Previsões / Copa do Mundo 2026 / Argélia vs Áustria

Argélia vs Áustria

Group J
Argélia Argélia
Jun 28, 2026 - 02:00
3 1.21
3 1.49
Áustria Áustria

Betting Signal

Modelo diz
Áustria 42.2%
O mercado diz
Draw 25.6%
Diferença
18.2 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Draw (25.6%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Áustria, Market → Draw, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Mercado vs Modelo

Argélia
29.2% vs 27.44%
+1.8 pp
Draw
28.7% vs 46.93%
-18.2 pp
Áustria
42.2% vs 25.63%
+16.6 pp

Maior lacuna

Draw -18.2 pp

O mercado está substancialmente mais otimista em relação a Draw do que ao modelo.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Casa de apostas premium stake: novos utilizadores podem usar o código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registar
Previsão de IA
Argélia 29.2%
Draw 28.7%
Áustria 42.2%

Gerado a partir de simulação de Poisson ajustada por Elo. Não são probabilidades de casas de apostas.

Mostrar dados completos do modelo
Probabilidades de linhas Poisson
Linha Mais Menos
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Expectativas do jogo
Mais de 2,5 gols
50.6%
Balanced
Menos de 2,5 gols
49.4%
Ambos marcam
55.9%
Balanced
Clean sheet provável
44.1%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 55.9% · No 44.1% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Placares mais prováveis
Placar Probabilidade
1-1 13.7%
1-2 9.0%
0-1 8.4%
0-0 8.3%
0-2 7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase de Partida: Finished

Ciclo de vida de decisão

Estágio atual: Awaiting CLV

  1. Predição gerada
  2. Mercado comparado
    Entrada Pendente
  3. Validação aprovada
  4. Fechamento gravado
    Fechando 2.07
  5. CLV avaliado
    CLV Pendente Awaiting CLV calculation
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