The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected El Bayadh at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 El Bayadh Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Bayadh | 39.0% | 50.5% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.7% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| GC Mascara | 31.5% | 18.8% | +12.7 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates GC Mascara's win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.8%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on GC Mascara.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on El Bayadh by 12.7 percentage points (26.3% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · El Bayadh 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · GC Mascara 31.5%
- xG · El Bayadh 1.38 — GC Mascara 1.22
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · El Bayadh 1.76 · Draw 2.90 · GC Mascara 4.73
- Implied 1X2 · El Bayadh 50.5% · Draw 30.7% · GC Mascara 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · El Bayadh 1.76 · Draw 2.90 · GC Mascara 4.73
- Implied 1X2 · El Bayadh 50.5% · Draw 30.7% · GC Mascara 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
36/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · El Bayadh 0–0 GC Mascara
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f3c9a0629523f938126b30336ed81fbe40980346ec4b84b40d202eeb7a8f3152",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.3897,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "El Bayadh",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1156,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5053,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.76
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "El Bayadh Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.98,
"market_odds": 1.76,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": -17.9,
"value_pct": -31.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "El Bayadh or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "El Bayadh or GC Mascara",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or GC Mascara",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "El Bayadh or GC Mascara",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "El Bayadh"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 49.0,
"implied_prob": 21.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "GC Mascara Win",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 4.73
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "GC Mascara",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 18.8,
"draw": 30.67,
"home": 50.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 15:02:20",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:33:44",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "El Bayadh",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.53,
"gap_pp": -11.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.67,
"gap_pp": -1.13,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.8,
"gap_pp": 12.69,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.83,
"gap_pp": 13.37,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.17,
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
"closing": 4.73,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
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"implied_closing_pct": 34.83,
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},
{
"closing": 1.4,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0202,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.4011,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1944,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5712
},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2349,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4213
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3023,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.2,
"text": "-30.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2458,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.6,
"text": "+24.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2458,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10371.22,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1508,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0163,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.3737,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1508,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.39
},
"p_final": 0.39,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1472,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0718,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6039
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2628,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10236.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.2,
"text": "-21.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0135,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "El Bayadh",
"sort_key": 1796.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.68,
"hero_label": "GC Mascara",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"market_team": "El Bayadh",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "El Bayadh",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4896,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Bayadh at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Bayadh as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Bayadh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side El Bayadh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.74 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640802 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.74 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2116,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.68,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4896,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Bayadh at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Bayadh as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Bayadh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side El Bayadh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.74 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640802 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.74 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2116,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Bayadh 1.38 xG vs GC Mascara 1.22 \u2192 El Bayadh 39.0%",
"Market: El Bayadh ~50.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours El Bayadh, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.56,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "El Bayadh",
"market_prob": 50.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.68,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "GC Mascara",
"market_prob": 18.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.28,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.28,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.16,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.16,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 12.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "GC Mascara",
"market_prob_pct": 18.8,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates GC Mascara\u0027s win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 18.8%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 12.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "El Bayadh",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Bayadh 1.38 xG vs GC Mascara 1.22 \u2192 El Bayadh 39.0%",
"Market: El Bayadh ~50.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours El Bayadh, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.68,
"hero_label": "GC Mascara",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on GC Mascara.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on GC Mascara.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors GC Mascara more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "GC Mascara",
"largest_gap_pp": 12.7,
"lead": "The model rates GC Mascara considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.56,
"edge_pp": -11.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "El Bayadh",
"market_prob_pct": 50.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.13,
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.68,
"edge_pp": 12.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "GC Mascara",
"market_prob_pct": 18.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers El Bayadh (50.5%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -7.7%, 2/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 El Bayadh, Market \u2192 El Bayadh, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.14,
"closing_odds": 4.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.14,
"entry_odds": 4.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.30 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.00) \u2014 net 7.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"3.08",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 58m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
2.9,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,12.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gc-mascara",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "GC Mascara",
"away_team_id": 927,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/927.webp",
"away_team_name": "GC Mascara",
"away_team_public_id": "2sh1X7TdlipcCL",
"away_team_slug": "gc-mascara",
"country_code": "DZ",
"country_display_name": "Algeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dz.svg",
"country_id": 2,
"country_name": "Algeria",
"fixture_id": 1640802,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Algeria",
"home_team_display_name": "El Bayadh",
"home_team_id": 10743,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10743.webp",
"home_team_name": "El Bayadh",
"home_team_public_id": "1pDPxCoCEjdzKz",
"home_team_slug": "el-bayadh",
"ht.home_team_slug": "el-bayadh",
"league_country": "Algeria",
"league_country_display": "Algeria",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 2 Algeria",
"league_id": 187,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/187.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 2 Algeria",
"league_public_id": "1UI0IeYVucmepu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1OvTCVjrYJZjM9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1619,
"best_odd": 4.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.188,
"draw": 0.3067,
"home": 0.5053
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2086
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4424,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.1251,
"implied_prob": 0.3067,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.188,
"draw": 0.3067,
"home": 0.5053
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3017
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4959,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0573,
"ev": -0.2116,
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.188,
"draw": 0.3067,
"home": 0.5053
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.448
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.73,
"edge": 0.1035,
"ev": 0.4896,
"implied_prob": 0.2114,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.1785,
"ev": -0.3142,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1944,
"alpha_yes": 0.1414,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.29,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1416,
"edge_yes": 0.1416,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3023,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1318,
"ev_yes": 0.2458,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0437,
"implied_no": 0.5976,
"implied_yes": 0.4024,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1944,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5712
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4213
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5712,
"p_final_yes": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1508,
"alpha_under": 0.2073,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.42,
"edge_over": 0.1128,
"edge_under": -0.1128,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0718,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1425,
"implied_over": 0.3692,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3737,
"implied_under": 0.6308,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6263,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1508,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.39
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6039
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.39,
"p_final_under": 0.6039,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4896,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4896,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Bayadh at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Bayadh as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Bayadh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side El Bayadh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.74 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640802 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.74 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours El Bayadh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2116,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0573,
"ev": -0.2116,
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "El Bayadh"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.4011,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1944,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5712
},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4213
}
},
"edge": 0.1416,
"ev": 0.2458,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1508,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0163,
"market_prob": 0.3737,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1508,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.39
},
"p_final": 0.39,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0718,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6039
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1128,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1640802,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "GC Mascara",
"home": "El Bayadh"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.133715,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2458,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2116,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640802,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:02:22.548549+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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