The model missed the final outcome (Uruguay U18 win 0–1).
The model had projected Poland U18 at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 Poland U18 Uruguay U18 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland U18 | 40.9% | 45.1% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.4% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Uruguay U18 | 29.7% | 28.5% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Uruguay U18 win 0–1。
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Poland U18; match finished Uruguay U18
市场启示
The full-time result was Uruguay U18 win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Poland U18 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Uruguay U18 29.6%
- xG · Poland U18 1.42 — Uruguay U18 1.18
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 08:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Poland U18 2.02 · Draw 3.45 · Uruguay U18 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Poland U18 45.1% · Draw 26.4% · Uruguay U18 28.5%
- Bookmaker · betfury
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 08:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Poland U18 2.02 · Draw 3.45 · Uruguay U18 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Poland U18 45.1% · Draw 26.4% · Uruguay U18 28.5%
- Bookmaker · betfury
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Uruguay U18 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
