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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 UTS Rabat UTS Rabat ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
UTS Rabat win · Widad Témara 0–1 UTS Rabat
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ba6799df119680db2b62248c110b853ed8034fa6fa0e1e9fa674705de371fc01",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "UTS Rabat",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0842,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2718,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.37
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.37,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "UTS Rabat Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.68,
"market_odds": 3.37,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 5.9,
"value_pct": 19.9,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Widad T\u00e9mara or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Widad T\u00e9mara or UTS Rabat",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or UTS Rabat",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Widad T\u00e9mara or UTS Rabat",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "UTS Rabat"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.0,
"implied_prob": 29.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "UTS Rabat Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 3.37
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "UTS Rabat",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.18,
"draw": 39.99,
"home": 32.83
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 17:59:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 17:29:58",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.83,
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.99,
"gap_pp": -10.32,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.18,
"gap_pp": 8.42,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.62,
"gap_pp": 15.58,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.38,
"gap_pp": -15.58,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.79,
"early": 2.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.83,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.99,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
"early": 3.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.18,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.62,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.38,
"early": 1.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.38,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.118,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0199,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3419,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.3419,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3618
},
"p_final": 0.3618,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2942,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0285,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.6581,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6307
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3882,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 38.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.4,
"text": "-25.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3882,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10499.38,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0211,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1257,
"implied_prob": 0.568,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5447
},
"p_final": 0.4531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.15,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.432,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4531
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.6,
"text": "+22.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2263,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10203.67,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0098,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0098,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1994,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "UTS Rabat",
"sort_key": 1797.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"alert_team": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.34,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "UTS Rabat",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UTS Rabat at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UTS Rabat as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UTS Rabat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1994,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.34,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"steam_team": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UTS Rabat at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UTS Rabat as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UTS Rabat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1994,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Widad T\u00e9mara 1.29 xG vs UTS Rabat 1.31 \u2192 UTS Rabat 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~27.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Widad T\u00e9mara odds \u2191 +19.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean UTS Rabat with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.87,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"market_prob": 32.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 39.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.46,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "UTS Rabat",
"market_prob": 27.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.97,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.97,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 39.99,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Widad T\u00e9mara"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "UTS Rabat",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "UTS Rabat \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Widad T\u00e9mara 1.29 xG vs UTS Rabat 1.31 \u2192 UTS Rabat 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~27.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Widad T\u00e9mara odds \u2191 +19.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean UTS Rabat with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.34,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Widad T\u00e9mara odds lengthened \u2191 +19.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Widad T\u00e9mara has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Draw than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Widad T\u00e9mara \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Draw than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Widad T\u00e9mara has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Widad T\u00e9mara \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Draw more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Widad T\u00e9mara has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Widad T\u00e9mara."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.87,
"edge_pp": 1.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"market_prob_pct": 32.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.34,
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 39.99,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.46,
"edge_pp": 8.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "UTS Rabat",
"market_prob_pct": 27.18,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Widad T\u00e9mara \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (27.2%).",
"However, Widad T\u00e9mara has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +19.6%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 UTS Rabat, Market \u2192 Draw, while Widad T\u00e9mara odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Widad T\u00e9mara together (19.6% drift, score 82) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.79",
"2.54",
"2.30"
],
"display": "3.12 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 45m",
"pick_team": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.12"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.79,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Widad T\u00e9mara odds \u2191 +19.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Widad T\u00e9mara odds \u2191 +19.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_team_name": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "uts-rabat",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "UTS Rabat",
"away_team_id": 14806,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14806.webp",
"away_team_name": "UTS Rabat",
"away_team_public_id": "37CXyVJhYzp8zW",
"away_team_slug": "uts-rabat",
"country_code": "MA",
"country_display_name": "Morocco",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ma.svg",
"country_id": 111,
"country_name": "Morocco",
"fixture_id": 1640787,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Morocco",
"home_team_display_name": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"home_team_id": 3458,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3458.webp",
"home_team_name": "Widad T\u00e9mara",
"home_team_public_id": "0b0Hy2QxNl8N0q",
"home_team_slug": "widad-temara",
"ht.home_team_slug": "widad-temara",
"league_country": "Morocco",
"league_country_display": "Morocco",
"league_display_name": "Botola Pro",
"league_id": 200,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/200.webp",
"league_name": "Botola Pro",
"league_public_id": "2ZJmChFp0Ldm1r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 18:00:00",
"public_id": "5eehOvr1dGndbS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2621,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2718,
"draw": 0.3999,
"home": 0.3283
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2938
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3804,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.174,
"implied_prob": 0.3999,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2718,
"draw": 0.3999,
"home": 0.3283
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3607
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4372,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2718,
"draw": 0.3999,
"home": 0.3283
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3366
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": 0.0592,
"ev": 0.1995,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.1399,
"ev": -0.3204,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0311,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2056,
"alpha_yes": 0.1869,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1097,
"edge_yes": 0.1097,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1257,
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0439,
"implied_no": 0.5647,
"implied_yes": 0.4353,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1257,
"implied_prob": 0.568,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5447
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.432,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4531
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5447,
"p_final_yes": 0.4531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1422,
"alpha_under": 0.1955,
"best_over_odd": 2.88,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.685,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.395,
"edge_over": 0.1417,
"edge_under": -0.1417,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3882,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0285,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1202,
"implied_over": 0.3403,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3419,
"implied_under": 0.6597,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6581,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.3419,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3618
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.6581,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6307
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3618,
"p_final_under": 0.6307,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UTS Rabat at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UTS Rabat as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UTS Rabat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UTS Rabat).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1994,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "UTS Rabat"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0211,
"market_prob": 0.432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1257,
"implied_prob": 0.568,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5447
},
"p_final": 0.4531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.432,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4531
}
},
"edge": 0.1097,
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4353,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.3419,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.3419,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3618
},
"p_final": 0.3618,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0285,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.6581,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6307
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1417,
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1640787,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3882,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4353,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4353,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "UTS Rabat",
"home": "Widad T\u00e9mara"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.130979,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1994,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640787,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T17:59:17.320188+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Widad Témara & UTS Rabat!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Botola Pro — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | UTS Rabat | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Hassania Agadir | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Ittihad Tanger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Raja Casablanca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | CODM Meknès | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | FAR Rabat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Kawkab Marrakech | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Wydad AC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Widad Témara | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Amal Tiznit | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Moghreb Tetouan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Renaissance Berkane | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | FUS Rabat | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Difaâ El Jadida | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hassania Agadir | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | CODM Meknès | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Maghreb Fès | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Ittihad Tanger | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | UTS Rabat | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Kawkab Marrakech | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Wydad AC | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Widad Témara | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Amal Tiznit | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Difaâ El Jadida | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Raja Casablanca | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 13 | FAR Rabat | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Moghreb Tetouan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | FUS Rabat | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Renaissance Berkane | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
