Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc EC São Bernardo U20, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (46.1% so với mô hình 36.6%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
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Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Thị trường và mô hình nhìn chung đều đồng ý với EC São Bernardo U20. Sự khác biệt còn lại có thể phản ánh sự khác biệt trong các giả định về sức mạnh của nhóm hơn là sự bất đồng về phương hướng.
Tuy nhiên, XV de Piracicaba U20 đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào XV de Piracicaba U20.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| XV de Piracicaba U20 | 33.77% | 27.69% | +6.1 pp |
| Hòa | 29.64% | 26.24% | +3.4 pp |
| EC São Bernardo U20 | 36.59% | 46.07% | -9.5 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"edge_over": -0.044,
"edge_under": 0.044,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"implied_over": 0.526,
"implied_under": 0.474,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.474,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0488,
"ev": -0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4468,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.044,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547257,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20",
"home": "XV de Piracicaba U20"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547257,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:03:08.061378+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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