Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Suduva Marijampole, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (40.0% so với mô hình 35.6%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
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Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Ước tính hợp lý cho thấy lợi thế khiêm tốn so với giá thị trường hiện tại của Banga.
Tuy nhiên, Suduva Marijampole đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Suduva Marijampole.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 35.64% | 39.96% | -4.3 pp |
| Hòa | 29.65% | 30.49% | -0.8 pp |
| Banga | 34.7% | 29.55% | +5.2 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Suduva Marijampole market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Suduva Marijampole
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"model_team": "Suduva Marijampole",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
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"outcome": "away"
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{
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{
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"market_prob": 51.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
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"edge_pp": 5.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Banga",
"market_prob_pct": 29.55,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Suduva Marijampole"
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Suduva Marijampole",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
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"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Suduva Marijampole, but the market prices them higher (40.0% vs model 35.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.15,
"hero_label": "Banga",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Suduva Marijampole has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Banga.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Suduva Marijampole.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Banga.",
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"Market activity is currently concentrated on Suduva Marijampole."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
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"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/10) supports the current market view on Suduva Marijampole."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 5.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
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"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
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{
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{
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"label": "Banga",
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"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Suduva Marijampole.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
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"Both lean Suduva Marijampole, but the market prices them higher (40.0% vs model 35.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
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"entry_implied_pct": 32.36,
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"stages": [
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
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{
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"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Suduva Marijampole",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Suduva Marijampole",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3858,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3858.webp",
"away_team_name": "Banga",
"country_code": "LT",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lt.svg",
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"fixture_id": 1522824,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Lithuania",
"home_team_id": 612,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/612.webp",
"home_team_name": "Suduva Marijampole",
"league_country": "Lithuania",
"league_id": 362,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/362.webp",
"league_name": "A Lyga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 11:15:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Marijampole",
"venue_name": "Marijampole Football Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2767,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.2955,
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3098
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4445,
"best_odd": 2.995,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0036,
"ev": -0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3013
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4205,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.1289,
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"p_final": 0.3812
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.89,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"edge_no": -0.0626,
"edge_yes": 0.0626,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1401,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"implied_no": 0.5176,
"implied_yes": 0.4824,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0658,
"edge_under": -0.0658,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"implied_over": 0.4162,
"implied_under": 0.5838,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.3996,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Suduva Marijampole"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0626,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4824,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0658,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1522824,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Banga",
"home": "Suduva Marijampole"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4824,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1522824,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:47:43.654804+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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