AI correctly predicted the Xerez win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Xerez Xerez ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Xerez win 2–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Xerez 1.38 — Tenerife II 1.22
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Xerez win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Xerez win · Xerez 2–1 Tenerife II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "08c163fc0d58fff056b9b7a5a52f5235bab9c37a3c1b649c1d3532184ad597ee",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.3897,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Tenerife II",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Tenerife II"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Xerez",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0544,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.444,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.06
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.06,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Xerez Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.25,
"market_odds": 2.06,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -9.6,
"value_pct": -19.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Xerez or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Xerez or Tenerife II",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tenerife II",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Xerez or Tenerife II",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Xerez"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 13.4,
"implied_prob": 27.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Tenerife II Win",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 3.6
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tenerife II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.41,
"draw": 30.19,
"home": 44.4
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 10:00:56",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 09:31:20",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Xerez",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.4,
"gap_pp": -5.44,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.19,
"gap_pp": -0.65,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.41,
"gap_pp": 6.08,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.08,
"gap_pp": 6.12,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.92,
"gap_pp": -6.12,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.06,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.03,
"early": 3.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.19,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.41,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.0563,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.55,
"market_prob": 0.1325,
"market_prob_pct": 13.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4313,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"p_final": 0.4418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.017,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5571
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0749,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.5,
"text": "+7.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0749,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10217.41,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0126,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4821,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.5179,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.504
},
"p_final": 0.4947,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0227,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0699,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4821,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4947
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1929,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.3,
"text": "-19.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.5,
"text": "+4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0445,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10040.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1316,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.2,
"text": "-13.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0256,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Xerez",
"sort_key": 1793.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Tenerife II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.07,
"hero_label": "Tenerife II",
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"market_team": "Xerez",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Xerez",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1337,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Xerez at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Xerez as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Xerez",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Xerez \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572992 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1316,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.07,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Tenerife II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1337,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Xerez at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Xerez as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Xerez",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Xerez \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572992 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1316,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Xerez 1.38 xG vs Tenerife II 1.22 \u2192 Xerez 39.0%",
"Market: Xerez ~44.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Tenerife II odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Xerez with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.43,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Xerez",
"market_prob": 44.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.65,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.07,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Tenerife II",
"market_prob": 25.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.02,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.02,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.32,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.32,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Tenerife II",
"market_prob_pct": 25.41,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Tenerife II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Tenerife II\u0027s win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.4%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Xerez",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Xerez \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Xerez 1.38 xG vs Tenerife II 1.22 \u2192 Xerez 39.0%",
"Market: Xerez ~44.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Tenerife II odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Xerez with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.07,
"hero_label": "Tenerife II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Tenerife II odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tenerife II.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tenerife II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tenerife II.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tenerife II."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Tenerife II.",
"Recent line movement on Tenerife II (\u2191 +10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Tenerife II",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.1,
"lead": "The model rates Tenerife II considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.43,
"edge_pp": -5.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Xerez",
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.65,
"edge_pp": -0.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.07,
"edge_pp": 6.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Tenerife II",
"market_prob_pct": 25.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tenerife II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Xerez (44.4%).",
"Tenerife II odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Xerez \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.78,
"closing_odds": 3.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.78,
"entry_odds": 3.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Tenerife II (10.0%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.30",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.81 \u2192 2.86 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Tenerife II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.81"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.6,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Tenerife II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Tenerife II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Tenerife II",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Tenerife II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tenerife-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tenerife II",
"away_team_id": 9802,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9802.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tenerife II",
"away_team_public_id": "1HemhT6whDbDgB",
"away_team_slug": "tenerife-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572992,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Xerez",
"home_team_id": 9770,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9770.webp",
"home_team_name": "Xerez",
"home_team_public_id": "1W5LaTdwtlsop3",
"home_team_slug": "xerez",
"ht.home_team_slug": "xerez",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_id": 878,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/878.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_public_id": "3uGTsqWqb9LWmy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 10:00:00",
"public_id": "2delxf3pQfvJY5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jerez",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2726,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.2541,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2541,
"draw": 0.3019,
"home": 0.444
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2707
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.3019,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2541,
"draw": 0.3019,
"home": 0.444
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4133,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1316,
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2541,
"draw": 0.3019,
"home": 0.444
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4216
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": 0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.03,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.33,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.0958,
"ev": -0.1973,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2245,
"alpha_yes": 0.2041,
"best_no_odd": 1.77,
"best_yes_odd": 1.92,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0632,
"edge_yes": 0.0632,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1929,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.118,
"ev_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0699,
"implied_no": 0.5192,
"implied_yes": 0.4808,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.5179,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.504
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4821,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4947
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.504,
"p_final_yes": 0.4947,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2079,
"alpha_under": 0.2287,
"best_over_odd": 2.23,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.6,
"edge_over": 0.0502,
"edge_under": -0.0502,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0749,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1086,
"implied_over": 0.4318,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4313,
"implied_under": 0.5682,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5687,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5571
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4418,
"p_final_under": 0.5571,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1337,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0749,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1337,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Xerez at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Xerez as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Xerez",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Xerez \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572992 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xerez).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1316,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1316,
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Xerez"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0126,
"market_prob": 0.4821,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.5179,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.504
},
"p_final": 0.4947,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0699,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4821,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4947
}
},
"edge": 0.0632,
"ev": 0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4313,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4418
},
"p_final": 0.4418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5571
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0502,
"ev": 0.0749,
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572992,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0749,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tenerife II",
"home": "Xerez"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.025271,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0749,
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1316,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1972,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572992,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T10:00:58.747112+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Xerez & Tenerife II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Segunda División RFEF - Nhóm 4 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis B | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Don Benito | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ciudad de Lucena | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sevilla Atlético | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Badajoz | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Estepona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sanluqueño | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Xerez | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Central | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Puente Genil | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Las Palmas II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Tamaraceite | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Real Betis B | 6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Sevilla Atlético | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Don Benito | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Lucena | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Estepona | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Sanluqueño | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Badajoz | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Linares Deportivo | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Atlético Central | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Marbella | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Puente Genil | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Xerez | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Antoniano | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Las Palmas II | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 4 |
