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Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Kalju Nomme, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (49.2% so với mô hình 35.6%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Về mặt thực tế, thị trường lạc quan hơn về Kalju Nomme so với ước tính hợp lý hiện tại.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Kalju Nomme.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju Nomme | 35.64% | 49.24% | -13.6 pp |
| Hòa | 29.65% | 25.59% | +4.1 pp |
| Paide | 34.7% | 25.17% | +9.5 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Kalju Nomme market context before kickoff
— Theo dõi on Kalju Nomme
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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{
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{
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"status_label": "Use caution",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
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"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
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"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
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"fair_confidence": "medium",
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"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
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"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
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"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Kalju Nomme, but the market prices them higher (49.2% vs model 35.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.6,
"hero_label": "Kalju Nomme",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Kalju Nomme than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Kalju Nomme.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Kalju Nomme than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Kalju Nomme."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Kalju Nomme more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Kalju Nomme (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/10) supports the current market view on Kalju Nomme."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 13.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
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"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
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},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
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"side": "home"
},
{
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.59,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.53,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Paide",
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"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Kalju Nomme.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kalju Nomme (49.2%).",
"Both lean Kalju Nomme, but the market prices them higher (49.2% vs model 35.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
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"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
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"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "Kalju Nomme",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Kalju Nomme",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
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],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3528,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3528.webp",
"away_team_name": "Paide",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1513567,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_id": 662,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/662.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kalju Nomme",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_id": 329,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/329.webp",
"league_name": "Meistriliiga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 11:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tallinn",
"venue_name": "Hiiu Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.257,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": -0.0,
"implied_prob": 0.2517,
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.2762
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2816,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.2559,
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2674
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4771,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0651,
"ev": -0.2095,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4273
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.18,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"edge_no": 0.0064,
"edge_yes": -0.0064,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0081,
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"implied_no": 0.4486,
"implied_yes": 0.5514,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.07,
"edge_over": -0.0463,
"edge_under": 0.0463,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_under": 0.0723,
"implied_over": 0.5283,
"implied_under": 0.4717,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0723,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0651,
"ev": -0.2095,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kalju Nomme"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.4486,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0463,
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513567,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0723,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paide",
"home": "Kalju Nomme"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.026216,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513567,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:33:05.971270+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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