Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Gainsborough Trinity Anstey Nomads ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Anstey Nomads win · Gainsborough Trinity 2–3 Anstey Nomads
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b4011336e1f4e1729e31a8eb86fd8db6e5f72d53d630cd3c977e08f3f36507ed",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Anstey Nomads",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Anstey Nomads"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0882,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4491,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.98
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.98,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Gainsborough Trinity Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.23,
"market_odds": 1.98,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -14.4,
"value_pct": -28.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gainsborough Trinity or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gainsborough Trinity or Anstey Nomads",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Anstey Nomads",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Gainsborough Trinity or Anstey Nomads",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Gainsborough Trinity"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.1,
"implied_prob": 28.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.55
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Anstey Nomads",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.04,
"draw": 25.05,
"home": 44.91
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:06:30",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:47:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.91,
"gap_pp": -8.82,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.05,
"gap_pp": 4.62,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.04,
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.13,
"gap_pp": -9.93,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.87,
"gap_pp": 9.93,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.98,
"early": 1.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.91,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.55,
"early": 3.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.05,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.96,
"early": 2.96,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.04,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.13,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.18,
"early": 2.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.87,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.9,
"ev": 0.1812,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.45,
"market_prob": 0.1058,
"market_prob_pct": 10.6,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.017,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4043,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.5957,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"p_final": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1603,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0564,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.4043,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4212
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.4,
"text": "-22.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3002,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3002,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10420.18,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.325,
"edge": 0.0116,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3825,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"best_odd": 2.325,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0837,
"implied_prob": 0.3825,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3941
},
"p_final": 0.3941,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0579,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0837,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2206,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.6175,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6015
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2285,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.9,
"text": "+22.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2285,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10205.65,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2017,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.2,
"text": "-20.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0584,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"sort_key": 1785.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"alert_team": "Anstey Nomads",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.8,
"hero_label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"market_team": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gainsborough Trinity at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gainsborough Trinity as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2017,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.8,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"steam_team": "Anstey Nomads",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gainsborough Trinity at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gainsborough Trinity as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2017,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gainsborough Trinity 1.32 xG vs Anstey Nomads 1.28 \u2192 Gainsborough Trinity 36.1%",
"Market: Gainsborough Trinity ~44.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Anstey Nomads odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gainsborough Trinity with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.8,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"market_prob": 44.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.6,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.2,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Anstey Nomads",
"market_prob": 30.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.96,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.96,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"market_prob_pct": 44.91,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Anstey Nomads"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gainsborough Trinity\u0027s win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Gainsborough Trinity \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gainsborough Trinity 1.32 xG vs Anstey Nomads 1.28 \u2192 Gainsborough Trinity 36.1%",
"Market: Gainsborough Trinity ~44.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Anstey Nomads odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gainsborough Trinity with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.8,
"hero_label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Anstey Nomads odds lengthened \u2191 +18.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Anstey Nomads has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Gainsborough Trinity. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Anstey Nomads \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Gainsborough Trinity. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Anstey Nomads has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Anstey Nomads \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Gainsborough Trinity above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Anstey Nomads has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gainsborough Trinity higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.8,
"edge_pp": -8.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"market_prob_pct": 44.91,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.6,
"edge_pp": 4.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.05,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.2,
"edge_pp": 4.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Anstey Nomads",
"market_prob_pct": 30.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Anstey Nomads \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gainsborough Trinity (44.9%).",
"However, Anstey Nomads has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.3%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Gainsborough Trinity \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.51,
"closing_odds": 1.98,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.51,
"entry_odds": 1.98,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 54h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Anstey Nomads (18.3%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.86",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 54h 9m",
"pick_team": "Anstey Nomads",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
2.96,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Anstey Nomads",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Anstey Nomads",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Anstey Nomads",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Anstey Nomads",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_team_name": "Anstey Nomads",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "anstey-nomads",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Anstey Nomads",
"away_team_id": 8681,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8681.webp",
"away_team_name": "Anstey Nomads",
"away_team_public_id": "24VoXZQKwRbHb2",
"away_team_slug": "anstey-nomads",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1641630,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"home_team_id": 4691,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4691.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"home_team_public_id": "31JI1kMZW0aT8n",
"home_team_slug": "gainsborough-trinity",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gainsborough-trinity",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "C\u00fap FA",
"league_id": 45,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/45.webp",
"league_name": "C\u00fap FA",
"league_public_id": "3qBU7du2W45n9v",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4iTfJSlUzOEw2y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4217,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.3004,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3004,
"draw": 0.2505,
"home": 0.4491
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3181
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2792,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3004,
"draw": 0.2505,
"home": 0.4491
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2634
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5206,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0459,
"ev": -0.2017,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3004,
"draw": 0.2505,
"home": 0.4491
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4032
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": 0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.3378,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": 0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.1441,
"ev": -0.2854,
"implied_prob": 0.5051,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1604,
"alpha_yes": 0.2206,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0796,
"edge_yes": -0.0796,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2285,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0837,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1338,
"implied_no": 0.3754,
"implied_yes": 0.6246,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"best_odd": 2.325,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0837,
"implied_prob": 0.3825,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3941
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2206,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.6175,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6015
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3941,
"p_final_yes": 0.6015,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2053,
"alpha_under": 0.1493,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.51,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.24,
"edge_over": -0.1178,
"edge_under": 0.1178,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.13,
"ev_under": 0.3002,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0564,
"implied_over": 0.5998,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5957,
"implied_under": 0.4002,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4043,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.5957,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.4043,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4212
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5724,
"p_final_under": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gainsborough Trinity at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gainsborough Trinity as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gainsborough Trinity",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gainsborough Trinity).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2017,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0459,
"ev": -0.2017,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gainsborough Trinity"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.325,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.3825,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"best_odd": 2.325,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0837,
"implied_prob": 0.3825,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3941
},
"p_final": 0.3941,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0837,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2206,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.6175,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6015
}
},
"edge": 0.0796,
"ev": 0.2285,
"implied_prob": 0.3754,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.4043,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.5957,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"p_final": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0564,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.4043,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4212
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1178,
"ev": 0.3002,
"implied_prob": 0.4002,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1641630,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3002,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2285,
"implied_prob": 0.3754,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2285,
"implied_prob": 0.3754,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Anstey Nomads",
"home": "Gainsborough Trinity"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108853,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3002,
"implied_prob": 0.4002,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2017,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641630,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T14:06:32.638232+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Gainsborough Trinity & Anstey Nomads!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
