The model missed the final outcome (Xi'an Ronghai win 1–0).
The model had projected Guizhou Zhucheng at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Guizhou Zhucheng Xi'an Ronghai ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi'an Ronghai | 30.6% | 28.9% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 31.1% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Guizhou Zhucheng | 39.9% | 40.0% | -0.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Xi'an Ronghai win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Xi'an Ronghai win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Xi'an Ronghai 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Guizhou Zhucheng 40.0%
- xG · Xi'an Ronghai 1.20 — Guizhou Zhucheng 1.40
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Xi'an Ronghai 3.05 · Draw 2.84 · Guizhou Zhucheng 2.22
- Implied 1X2 · Xi'an Ronghai 29.0% · Draw 31.1% · Guizhou Zhucheng 39.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Xi'an Ronghai 3.11 · Draw 2.89 · Guizhou Zhucheng 2.25
- Implied 1X2 · Xi'an Ronghai 28.9% · Draw 31.1% · Guizhou Zhucheng 40.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Xi'an Ronghai win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
91/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.11
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Xi'an Ronghai win · Xi'an Ronghai 1–0 Guizhou Zhucheng
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"scores": [
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{
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"pick_key": "12",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.23,
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{
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},
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},
"ev_yes": 0.086,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 8.6,
"text": "+8.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.086,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10077.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1007,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0858,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"sort_key": 1778.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +26.1%",
"alert_team": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.66,
"hero_label": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"market_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 86,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guizhou Zhucheng at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guizhou Zhucheng as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1007,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 90,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.66,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +26.1%",
"steam_team": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guizhou Zhucheng at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guizhou Zhucheng as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1007,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Xi\u0027an Ronghai 1.20 xG vs Guizhou Zhucheng 1.40 \u2192 Guizhou Zhucheng 39.9%",
"Market: Guizhou Zhucheng ~40.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Xi\u0027an Ronghai odds \u2191 +26.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guizhou Zhucheng with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.66,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"market_prob": 28.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.64,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.03,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"market_prob": 39.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.05,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.05,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.09,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.09,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"market_prob_pct": 28.92,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 1.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 90,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Guizhou Zhucheng \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 100,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Xi\u0027an Ronghai 1.20 xG vs Guizhou Zhucheng 1.40 \u2192 Guizhou Zhucheng 39.9%",
"Market: Guizhou Zhucheng ~40.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Xi\u0027an Ronghai odds \u2191 +26.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guizhou Zhucheng with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.66,
"hero_label": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai odds lengthened \u2191 +26.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Xi\u0027an Ronghai.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Xi\u0027an Ronghai."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Xi\u0027an Ronghai (\u2191 +26.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Xi\u0027an Ronghai."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.66,
"edge_pp": 1.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"market_prob_pct": 28.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.64,
"edge_pp": -1.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.12,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.03,
"edge_pp": -0.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"market_prob_pct": 39.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Xi\u0027an Ronghai.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guizhou Zhucheng (40.0%).",
"However, Xi\u0027an Ronghai has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +26.1%, 6/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Guizhou Zhucheng \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.15,
"closing_odds": 3.11,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.15,
"entry_odds": 3.11,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +26.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 26.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books lengthened Xi\u0027an Ronghai together (26.1% drift, score 86) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.11",
"2.75",
"2.38"
],
"display": "3.15 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 31m",
"pick_team": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
3.11,
3.05,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.5 56.0,2.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Xi\u0027an Ronghai odds \u2191 +26.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Xi\u0027an Ronghai odds \u2191 +26.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +26.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 86,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +26.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"steam_score": 86,
"steam_team_name": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "guizhou-zhucheng",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"away_team_id": 25775,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25775.webp",
"away_team_name": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"away_team_public_id": "2QOsBXyeperBHW",
"away_team_slug": "guizhou-zhucheng",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1638465,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_display_name": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"home_team_id": 20674,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20674.webp",
"home_team_name": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai",
"home_team_public_id": "50kmdXPnIEaoui",
"home_team_slug": "xi-an-ronghai",
"ht.home_team_slug": "xi-an-ronghai",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "League Two Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_id": 929,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/929.webp",
"league_name": "League Two Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_public_id": "0OTBiwD3vrqemv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 08:00:00",
"public_id": "0kWmZLgzVPfffp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Taiyuan",
"venue_name": "Taiyuan University Football Stadium - Artificial grass"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.45,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0,
"ev": -0.1007,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.3112,
"home": 0.2892
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4389,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.3112,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.3112,
"home": 0.2892
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.304
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2926,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.2892,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.3112,
"home": 0.2892
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.294
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0448,
"ev": -0.1007,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.0513,
"ev": -0.1482,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0497,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2173,
"alpha_yes": 0.1975,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0809,
"edge_yes": 0.0809,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2094,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.107,
"ev_yes": 0.086,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0446,
"implied_no": 0.5379,
"implied_yes": 0.4621,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.107,
"implied_prob": 0.5384,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5207
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1975,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.4616,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4777
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5207,
"p_final_yes": 0.4777,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1528,
"alpha_under": 0.2102,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.48,
"edge_over": 0.1005,
"edge_under": -0.1005,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0476,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1158,
"implied_over": 0.3815,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3814,
"implied_under": 0.6185,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6186,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0476,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3968
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.6186,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5974
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3968,
"p_final_under": 0.5974,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guizhou Zhucheng at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guizhou Zhucheng as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guizhou Zhucheng).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1007,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0,
"ev": -0.1007,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1975,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0161,
"market_prob": 0.4616,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.107,
"implied_prob": 0.5384,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5207
},
"p_final": 0.4777,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0446,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1975,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.4616,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4777
}
},
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"side": "yes",
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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},
"match_id": 1638465,
"match_regime": {
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"code": "clear_edge",
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},
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},
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"risk_band": "strong",
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{
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],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Xi\u0027an Ronghai"
},
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"side": "over",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1007,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638465,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T08:00:42.677107+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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