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Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về San Martin S.J., nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Ước tính hợp lý về mặt thống kê cao hơn đáng kể so với thị trường trên San Martin S.J..
Tuy nhiên, Gimnasia Jujuy đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Gimnasia Jujuy.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 31.94% | 45.36% | -13.4 pp |
| Hòa | 29.57% | 30.62% | -1.1 pp |
| San Martin S.J. | 38.49% | 24.02% | +14.5 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Gimnasia Jujuy market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Gimnasia Jujuy
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"fair_confidence": "medium",
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"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Martin S.J.",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 24.0,
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"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
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"reliability_icon": "!",
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"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
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"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
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"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Gimnasia Jujuy has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Martin S.J..",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Gimnasia Jujuy.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Martin S.J..",
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],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
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"market_narrative": {
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],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
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"model_validation": {
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"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
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"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
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"side": "home"
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{
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}
],
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"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Gimnasia Jujuy.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
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"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gimnasia Jujuy (24.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 San Martin S.J., Market \u2192 Gimnasia Jujuy, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
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{
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"id": "closing_recorded",
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{
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"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
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"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Gimnasia Jujuy",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Gimnasia Jujuy",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 461,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/461.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Martin S.J.",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498606,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 479,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/479.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gimnasia Jujuy",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 23:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jujuy",
"venue_name": "Estadio 23 de Agosto"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 3.825,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2402,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.2741
},
"draw": {
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"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.0905,
"implied_prob": 0.3062,
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3032
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3595,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0482,
"ev": -0.179,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.4054
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.17,
"edge_no": -0.0961,
"edge_yes": 0.0961,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2111,
"ev_yes": 0.1805,
"implied_no": 0.5521,
"implied_yes": 0.4479,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.65,
"best_under_odd": 1.55,
"edge_over": 0.0987,
"edge_under": -0.0987,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2773,
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"implied_over": 0.3833,
"implied_under": 0.6167,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2773,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2402,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Martin S.J."
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0961,
"ev": 0.1805,
"implied_prob": 0.4479,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0987,
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498606,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2773,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Martin S.J.",
"home": "Gimnasia Jujuy"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.098192,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1805,
"implied_prob": 0.4479,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498606,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T10:02:45.587671+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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