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Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Paysandu, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (50.7% so với mô hình 36.1%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Về mặt thực tế, thị trường lạc quan hơn về Paysandu so với ước tính hợp lý hiện tại.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Paysandu.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paysandu | 36.11% | 50.66% | -14.6 pp |
| Hòa | 29.65% | 28.28% | +1.4 pp |
| Inter De Limeira | 34.24% | 21.06% | +13.2 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Paysandu market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Paysandu
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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{
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"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
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"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
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"fair_confidence": "medium",
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"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Paysandu",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
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"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
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"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Paysandu, but the market prices them higher (50.7% vs model 36.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.55,
"hero_label": "Paysandu",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
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"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Paysandu than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Paysandu.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Paysandu than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Paysandu."
],
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"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
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"The market favors Paysandu more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Paysandu (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/11) supports the current market view on Paysandu."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 14.55,
"model_validation": {
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"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
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"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
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},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
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{
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"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
},
{
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"label": "Inter De Limeira",
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}
],
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"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
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"paragraphs": [
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"Both lean Paysandu, but the market prices them higher (50.7% vs model 36.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
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"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
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"entry_odds": 1.8,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
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"id": "forecast_generated",
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{
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"id": "closing_recorded",
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{
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"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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"market_overview": {
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"current_odds": 1.75,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.75,
"pick_team": "Paysandu",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Paysandu",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1201,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1201.webp",
"away_team_name": "Inter De Limeira",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1526852,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 149,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/149.webp",
"home_team_name": "Paysandu",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 75,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/75.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Belem",
"venue_name": "Leonidas Sodre de Castro"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.2106,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2318
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2937,
"best_odd": 3.225,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.0749,
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"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2869
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4689,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0683,
"ev": -0.211,
"implied_prob": 0.5066,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4383
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.02,
"edge_no": -0.0808,
"edge_yes": 0.0808,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_yes": 0.1009,
"implied_no": 0.5358,
"implied_yes": 0.4642,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0575,
"edge_under": -0.0575,
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_under": -0.1453,
"implied_over": 0.4245,
"implied_under": 0.5755,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0683,
"ev": -0.211,
"implied_prob": 0.5066,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Paysandu"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0808,
"ev": 0.1009,
"implied_prob": 0.4642,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0575,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4245,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1526852,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4245,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4245,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Inter De Limeira",
"home": "Paysandu"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.054991,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1009,
"implied_prob": 0.4642,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1526852,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:40:14.838807+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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