The model missed the final outcome (Bỉ win 0–2).
The model had projected Ý at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ý Bỉ ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ý | 41.4% | 44.0% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.4% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Bỉ | 33.9% | 29.6% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Bỉ win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Bỉ win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ý 41.5% · Draw 24.7% · Bỉ 33.9%
- xG · Ý 1.94 — Bỉ 1.85
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ý 2.20 · Draw 3.67 · Bỉ 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · Ý 44.0% · Draw 26.4% · Bỉ 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ý 2.20 · Draw 3.67 · Bỉ 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · Ý 44.0% · Draw 26.4% · Bỉ 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bỉ win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
78/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.27
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bỉ win · Ý 0–2 Bỉ
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d2cc78876adb20af1878ba9eaa854af7af83b632da5af706a47102c428760710",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3389,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2467,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4143,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.85,
"away_win_prob": 0.3389,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3389,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.268,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2467,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2467,
"fair_odds_away": 2.95,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.95,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.05,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.05,
"fair_odds_home": 2.41,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.41,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.94,
"home_win_prob": 0.4143,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4143,
"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : \u00dd or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "\u00dd"
},
"away_xg": 1.85,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "\u00dd",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0255,
"edge_gap": 0.0759,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4401,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.9,
"draw": 24.7,
"home": 41.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.2
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "\u00dd Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.27,
"market_odds": 2.2,
"model_odds": 2.41,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": -4.0,
"value_pct": -8.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 84.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 85.6,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.85,
"home_expected": 1.94,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u00dd or Draw",
"prob": 66.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u00dd or B\u1ec9",
"prob": 75.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or B\u1ec9",
"prob": 58.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u00dd or B\u1ec9",
"pick_prob": 75.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.9,
"draw_pct": 24.7,
"home_pct": 41.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "\u00dd"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 10.9,
"implied_prob": 30.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "B\u1ec9 Win",
"model_prob": 33.9,
"odds": 3.27
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "B\u1ec9",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.61,
"draw": 26.38,
"home": 44.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 18:44:58",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 18:14:47",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u00dd",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.01,
"gap_pp": -2.55,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.38,
"gap_pp": -1.71,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.61,
"gap_pp": 4.26,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.05,
"gap_pp": 13.95,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.95,
"gap_pp": -13.85,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 27.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.67,
"early": 3.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.38,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.27,
"early": 3.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.61,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.05,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.95,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -5.8,
"ev": -0.4168,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.2,
"market_prob": 0.1389,
"market_prob_pct": 13.9,
"model_prob": 0.081,
"model_prob_pct": 8.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.94,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.5784,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6088
},
"p_final": 0.6088,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1972,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0015,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2921,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3604,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -36.0,
"text": "-36.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2921,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10412.89,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.6154,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"p_final": 0.6392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.098,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0412,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6392
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2952,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.5,
"text": "-29.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2224,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.2,
"text": "+22.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2224,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"sort_key": 10200.16,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0561,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0073,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "\u00dd",
"sort_key": 5205.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "B\u1ec9",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.28,
"hero_label": "B\u1ec9",
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"market_team": "\u00dd",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "\u00dd",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00dd at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00dd as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00dd",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 90,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.28,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.85,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.94,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.94,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.94 \u00b7 Away xG 1.85 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"steam_team": "B\u1ec9",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00dd at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00dd as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00dd",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00dd 1.94 xG vs B\u1ec9 1.85 \u2192 \u00dd 41.4%",
"Market: \u00dd ~44.0% implied",
"Market Drift: B\u1ec9 odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean \u00dd with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.58,
"fair_prob": 41.43,
"label": "\u00dd",
"market_prob": 44.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.71,
"fair_prob": 24.67,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob": 33.89,
"label": "B\u1ec9",
"market_prob": 29.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.35,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.25,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.15,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.15,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.89,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "B\u1ec9",
"market_prob_pct": 29.61,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "B\u1ec9"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u00dd",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.6,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 90,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "\u00dd \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00dd 1.94 xG vs B\u1ec9 1.85 \u2192 \u00dd 41.4%",
"Market: \u00dd ~44.0% implied",
"Market Drift: B\u1ec9 odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean \u00dd with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.28,
"hero_label": "B\u1ec9",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "B\u1ec9 odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B\u1ec9.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B\u1ec9."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on B\u1ec9 (\u2191 +6.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on B\u1ec9."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "B\u1ec9",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.58,
"edge_pp": -2.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.43,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "\u00dd",
"market_prob_pct": 44.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.71,
"edge_pp": -1.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.28,
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.89,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "B\u1ec9",
"market_prob_pct": 29.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B\u1ec9.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u00dd (44.0%).",
"However, B\u1ec9 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.9%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"\u00dd \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.58,
"closing_odds": 3.27,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.58,
"entry_odds": 3.27,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on B\u1ec9 (6.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.27",
"3.08",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.15 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"pick_team": "B\u1ec9",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.27,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.27"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on B\u1ec9",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "B\u1ec9",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "B\u1ec9",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "B\u1ec9",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "B\u1ec9",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "belgium",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "B\u1ec9",
"away_team_id": 1,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1.webp",
"away_team_name": "B\u1ec9",
"away_team_public_id": "3Nzan53zMxCASk",
"away_team_slug": "belgium",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528883,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "\u00dd",
"home_team_display_name": "\u00dd",
"home_team_id": 768,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/768.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u00dd",
"home_team_public_id": "4xRN4xP5ED9pkY",
"home_team_slug": "italy",
"ht.home_team_slug": "italy",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0EN4fPP0gE0r2M",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Rome",
"venue_name": "Stadio Olimpico"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2808,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": 0.0073,
"implied_prob": 0.2961,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2961,
"draw": 0.2638,
"home": 0.4401
},
"model_prob": 0.3387,
"p_final": 0.3081
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2923,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.2638,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2961,
"draw": 0.2638,
"home": 0.4401
},
"model_prob": 0.2467,
"p_final": 0.2588
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2961,
"draw": 0.2638,
"home": 0.4401
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"p_final": 0.4291
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.3387
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.0946,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2467
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.04,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.4146
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1485,
"alpha_yes": 0.2042,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1215,
"edge_yes": 0.1215,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2952,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1185,
"ev_yes": 0.2224,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0412,
"implied_no": 0.3895,
"implied_yes": 0.6105,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6392
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3673,
"p_final_yes": 0.6392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2008,
"alpha_under": 0.1463,
"best_over_odd": 1.77,
"best_under_odd": 2.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": 0.1535,
"edge_under": -0.1525,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2921,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0015,
"ev_under": -0.3604,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.101,
"implied_over": 0.5765,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5784,
"implied_under": 0.4235,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6088
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3996
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6088,
"p_final_under": 0.3996,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2921,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00dd at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00dd as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00dd",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00dd).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2467,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4146,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.09
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u00dd"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"market_prob": 0.6154,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"p_final": 0.6392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0412,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6392
}
},
"edge": 0.1215,
"ev": 0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.6105,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"market_prob": 0.5784,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6088
},
"p_final": 0.6088,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0015,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1535,
"ev": 0.2921,
"implied_prob": 0.5765,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528883,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2921,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3387,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.4146
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.6105,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.6105,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "B\u1ec9",
"home": "\u00dd"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.266541,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2921,
"implied_prob": 0.5765,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0561,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528883,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T19:16:23.106912+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ý & Bỉ!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Thế giới. UEFA Nations League Dự đoán
