Previsões / Copa do Mundo 2026 / Senegal vs Iraque

Senegal vs Iraque

Group I
Senegal Senegal
Jun 26, 2026 - 19:00
5 1.79
0 0.91
Iraque Iraque

Betting Signal

Modelo diz
Senegal 56.7%
O mercado diz
Senegal 78.0%
Diferença
21.3 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Senegal (78.0%).

Senegal — market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (-21.3 pp).

Mercado vs Modelo

Senegal
56.7% vs 78.01%
-21.3 pp
Draw
25.9% vs 13.93%
+12.0 pp
Iraque
17.4% vs 8.06%
+9.3 pp

Maior lacuna

Senegal -21.3 pp

O mercado está substancialmente mais otimista em relação a Senegal do que ao modelo.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Casa de apostas premium stake: novos utilizadores podem usar o código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registar
Previsão de IA
Senegal 56.7%
Draw 25.9%
Iraque 17.4%

Gerado a partir de simulação de Poisson ajustada por Elo. Não são probabilidades de casas de apostas.

Mostrar dados completos do modelo
Probabilidades de linhas Poisson
Linha Mais Menos
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Expectativas do jogo
Mais de 2,5 gols
50.6%
Balanced
Menos de 2,5 gols
49.4%
Ambos marcam
51.2%
Balanced
Clean sheet provável
48.8%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 51.2% · No 48.8% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Placares mais prováveis
Placar Probabilidade
1-1 12.4%
2-0 10.8%
1-0 10.6%
2-1 9.8%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.4% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase de Partida: Finished

Ciclo de vida de decisão

Estágio atual: Awaiting CLV

  1. Predição gerada
  2. Mercado comparado
    Entrada Pendente
  3. Validação aprovada
  4. Fechamento gravado
    Fechando 1.25
  5. CLV avaliado
    CLV Pendente Awaiting CLV calculation
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