The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Puente Genil at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Puente Genil Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puente Genil | 35.2% | 33.7% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.5% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Marbella | 35.2% | 33.8% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Puente Genil 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Marbella 35.2%
- xG · Puente Genil 1.30 — Marbella 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Puente Genil 2.72 · Draw 2.82 · Marbella 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Puente Genil 33.7% · Draw 32.5% · Marbella 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Puente Genil 2.72 · Draw 2.82 · Marbella 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Puente Genil 33.7% · Draw 32.5% · Marbella 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
29/100
Monitoring Confidence
35/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.82
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Puente Genil 0–0 Marbella
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f529f9f7fe6ffdddb48ec38ba349abd97f616f26a840b2a025299eb5c77079d5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Puente Genil and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Puente Genil"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Puente Genil",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0149,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3369,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.72
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.72,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Puente Genil Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.97,
"market_odds": 2.72,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -1.6,
"value_pct": -4.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Puente Genil or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Puente Genil or Marbella",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Marbella",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Puente Genil or Marbella",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Puente Genil"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -4.2,
"implied_prob": 36.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Puente Genil Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 2.72
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Marbella",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.81,
"draw": 32.5,
"home": 33.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 16:00:41",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 15:32:04",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Puente Genil",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.69,
"gap_pp": 1.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.5,
"gap_pp": -2.85,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.81,
"gap_pp": 1.36,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.59,
"gap_pp": 3.61,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.41,
"gap_pp": -3.61,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.72,
"early": 2.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.71,
"early": 2.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.81,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.59,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.41,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0119,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0218,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5217.44,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5159,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.4841,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4778
},
"p_final": 0.5228,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0462,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0851,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.5159,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5228
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0135,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0135,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1796.625,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0658,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0658,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Puente Genil",
"sort_key": 1783.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"alert_team": "Marbella",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.85,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"market_team": "Marbella",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Puente Genil",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puente Genil at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puente Genil as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puente Genil",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.85,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"steam_team": "Marbella",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puente Genil at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puente Genil as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puente Genil",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Puente Genil 1.30 xG vs Marbella 1.30 \u2192 Puente Genil 35.2%",
"Market: Marbella ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Marbella odds \u2191 +18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puente Genil with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.48,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Puente Genil",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.36,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Marbella",
"market_prob": 33.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.17,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.17,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Marbella"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Puente Genil",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Puente Genil \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Puente Genil 1.30 xG vs Marbella 1.30 \u2192 Puente Genil 35.2%",
"Market: Marbella ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Marbella odds \u2191 +18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puente Genil with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.85,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Marbella odds lengthened \u2191 +18.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Marbella has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Marbella \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Marbella has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Marbella \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Marbella has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.48,
"edge_pp": 1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Puente Genil",
"market_prob_pct": 33.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.85,
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.36,
"edge_pp": 1.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Marbella",
"market_prob_pct": 33.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Marbella \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Marbella (33.7%).",
"However, Marbella has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.2%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Puente Genil, Market \u2192 Marbella, while Marbella odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.46,
"closing_odds": 2.82,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.46,
"entry_odds": 2.82,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Marbella (18.2%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.71",
"2.46",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.77 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Marbella",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.71,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.71"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Marbella",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Marbella",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Marbella",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Marbella",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Marbella",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "marbella",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Marbella",
"away_team_id": 5267,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5267.webp",
"away_team_name": "Marbella",
"away_team_public_id": "0Lp9cnFb4G89k7",
"away_team_slug": "marbella",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572977,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Puente Genil",
"home_team_id": 9764,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9764.webp",
"home_team_name": "Puente Genil",
"home_team_public_id": "3btXKfCectZDKr",
"home_team_slug": "puente-genil",
"ht.home_team_slug": "puente-genil",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_id": 878,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/878.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_public_id": "3uGTsqWqb9LWmy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4mrowS72KmSRdD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4408,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.3381,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3381,
"draw": 0.325,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3442
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4308,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3381,
"draw": 0.325,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3127
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3381,
"draw": 0.325,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3434
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.0467,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0582,
"ev": -0.164,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2152,
"alpha_yes": 0.2367,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.81,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0317,
"edge_yes": 0.0317,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1088,
"ev_yes": -0.0135,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0851,
"implied_no": 0.4867,
"implied_yes": 0.5133,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.4841,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4778
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.5159,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5228
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4778,
"p_final_yes": 0.5228,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2133,
"alpha_under": 0.2347,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0335,
"edge_under": -0.0335,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"implied_over": 0.4485,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4474,
"implied_under": 0.5515,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4548,
"p_final_under": 0.5445,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puente Genil at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puente Genil as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puente Genil",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0218,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4485,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Puente Genil"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.5159,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.4841,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4778
},
"p_final": 0.5228,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0851,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.5159,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5228
}
},
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": -0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.5133,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4485,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572977,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0218,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Marbella",
"home": "Puente Genil"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572977,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:00:43.764038+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Puente Genil & Marbella!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Segunda División RFEF - Nhóm 4 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis B | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Badajoz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Marbella | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Estepona | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Puente Genil | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Atlético Central | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Las Palmas II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Antoniano | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis B | 4 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Marbella | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Puente Genil | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Badajoz | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Atlético Central | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Estepona | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Antoniano | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
