The model missed the final outcome (Central Ballester win 2–0).
The model had projected Puerto Nuevo at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Puerto Nuevo Central Ballester ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Ballester | 34.7% | 34.5% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 36.0% | -6.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Puerto Nuevo | 35.6% | 29.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 36.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Central Ballester win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Puerto Nuevo by 6.3 percentage points (42.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Central Ballester 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Puerto Nuevo 35.6%
- xG · Central Ballester 1.29 — Puerto Nuevo 1.31
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Central Ballester 2.58 · Draw 2.47 · Puerto Nuevo 3.01
- Implied 1X2 · Central Ballester 34.5% · Draw 36.0% · Puerto Nuevo 29.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Central Ballester 2.58 · Draw 2.47 · Puerto Nuevo 3.01
- Implied 1X2 · Central Ballester 34.5% · Draw 36.0% · Puerto Nuevo 29.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Central Ballester win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.47
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Central Ballester win · Central Ballester 2–0 Puerto Nuevo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4fd75f8757ca8209c46eee94708e858c51364e24fac1734355ea7ed48952ccb4",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Puerto Nuevo and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Puerto Nuevo"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0605,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2954,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.01
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Puerto Nuevo Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.39,
"market_odds": 3.01,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": 2.4,
"value_pct": 7.1,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 12,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 14,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Central Ballester or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Central Ballester or Puerto Nuevo",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Puerto Nuevo",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Central Ballester or Puerto Nuevo",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Puerto Nuevo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.2,
"implied_prob": 33.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Puerto Nuevo Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 3.01
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.54,
"draw": 36.0,
"home": 34.46
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:04:34",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 17:35:18",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Central Ballester",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.46,
"gap_pp": 0.27,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.0,
"gap_pp": -6.32,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.54,
"gap_pp": 6.05,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.47,
"gap_pp": 17.73,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 69.53,
"gap_pp": -17.73,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.47,
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"implied_closing_pct": 36.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.01,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.99,
"early": 2.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.31,
"early": 1.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 69.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.1,
"ev": -0.244,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1812,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0235,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.4151,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1993,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.5849,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.559
},
"p_final": 0.4386,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1826,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1812,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4386
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.7,
"text": "-22.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2971,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10417.39,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.635,
"edge": 0.02,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3412,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.635,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.3412,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3612
},
"p_final": 0.3612,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2701,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0481,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1952,
"best_odd": 1.365,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.6587,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6313
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4412,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 44.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4412,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10397.08,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0612,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0612,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0713,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"sort_key": 1784.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.35,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.5,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puerto Nuevo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puerto Nuevo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puerto Nuevo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0713,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/11",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.35,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.35,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Central Ballester",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puerto Nuevo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puerto Nuevo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puerto Nuevo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0713,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Central Ballester 1.29 xG vs Puerto Nuevo 1.31 \u2192 Puerto Nuevo 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~29.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Central Ballester +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puerto Nuevo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Central Ballester",
"market_prob": 34.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.35,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 36.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.1,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"market_prob": 29.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.65,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.65,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.0,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Central Ballester"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 36.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.35,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Central Ballester 1.29 xG vs Puerto Nuevo 1.31 \u2192 Puerto Nuevo 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~29.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Central Ballester +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puerto Nuevo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.35,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Central Ballester has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Central Ballester.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Central Ballester has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Central Ballester."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Central Ballester has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/11) supports the current market view on Central Ballester."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.35,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.24,
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Central Ballester",
"market_prob_pct": 34.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.35,
"edge_pp": -6.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.1,
"edge_pp": 6.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"market_prob_pct": 29.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Central Ballester.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (29.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Puerto Nuevo, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.49,
"closing_odds": 2.47,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.49,
"entry_odds": 2.47,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/11",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Central Ballester",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Central Ballester",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "puerto-nuevo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Puerto Nuevo",
"away_team_id": 8397,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8397.webp",
"away_team_name": "Puerto Nuevo",
"away_team_public_id": "1E5b7xO4dzcoR0",
"away_team_slug": "puerto-nuevo",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1500099,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Central Ballester",
"home_team_id": 1967,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1967.webp",
"home_team_name": "Central Ballester",
"home_team_public_id": "3vwYy1Tq4c9hP8",
"home_team_slug": "central-ballester",
"ht.home_team_slug": "central-ballester",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:00:00",
"public_id": "47UZdfRB9R5Ou1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2728,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2954,
"draw": 0.36,
"home": 0.3446
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3119
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4073,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1744,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2954,
"draw": 0.36,
"home": 0.3446
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3342
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4482,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.3446,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2954,
"draw": 0.36,
"home": 0.3446
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3458
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": 0.0714,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.1081,
"ev": -0.2669,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": -0.0403,
"ev": -0.104,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1993,
"alpha_yes": 0.1812,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1265,
"edge_yes": 0.1265,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1391,
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0482,
"implied_no": 0.5815,
"implied_yes": 0.4185,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1993,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.5849,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.559
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1812,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4386
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.559,
"p_final_yes": 0.4386,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.142,
"alpha_under": 0.1952,
"best_over_odd": 2.99,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.635,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.365,
"edge_over": 0.1364,
"edge_under": -0.1364,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4412,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0481,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1383,
"implied_over": 0.3456,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3412,
"implied_under": 0.6544,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6587,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.635,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.3412,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3612
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1952,
"best_odd": 1.365,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.6587,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6313
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3612,
"p_final_under": 0.6313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4412,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4412,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puerto Nuevo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puerto Nuevo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puerto Nuevo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Central Ballester, but the model still strongly favours Puerto Nuevo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0713,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Puerto Nuevo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1812,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0235,
"market_prob": 0.4151,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1993,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.5849,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.559
},
"p_final": 0.4386,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1812,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4386
}
},
"edge": 0.1265,
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4185,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.635,
"edge": 0.02,
"market_prob": 0.3412,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.635,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.3412,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3612
},
"p_final": 0.3612,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0481,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1952,
"best_odd": 1.365,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.6587,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6313
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1364,
"ev": 0.4412,
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500099,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4412,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4412,
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4412,
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Puerto Nuevo",
"home": "Central Ballester"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161919,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4185,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2954,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0713,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500099,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:04:36.622639+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Central Ballester & Puerto Nuevo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacachispas | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 2 | Berazategui | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 3 | Lugano | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | Centro Español | 28 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 41 |
| 5 | Estrella Del Sur | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | Juventud Unida | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Puerto Nuevo | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 38 |
| 8 | Mercedes | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 9 | Victoriano Arenas | 28 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 37 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 11 | JJ Urquiza | 28 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 28 |
| 12 | Leandro N. Alem | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 27 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 28 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 23 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Centro Español | 28 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 41 |
| 2 | Sacachispas | 27 | 32 | 20 | +12 | 46 |
| 3 | Juventud Unida | 28 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 38 |
| 4 | Berazategui | 28 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 44 |
| 5 | Lugano | 28 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 44 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 28 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 40 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 28 | 27 | 23 | +4 | 37 |
| 8 | Leandro N. Alem | 28 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 28 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 28 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 28 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Argentino Rosario | 28 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 23 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 28 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 37 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 28 | 18 | 35 | -17 | 27 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 28 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 28 |
