The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected JJ Urquiza at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 JJ Urquiza Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores de Cambaceres | 34.2% | 36.8% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.1% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
| JJ Urquiza | 36.1% | 32.0% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Defensores de Cambaceres 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · JJ Urquiza 36.1%
- xG · Defensores de Cambaceres 1.28 — JJ Urquiza 1.32
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Defensores de Cambaceres 2.40 · Draw 2.84 · JJ Urquiza 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Defensores de Cambaceres 36.8% · Draw 31.1% · JJ Urquiza 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Defensores de Cambaceres 2.40 · Draw 2.84 · JJ Urquiza 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Defensores de Cambaceres 36.8% · Draw 31.1% · JJ Urquiza 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
27/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Defensores de Cambaceres 0–0 JJ Urquiza
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Defensores de Cambaceres or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Defensores de Cambaceres"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "JJ Urquiza",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 28,
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"pick": "Yes",
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
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"scores": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Defensores de Cambaceres or JJ Urquiza",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
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{
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}
]
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},
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"text": "-29.5%"
},
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"text": "+25%+"
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{
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},
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},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3111,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.1,
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},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10509.85,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0685,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.9,
"text": "-6.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0685,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.9,
"text": "-6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "JJ Urquiza",
"sort_key": 1782.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "JJ Urquiza",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.08,
"hero_label": "JJ Urquiza",
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"market_team": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "JJ Urquiza",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates JJ Urquiza at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies JJ Urquiza as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "JJ Urquiza",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +56.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +56.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +56.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+56.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0685,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.08,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "JJ Urquiza",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates JJ Urquiza at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies JJ Urquiza as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "JJ Urquiza",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +56.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +56.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +56.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+56.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0685,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Defensores de Cambaceres 1.28 xG vs JJ Urquiza 1.32 \u2192 JJ Urquiza 36.1%",
"Market: Defensores de Cambaceres ~32.0% implied",
"Market Drift: JJ Urquiza odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours JJ Urquiza, but the market has moved away from JJ Urquiza.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.6,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"market_prob": 36.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "JJ Urquiza",
"market_prob": 32.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.63,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.63,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.02,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.02,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "JJ Urquiza",
"market_prob_pct": 32.03,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "JJ Urquiza"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "JJ Urquiza",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Defensores de Cambaceres 1.28 xG vs JJ Urquiza 1.32 \u2192 JJ Urquiza 36.1%",
"Market: Defensores de Cambaceres ~32.0% implied",
"Market Drift: JJ Urquiza odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours JJ Urquiza, but the market has moved away from JJ Urquiza.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.08,
"hero_label": "JJ Urquiza",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "JJ Urquiza odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on JJ Urquiza.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on JJ Urquiza."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on JJ Urquiza (\u2191 +20.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "JJ Urquiza",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.6,
"edge_pp": -2.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"market_prob_pct": 36.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.48,
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.08,
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "JJ Urquiza",
"market_prob_pct": 32.03,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on JJ Urquiza.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Defensores de Cambaceres (32.0%).",
"However, JJ Urquiza has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 1/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 JJ Urquiza, Market \u2192 Defensores de Cambaceres, while JJ Urquiza odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.23,
"closing_odds": 2.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.23,
"entry_odds": 2.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on JJ Urquiza (20.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.76",
"2.50",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.95 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 3m",
"pick_team": "JJ Urquiza",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.76,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "JJ Urquiza",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Market moved away from JJ Urquiza while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "JJ Urquiza",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "JJ Urquiza",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "JJ Urquiza",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "jj-urquiza",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "JJ Urquiza",
"away_team_id": 8378,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8378.webp",
"away_team_name": "JJ Urquiza",
"away_team_public_id": "21dxgc4rjLnJoq",
"away_team_slug": "jj-urquiza",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1500114,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"home_team_id": 8392,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8392.webp",
"home_team_name": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"home_team_public_id": "31krepop332Hlp",
"home_team_slug": "defensores-de-cambaceres",
"ht.home_team_slug": "defensores-de-cambaceres",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 21:30:00",
"public_id": "1cX1VQ32nLEduF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4226,
"best_odd": 2.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3203,
"draw": 0.3113,
"home": 0.3684
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4401,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.1342,
"implied_prob": 0.3113,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3203,
"draw": 0.3113,
"home": 0.3684
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3049
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4325,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1429,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3203,
"draw": 0.3113,
"home": 0.3684
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3571
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.76,
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": -0.0554,
"ev": -0.1574,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0743,
"ev": -0.1783,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1873,
"alpha_yes": 0.1362,
"best_no_odd": 1.55,
"best_yes_odd": 2.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1602,
"edge_yes": 0.1602,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2947,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1463,
"ev_yes": 0.4279,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0503,
"implied_no": 0.6152,
"implied_yes": 0.3848,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1873,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1463,
"implied_prob": 0.6171,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5867
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"best_odd": 2.345,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0503,
"implied_prob": 0.3829,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.405
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5867,
"p_final_yes": 0.405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0813,
"alpha_under": 0.1789,
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.33,
"consensus_over_odd": 3.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.29,
"edge_over": 0.1863,
"edge_under": -0.1863,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5665,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0476,
"ev_under": -0.3111,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1361,
"implied_over": 0.2957,
"implied_over_mf": 0.2972,
"implied_under": 0.7043,
"implied_under_mf": 0.7028,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0813,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0476,
"implied_prob": 0.2972,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3123
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1789,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0331,
"ev": -0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.7028,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6697
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3123,
"p_final_under": 0.6697,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates JJ Urquiza at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies JJ Urquiza as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "JJ Urquiza",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +56.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +56.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +56.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+56.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from JJ Urquiza, but the model still strongly favours JJ Urquiza.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0685,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "JJ Urquiza"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.345,
"edge": 0.0221,
"market_prob": 0.3829,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1873,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1463,
"implied_prob": 0.6171,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5867
},
"p_final": 0.405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0503,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"best_odd": 2.345,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0503,
"implied_prob": 0.3829,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.405
}
},
"edge": 0.1602,
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0813,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.2972,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0813,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0476,
"implied_prob": 0.2972,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3123
},
"p_final": 0.3123,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0476,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1789,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0331,
"ev": -0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.7028,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6697
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1863,
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.2957,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500114,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5665,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.2957,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.2957,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "JJ Urquiza",
"home": "Defensores de Cambaceres"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.233206,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0685,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500114,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T21:29:15.574864+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Defensores de Cambaceres & JJ Urquiza!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 48 |
| 2 | Lugano | 30 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Mercedes | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Centro Español | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 24 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 29 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 41 |
| 3 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 42 |
| 4 | Lugano | 30 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 30 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 30 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 10 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 28 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 41 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 29 |
