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Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Mirassol U20, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Về mặt thực tế, thị trường lạc quan hơn về Juventus U20 so với ước tính hợp lý hiện tại.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Juventus U20.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus U20 | 32.39% | 45.09% | -12.7 pp |
| Hòa | 29.59% | 27.5% | +2.1 pp |
| Mirassol U20 | 38.01% | 27.41% | +10.6 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Juventus U20 market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Juventus U20
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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{
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"status_label": "Use caution",
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{
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
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"outcome": "away"
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{
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"outcome": "over"
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{
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"outcome": "under"
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{
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"outcome": "yes"
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{
"edge_pp": -9.19,
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"status": "market_ahead",
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
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"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
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"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
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"summary": "The model and market both lean Mirassol U20, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Juventus U20 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.11,
"hero_label": "Juventus U20",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
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"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Juventus U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Juventus U20.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Juventus U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Juventus U20."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Juventus U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Juventus U20 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (2/2) supports the current market view on Juventus U20."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 13.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
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},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
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"side": "home"
},
{
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
},
{
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mirassol U20",
"market_prob_pct": 28.19,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
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"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Juventus U20.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Juventus U20 (28.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mirassol U20, Market \u2192 Juventus U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
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"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
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"entry_odds": 2.0,
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"id": "forecast_generated",
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"status": "done"
},
{
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"id": "market_detected",
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},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/2",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Juventus U20",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Juventus U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
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"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 13027,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13027.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mirassol U20",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1547248,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 13021,
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"home_team_name": "Juventus U20",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 1086,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
"league_name": "Paulista - U20",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
"alpha": 0.2557,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.2819,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3071
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2852,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.2631,
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2725
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4819,
"best_odd": 1.995,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0633,
"ev": -0.2185,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3917
}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 2.06,
"edge_no": -0.0919,
"edge_yes": 0.0919,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2248,
"ev_yes": 0.1206,
"implied_no": 0.5479,
"implied_yes": 0.4521,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.0805,
"edge_under": -0.0805,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"implied_over": 0.4015,
"implied_under": 0.5985,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.2819,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Mirassol U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0919,
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0805,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1547248,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mirassol U20",
"home": "Juventus U20"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.049861,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547248,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:00:44.589119+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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