AI correctly predicted the USM Annaba win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 USM Annaba USM Annaba ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (USM Annaba win 2–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · USM Annaba 1.38 — Paradou AC 1.22
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result USM Annaba win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
USM Annaba win · USM Annaba 2–1 Paradou AC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0762,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.6,
"text": "-7.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0609,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "USM Annaba",
"sort_key": 1784.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"alert_team": "USM Annaba",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "USM Annaba",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates USM Annaba at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies USM Annaba as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "USM Annaba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0762,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.61,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"steam_team": "USM Annaba",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates USM Annaba at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies USM Annaba as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "USM Annaba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0762,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: USM Annaba 1.38 xG vs Paradou AC 1.22 \u2192 USM Annaba 39.0%",
"Market: Draw ~35.7% implied",
"Market Drift: USM Annaba odds \u2191 +17.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours USM Annaba, but the market has moved away from USM Annaba.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "USM Annaba",
"market_prob": 35.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.61,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 38.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Paradou AC",
"market_prob": 26.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.89,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.89,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.15,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "USM Annaba"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 38.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.5%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "USM Annaba",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: USM Annaba 1.38 xG vs Paradou AC 1.22 \u2192 USM Annaba 39.0%",
"Market: Draw ~35.7% implied",
"Market Drift: USM Annaba odds \u2191 +17.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours USM Annaba, but the market has moved away from USM Annaba.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "USM Annaba odds lengthened \u2191 +17.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, USM Annaba has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from USM Annaba \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, USM Annaba has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from USM Annaba \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, USM Annaba has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on USM Annaba."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.27,
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "USM Annaba",
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.61,
"edge_pp": -8.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.15,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.33,
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Paradou AC",
"market_prob_pct": 26.15,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from USM Annaba \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (35.7%).",
"However, USM Annaba has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.8%, 6/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 USM Annaba, Market \u2192 Draw, while USM Annaba odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.92,
"closing_odds": 2.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.92,
"entry_odds": 2.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books lengthened USM Annaba together (17.8% drift, score 75) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.49",
"2.20",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.44 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 2m",
"pick_team": "USM Annaba",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.44"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.49,
2.44,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.6 56.0,7.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: USM Annaba odds \u2191 +17.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "USM Annaba",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: USM Annaba odds \u2191 +17.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from USM Annaba while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "USM Annaba",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "USM Annaba",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "USM Annaba",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "paradou-ac",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Paradou AC",
"away_team_id": 915,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/915.webp",
"away_team_name": "Paradou AC",
"away_team_public_id": "0guNdnrdkLpsW3",
"away_team_slug": "paradou-ac",
"country_code": "DZ",
"country_display_name": "Algeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dz.svg",
"country_id": 2,
"country_name": "Algeria",
"fixture_id": 1641991,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Algeria",
"home_team_display_name": "USM Annaba",
"home_team_id": 1069,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1069.webp",
"home_team_name": "USM Annaba",
"home_team_public_id": "5mn9kWyLAPH7PN",
"home_team_slug": "usm-annaba",
"ht.home_team_slug": "usm-annaba",
"league_country": "Algeria",
"league_country_display": "Algeria",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 2 Algeria",
"league_id": 187,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/187.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 2 Algeria",
"league_public_id": "1UI0IeYVucmepu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1NffKhX0LhfGsF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2759,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2615,
"draw": 0.3815,
"home": 0.357
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2762
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3919,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1897,
"implied_prob": 0.3815,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2615,
"draw": 0.3815,
"home": 0.357
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3478
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.428,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.357,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2615,
"draw": 0.3815,
"home": 0.357
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.371
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": 0.0707,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.1338,
"ev": -0.3117,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0297,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1944,
"alpha_yes": 0.1414,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.31,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1389,
"edge_yes": 0.1389,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2613,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1376,
"ev_yes": 0.2566,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.05,
"implied_no": 0.5949,
"implied_yes": 0.4051,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1944,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5711
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"best_odd": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.05,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4213
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5711,
"p_final_yes": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1407,
"alpha_under": 0.1934,
"best_over_odd": 3.17,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.625,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.33,
"edge_over": 0.1462,
"edge_under": -0.1462,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5279,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0635,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1547,
"implied_over": 0.3358,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3363,
"implied_under": 0.6642,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6637,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1407,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0635,
"implied_prob": 0.3363,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3568
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1934,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.6637,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6355
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3568,
"p_final_under": 0.6355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5279,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5279,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates USM Annaba at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies USM Annaba as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "USM Annaba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from USM Annaba, but the model still strongly favours USM Annaba.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0762,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.357,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "USM Annaba"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.4011,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1944,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5711
},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.05,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"best_odd": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.05,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4213
}
},
"edge": 0.1389,
"ev": 0.2566,
"implied_prob": 0.4051,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1407,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0205,
"market_prob": 0.3363,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1407,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0635,
"implied_prob": 0.3363,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3568
},
"p_final": 0.3568,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0635,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1934,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.6637,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6355
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1462,
"ev": 0.5279,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641991,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5279,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2566,
"implied_prob": 0.4051,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2566,
"implied_prob": 0.4051,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paradou AC",
"home": "USM Annaba"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.178113,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5279,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0762,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641991,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T13:59:44.349257+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho USM Annaba & Paradou AC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ligue 2 Algeria — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Annaba | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | JSM Skikda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | NC Magra | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Azazga | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | MO Constantine | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | MSP Batna | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Khroub | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | MO Béjaïa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Paradou AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | NRB Beni Oulbene | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | IRB Nezla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | US Chaouia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | JS Jijel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Teleghma | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | CA Batna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | CR Béni Thour | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Annaba | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | JSM Skikda | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | MO Béjaïa | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Azazga | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 | Paradou AC | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | NC Magra | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Teleghma | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 8 | MO Constantine | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | MSP Batna | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | NRB Beni Oulbene | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | CA Batna | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | CR Béni Thour | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Khroub | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | IRB Nezla | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | US Chaouia | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | JS Jijel | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
