Jonsered vs Qviding FIF Dự đoán, tỷ lệ cược & mẹo cá cược AI

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "0530639d48fac72c721082ee37fcefb4acf390a71231cb2e72feafa0a751e340",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3659,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2964,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.73,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.96,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3377,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Qviding FIF and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Qviding FIF"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.33,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Qviding FIF",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.073,
        "edge_gap": 0.0284,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.293,
        "model_prob": 0.366,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 36.6,
          "draw": 29.6,
          "home": 33.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": null,
          "bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
          "odd": 3.15
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 3.1
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
          "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
          "odd": 3.04
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 3.15,
        "bookmaker_id": 16,
        "bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
        "display_market": "Qviding FIF Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.41,
        "market_odds": 3.1,
        "model_odds": 2.73,
        "overround": 10.2,
        "prob_edge": 4.9,
        "value_pct": 15.4,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 73.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 71.9,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.33,
        "home_expected": 1.27,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.9
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Jonsered or Draw",
            "prob": 63.4
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Jonsered or Qviding FIF",
            "prob": 70.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Qviding FIF",
            "prob": 66.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Jonsered or Qviding FIF",
        "pick_prob": 70.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 36.6,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 33.8,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Qviding FIF"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 9,
        "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
        "edge": 21.4,
        "implied_prob": 24.4,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 29.6,
        "odds": 4.1
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "has_data": false
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.27,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.383,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -38.3,
          "text": "-38.3%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.6317,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 63.2,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.6317,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10718.53,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_no": null,
        "ev_no_display": null,
        "ev_yes": null,
        "ev_yes_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": null,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.023,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.3,
          "text": "-2.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.2965,
        "max_ev": -0.023,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.3,
          "text": "-2.3%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.366,
        "side_label": "Qviding FIF",
        "sort_key": 1794.25,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 13.6,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -13.61,
        "hero_label": "Jonsered",
        "market_prob_pct": 29.6,
        "market_team": "Jonsered",
        "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
        "model_team": "Qviding FIF",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.61,
          "fair_prob": 33.77,
          "label": "Jonsered",
          "market_prob": 47.38,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.66,
          "fair_prob": 29.64,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 22.98,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.94,
          "fair_prob": 36.59,
          "label": "Qviding FIF",
          "market_prob": 29.65,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -22.91,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 71.11,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 22.91,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 28.89,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -13.61,
        "fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Jonsered",
        "market_prob_pct": 47.38,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Jonsered"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 13.61,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Qviding FIF",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 29.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Qviding FIF, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Jonsered remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -13.61,
        "hero_label": "Jonsered",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Jonsered is the dominant side.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Jonsered than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Jonsered than the current fair estimate.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Jonsered than the current fair estimate.",
            "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Jonsered is the dominant side."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Jonsered more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
            "The market materially disagrees with the model on Jonsered (pricing gap 13.6 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 13.61,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -13.61,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Jonsered",
            "market_prob_pct": 47.38,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.66,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 22.98,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.94,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Qviding FIF",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Jonsered than the current fair estimate.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Jonsered (29.6%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Qviding FIF, Market \u2192 Jonsered, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
        "entry_implied_pct": 51.55,
        "entry_odds": 1.94,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/3",
        "current_odds": 1.94,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.94,
        "pick_team": "Jonsered",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_team_name": "Jonsered",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 13.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 6693,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6693.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Qviding FIF",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1511330,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 21359,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21359.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Jonsered",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 596,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/596.webp",
      "league_name": "Division 2 - V\u00e4stra G\u00f6taland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2687,
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0187,
            "ev": -0.023,
            "implied_prob": 0.2965,
            "model_prob": 0.366,
            "p_final": 0.3152
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.18,
            "best_odd": 4.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.012,
            "ev": -0.0329,
            "implied_prob": 0.2298,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2418
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4774,
            "best_odd": 1.94,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.065,
            "ev": -0.2071,
            "implied_prob": 0.4738,
            "model_prob": 0.3375,
            "p_final": 0.4087
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.28,
          "best_under_odd": 3.15,
          "edge_over": -0.2291,
          "edge_under": 0.2291,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.383,
          "ev_under": 0.6317,
          "implied_over": 0.7111,
          "implied_under": 0.2889,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.6317,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0187,
          "ev": -0.023,
          "implied_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.366,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Qviding FIF"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2291,
          "ev": 0.6317,
          "implied_prob": 0.2889,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1511330,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.6317,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.366,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3375
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Qviding FIF",
        "home": "Jonsered"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.174081,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.6317,
        "implied_prob": 0.2889,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1511330,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:16:40.503597+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}