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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Sol de América Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · 12 de Junio VH 1–1 Sol de América
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "70a31be47e3ad985c3aa2bd140ce4d4593da82d6a9c1eb9c52fbfb297ccd6135",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.144,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2316,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "draftkings",
"odd": 4.0
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.0,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "draftkings",
"display_market": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.32,
"market_odds": 4.0,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 12.6,
"value_pct": 50.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "12 de Junio VH or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "12 de Junio VH or Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "12 de Junio VH or Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "draftkings",
"edge": 50.4,
"implied_prob": 25.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 4.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.16,
"draw": 28.08,
"home": 48.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "draftkings",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:56:04",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "draftkings",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:50:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "12 de Junio VH",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.76,
"gap_pp": -15.89,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.08,
"gap_pp": 1.49,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.16,
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.9,
"early": 1.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.3,
"early": 3.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.08,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.16,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0174,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4558,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1336,
"implied_prob": 0.5442,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5251
},
"p_final": 0.4732,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0736,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4732
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2174,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.7,
"text": "-21.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.4,
"text": "+14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1445,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10280.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0139,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.413,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4269
},
"p_final": 0.4269,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0483,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0715,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.7,
"text": "+15.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1568,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10141.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0168,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0168,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5028,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+50.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"sort_key": 5213.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.8%",
"alert_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.91,
"hero_label": "12 de Junio VH",
"market_prob_pct": 23.2,
"market_team": "12 de Junio VH",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sol de Am\u00e9rica at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sol de Am\u00e9rica as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640782 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5028,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+50.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.91,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.8%",
"steam_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sol de Am\u00e9rica at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sol de Am\u00e9rica as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640782 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5028,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+50.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 12 de Junio VH 1.25 xG vs Sol de Am\u00e9rica 1.35 \u2192 Sol de Am\u00e9rica 37.5%",
"Market: 12 de Junio VH ~23.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Sol de Am\u00e9rica odds \u2191 +25.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.91,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "12 de Junio VH",
"market_prob": 48.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.38,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"market_prob": 23.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.21,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.21,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "12 de Junio VH",
"market_prob_pct": 48.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates 12 de Junio VH\u0027s win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 15.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.3,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 12 de Junio VH 1.25 xG vs Sol de Am\u00e9rica 1.35 \u2192 Sol de Am\u00e9rica 37.5%",
"Market: 12 de Junio VH ~23.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Sol de Am\u00e9rica odds \u2191 +25.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.91,
"hero_label": "12 de Junio VH",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica odds lengthened \u2191 +25.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sol de Am\u00e9rica has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about 12 de Junio VH than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about 12 de Junio VH than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Sol de Am\u00e9rica has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors 12 de Junio VH more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sol de Am\u00e9rica has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.8%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "12 de Junio VH",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices 12 de Junio VH higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.91,
"edge_pp": -15.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "12 de Junio VH",
"market_prob_pct": 48.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.53,
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.08,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.38,
"edge_pp": 14.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"market_prob_pct": 23.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers 12 de Junio VH (23.2%).",
"However, Sol de Am\u00e9rica has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.8%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sol de Am\u00e9rica, Market \u2192 12 de Junio VH, while Sol de Am\u00e9rica odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 79h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Sol de Am\u00e9rica (25.8%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.50",
"3.10"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 79h 53m",
"pick_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.65,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sol-de-america",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"away_team_id": 1177,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1177.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"away_team_public_id": "3P0rcrQff3Ew88",
"away_team_slug": "sol-de-america",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1640782,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "12 de Junio VH",
"home_team_id": 23154,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23154.webp",
"home_team_name": "12 de Junio VH",
"home_team_public_id": "4BjfUYwGIWX965",
"home_team_slug": "12-de-junio-vh",
"ht.home_team_slug": "12-de-junio-vh",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Division Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_id": 251,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/251.webp",
"league_name": "Division Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_public_id": "0sWYiIa69VAN3C",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 20:00:00",
"public_id": "1URbgNLVXLpgDU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1568,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2316,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4876
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.2542
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2933,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0591,
"implied_prob": 0.2808,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2316,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4876
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2851
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.457,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0726,
"ev": -0.2115,
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2316,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4876
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.415
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.1257,
"ev": 0.5026,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0244,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.1976,
"ev": -0.3755,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2144,
"alpha_yes": 0.1949,
"best_no_odd": 1.72,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0921,
"edge_yes": 0.0921,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2174,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1336,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"implied_no": 0.5471,
"implied_yes": 0.4529,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1336,
"implied_prob": 0.5442,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5251
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4732
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5251,
"p_final_yes": 0.4732,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2017,
"alpha_under": 0.2219,
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.175,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.53,
"edge_over": 0.0681,
"edge_under": -0.0681,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0715,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1253,
"implied_over": 0.4139,
"implied_over_mf": 0.413,
"implied_under": 0.5861,
"implied_under_mf": 0.587,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4269
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5717
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4269,
"p_final_under": 0.5717,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5026,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sol de Am\u00e9rica at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sol de Am\u00e9rica as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640782 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sol de Am\u00e9rica, but the model still strongly favours Sol de Am\u00e9rica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5028,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+50.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0174,
"market_prob": 0.4558,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1336,
"implied_prob": 0.5442,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5251
},
"p_final": 0.4732,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4732
}
},
"edge": 0.0921,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4529,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.413,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4269
},
"p_final": 0.4269,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0715,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0681,
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1640782,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1568,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"home": "12 de Junio VH"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4529,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5028,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+50.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640782,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:59:13.029152+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho 12 de Junio VH & Sol de América!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Division Intermedia Paraguay — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santaní | 27 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 27 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 53 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 4 | Benjamín Aceval | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 42 |
| 5 | Sol de América | 27 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 41 |
| 6 | Independiente FBC | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 40 |
| 7 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 39 |
| 8 | Paraguari AC | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 9 | Atlético Tembetary | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 10 | Resistencia | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 35 |
| 11 | Fernando de la Mora | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 12 | Deportivo Capiatá | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Guaireña FC | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 24 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 27 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 22 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | General Caballero | 27 | 54 | 33 | +21 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Santaní | 27 | 46 | 25 | +21 | 54 |
| 3 | Benjamín Aceval | 27 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 42 |
| 4 | Independiente FBC | 27 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 40 |
| 5 | Atlético Tembetary | 27 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 36 |
| 6 | 12 de Junio VH | 27 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 50 |
| 7 | Paraguari AC | 27 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Sol de América | 27 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 41 |
| 9 | 3 de Noviembre | 27 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 26 |
| 10 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 27 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Resistencia | 27 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | Deportivo Capiatá | 27 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 29 |
| 13 | Fernando de la Mora | 27 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 34 |
| 14 | Tacuary | 27 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 24 |
| 15 | Encarnación | 27 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 22 |
| 16 | Guaireña FC | 27 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 25 |
