Mga Prediksyon / World Cup 2026 / Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Group H
Uruguay Uruguay
Jun 21, 2026 - 22:00
2 1.90
2 0.80
Cape Verde Cape Verde

Betting Signal

Sabi ng model
Uruguay 61.8%
sabi ng market
Uruguay 67.8%
Pagkakaiba
6.0 pp
Katayuan
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Uruguay (67.8%).

Uruguay — market direction supports the model lean.

Market kumpara sa Modelo

Uruguay
61.8% vs 67.8%
-6.0 pp
Draw
24.3% vs 22.19%
+2.1 pp
Cape Verde
13.9% vs 10.01%
+3.9 pp

Pinakamalaking Gap

Uruguay -6.0 pp

Ang merkado ay higit na malakas sa Uruguay kaysa sa modelo.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Pagtataya ng AI
Uruguay 61.8%
Draw 24.3%
Cape Verde 13.9%

Binuo mula sa Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Hindi bookmaker logro.

Ipakita ang Buong Data ng Modelo
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.5% 23.5%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
48.3%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
51.7%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 48.3% · No 51.7% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Pinaka-malamang na Scorelines
Score Probability
2-0 12.1%
1-1 11.6%
1-0 11.4%
2-1 9.7%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 12.1% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Yugto ng Pagtutugma: Finished

Siklo ng Buhay ng Desisyon

Kasalukuyang yugto: Awaiting CLV

  1. Nabuo ang Prediksyon
  2. Market Kumpara
    Pagpasok Nakabinbin
  3. Naipasa ang Validation
  4. Pagsara Naitala
    Pagsasara 1.44
  5. Nasuri ang CLV
    CLV Nakabinbin Awaiting CLV calculation
Bumalik sa predictions ngayon
Group H fixtures