Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Sydney United, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (49.6% so với mô hình 39.7%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Thị trường và mô hình nhìn chung đều đồng ý với Sydney United. Sự khác biệt còn lại có thể phản ánh sự khác biệt trong các giả định về sức mạnh của nhóm hơn là sự bất đồng về phương hướng.
Tuy nhiên, Manly United đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Manly United.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manly United | 31.42% | 24.32% | +7.1 pp |
| Hòa | 28.87% | 26.03% | +2.8 pp |
| Sydney United | 39.71% | 49.64% | -9.9 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Không đặt cược mặc định ở ngưỡng tiêu chuẩn - chỉ sử dụng tỷ lệ nghiêng cho ngữ cảnh.
Manly United market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Manly United
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"raw_pct": -9.8,
"text": "-9.8%"
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"ev_yes": 0.0285,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
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{
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{
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"outcome": "away"
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{
"edge_pp": 1.18,
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{
"edge_pp": 3.9,
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{
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"market_prob": 47.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
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],
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"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.71,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Sydney United",
"market_prob_pct": 49.64,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Manly United"
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"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
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"comparison_disabled": false,
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"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sydney United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
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"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Sydney United, but the market prices them higher (49.6% vs model 39.7%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.93,
"hero_label": "Sydney United",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Manly United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sydney United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Manly United.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sydney United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
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"Market activity is currently concentrated on Manly United."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
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"The market still prices Sydney United above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Manly United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/13) supports the current market view on Manly United."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 9.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
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"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.3 pp (at 39.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.3,
"max_prob_pct": 39.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
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"is_hero": false,
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"side": "home"
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{
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
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{
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"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sydney United",
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],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Manly United.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sydney United (49.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sydney United, Market \u2192 Sydney United, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
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"entry_implied_pct": 54.79,
"entry_odds": 1.82,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Manly United",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Manly United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3776,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3776.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sydney United",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1517568,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_id": 3767,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3767.webp",
"home_team_name": "Manly United",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_id": 192,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/192.webp",
"league_name": "New South Wales NPL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 09:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sydney",
"venue_name": "Cromer Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5102,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0509,
"ev": -0.1869,
"implied_prob": 0.4964,
"model_prob": 0.3967,
"p_final": 0.4455
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2871,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.2603,
"model_prob": 0.2889,
"p_final": 0.2686
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.268,
"best_odd": 3.725,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.023,
"implied_prob": 0.2432,
"model_prob": 0.3144,
"p_final": 0.2623
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.06,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"edge_no": -0.039,
"edge_yes": 0.039,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0977,
"ev_yes": 0.0285,
"implied_no": 0.477,
"implied_yes": 0.523,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.98,
"best_under_odd": 1.86,
"edge_over": 0.0118,
"edge_under": -0.0118,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0019,
"ev_under": -0.0812,
"implied_over": 0.4942,
"implied_under": 0.5058,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0285,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"draw_prob": 0.2889,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3967,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0285,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.523,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.562,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0509,
"ev": -0.1869,
"implied_prob": 0.4964,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3967,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sydney United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.039,
"ev": 0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.523,
"model_prob": 0.562,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": 0.0019,
"implied_prob": 0.4942,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1517568,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0285,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3967,
"draw": 0.2889,
"home": 0.3144
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sydney United",
"home": "Manly United"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1517568,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:29:02.431528+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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