% |
| 1.5 | 30.83% | 69.17% |
| 2.5 | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| 3.5 | 2.72% | 97.28% |
| 4.5 | 0.59% | 99.41% |
Pasukan lawan
| Atas/Over | Bawah/Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 1.5 | 21.66% | 78.34% |
| 2.5 | 5.8% | 94.2% |
| 3.5 | 1.2% | 98.8% |
| 4.5 | 0.2% | 99.8% |
JUMLAH GOL PERLAWANAN
| Gol | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.67% | 7.32 |
| 1 | 27.20% | 3.68 |
| 2 | 27.07% | 3.69 |
| 3 | 17.95% | 5.57 |
| 4 | 8.93% | 11.20 |
| 5+ | 5.18% | 19.32 |
|
Atas/Over 2.5 32.06%
Bawah/Under 2.5 67.94%
|
||
KEBARANGKALIAN PASARAN UTAMA
1X2
Rumah Menang
40.89%
Seri
32.19%
Lawan Menang
26.92%
Over / Under 2.5
Atas/Over 2.5
32.06%
Bawah/Under 2.5
67.94%
Kedua jaring (BTTS)
Ya
39.15%
Tidak
60.85%
Kebarangkalian Asian Handicap
?
Kebarangkalian dikira daripada model jaringan Poisson.
Push digunakan untuk line Asian Handicap nombor bulat.
Handicap pasukan rumah
| Line | Sisi rumah | Push | Sisi lawan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.43% 18.41 | 11.72% 8.53 | 82.85% 1.21 |
| -1.5 | 17.15% 5.83 | — | 82.85% 1.21 |
| -1.0 | 17.15% 5.83 | 24.08% 4.15 | 58.76% 1.7 |
| -0.5 | 41.24% 2.43 | — | 58.76% 1.7 |
| 0 (PK) | 41.24% 2.43 | 30.61% 3.27 | 28.16% 3.55 |
| +0.5 | 71.84% 1.39 | — | 28.16% 3.55 |
| +1.0 | 71.84% 1.39 | 18.71% 5.35 | 9.45% 10.58 |
| +1.5 | 90.55% 1.1 | — | 9.45% 10.58 |
| +2.0 | 90.55% 1.1 | 7.07% 14.14 | 2.38% 42.09 |
BAGAIMANA MODEL BERFUNGSI
Taburan Poisson
Input xG
Pelarasan
Output kebarangkalian
Ikut PMF Poisson (Wikipedia EN).
Had model Poisson
Model kuat, ada had
- Gol bebas = anggapan ringkas
- Kad merah/pecahan status perlawanan bukan fokus model
- xG negatif ekstrem kurang jitu
KONGSI ALAT INI
Cara guna kalkulator Poisson
- Masukkan xG tuan
- Masukkan xG lawan
- Klik kira (kemas kini automatik)
- Semak kebarangkalian jaringan tepat/odds adil & pasar
Untuk analisis & kelayakan data bola.
Mengapa Poisson sesuai xG
xG tanda kualiti peluang, bukan hanya jaringan lalu
Faedah antaranya
- Kurangkan nasib muka gol
- Selaras ramalan & prestasi asas
- Kadar wajar drp kebarangkalian
- Cari value banding model vs bukuodds
Poisson jadi asas model AI bola
Soalan lazim (FAQ)
Anggaran skor/ pasar dari xG, baca perlawanan & kupon
Sesuai untuk jaring, tambah xG+ kontek perlawanan
Ya: kebarang/ nilai adil, banding b bookie (bukan sinyal beli).
Pilih xG pra perlawanan (kekuatan, rentak, pihak lawan) — sumber tersendiri
Ya. Dari xG, grid skor penuh; model sama 1X2 & BTTS.
Kebarang. kedua jaring. Ya/Tidak model xG-Poisson sama dengan jadual skor
