AI correctly predicted the Guizhou Zhucheng win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Guizhou Zhucheng Guizhou Zhucheng ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Guizhou Zhucheng win 2–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Guizhou Zhucheng 1.38 — Shanghai Port II 1.22
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guizhou Zhucheng win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Guizhou Zhucheng win · Guizhou Zhucheng 2–1 Shanghai Port II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3b3731f55cddeed93a9a98fd29294a170bbb7d2bc3ec6b98b46ccce722581525",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Shanghai Port II and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Shanghai Port II"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": -0.0865,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.9
}
],
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -13.7,
"value_pct": -26.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
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"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Guizhou Zhucheng or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Guizhou Zhucheng or Shanghai Port II",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Shanghai Port II",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng or Shanghai Port II",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 22.8,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Shanghai Port II Win",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0183,
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"implied_prob": 0.5506,
"model_prob": 0.456,
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"p_final": 0.4677,
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"yes": {
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}
},
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"ev_no": -0.2111,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.1,
"text": "-21.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1152,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.5,
"text": "+11.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10253.68,
"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"edge": 0.0132,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.7,
"text": "+14.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10132.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1811,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0103,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"sort_key": 1797.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"alert_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2282,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guizhou Zhucheng at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guizhou Zhucheng as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Guizhou Zhucheng \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638468 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1811,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"steam_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2282,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guizhou Zhucheng at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guizhou Zhucheng as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Guizhou Zhucheng \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638468 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1811,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guizhou Zhucheng 1.38 xG vs Shanghai Port II 1.22 \u2192 Guizhou Zhucheng 39.0%",
"Market Drift: Guizhou Zhucheng odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Guizhou Zhucheng, but the market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Shanghai Port II",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.22,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guizhou Zhucheng 1.38 xG vs Shanghai Port II 1.22 \u2192 Guizhou Zhucheng 39.0%",
"Market Drift: Guizhou Zhucheng odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Guizhou Zhucheng, but the market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Guizhou Zhucheng odds lengthened \u2191 +5.6%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Shanghai Port II",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Guizhou Zhucheng (39.0%).",
"Guizhou Zhucheng odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.6%, 1/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "Ready to validate",
"clv_status": "ready",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 42m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Guizhou Zhucheng (swing 1.95 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.90) \u2014 net 5.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.90",
"1.85",
"1.80"
],
"display": "1.95 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 42m",
"pick_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
1.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "shanghai-port-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Shanghai Port II",
"away_team_id": 23289,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23289.webp",
"away_team_name": "Shanghai Port II",
"away_team_public_id": "2d9z78dAvzXMfV",
"away_team_slug": "shanghai-port-ii",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1638468,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_display_name": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"home_team_id": 25775,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25775.webp",
"home_team_name": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"home_team_public_id": "2QOsBXyeperBHW",
"home_team_slug": "guizhou-zhucheng",
"ht.home_team_slug": "guizhou-zhucheng",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "League Two Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_id": 929,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/929.webp",
"league_name": "League Two Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_public_id": "0OTBiwD3vrqemv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-06 11:30:00",
"public_id": "395WYrTzTso0zw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Guiyang",
"venue_name": "Guiyang Olympic Sports Center"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2627,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0103,
"implied_prob": 0.232,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.232,
"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.4762
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2538
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2984,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.232,
"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.4762
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2929
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5221,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0452,
"ev": -0.1811,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.232,
"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.4762
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.431
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0585,
"ev": 0.2282,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.0842,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.1366,
"ev": -0.2596,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2124,
"alpha_yes": 0.1931,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0922,
"edge_yes": 0.0922,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2111,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1167,
"ev_yes": 0.1152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.046,
"implied_no": 0.5482,
"implied_yes": 0.4518,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2124,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1167,
"implied_prob": 0.5506,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5305
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.4494,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4677
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5305,
"p_final_yes": 0.4677,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1573,
"alpha_under": 0.2163,
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.52,
"edge_over": 0.0815,
"edge_under": -0.0815,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1125,
"implied_over": 0.4005,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3979,
"implied_under": 0.5995,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6021,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.3979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4111
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5839
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4111,
"p_final_under": 0.5839,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2282,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2282,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guizhou Zhucheng at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guizhou Zhucheng as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guizhou Zhucheng",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Guizhou Zhucheng \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638468 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Guizhou Zhucheng, but the model still strongly favours Guizhou Zhucheng.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1811,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0452,
"ev": -0.1811,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Guizhou Zhucheng"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0183,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"edge": -0.0201,
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},
"p_final": 0.4677,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.046,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.046,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0922,
"ev": 0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.4518,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0132,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4111,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0815,
"ev": 0.1472,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638468,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
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},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Shanghai Port II",
"home": "Guizhou Zhucheng"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.062669,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1152,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1811,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638468,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-06T11:00:30.369910+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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