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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (7 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ponte Preta U20 Ponte Preta U20 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Ponte Preta U20 win · Ponte Preta U20 6–1 Portuguesa U20
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ddf47d1c5053b1d99af697fa61360992a69135f14687e27425f6e6d850930eca",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Portuguesa U20",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Portuguesa U20"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ponte Preta U20",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1003,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2556,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 3.5
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.5,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Ponte Preta U20 Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.91,
"market_odds": 3.5,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 11.8,
"prob_edge": 7.0,
"value_pct": 24.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 13,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 13,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ponte Preta U20 or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ponte Preta U20 or Portuguesa U20",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Portuguesa U20",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ponte Preta U20 or Portuguesa U20",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ponte Preta U20"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 24.6,
"implied_prob": 28.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ponte Preta U20 Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 3.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Portuguesa U20",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 48.88,
"draw": 25.56,
"home": 25.56
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:03:04",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 17:34:31",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ponte Preta U20",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.56,
"gap_pp": 10.03,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.56,
"gap_pp": 4.12,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.88,
"gap_pp": -14.15,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.95,
"gap_pp": -5.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.05,
"gap_pp": 5.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.56,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.56,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.88,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.118,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4674,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.521
},
"p_final": 0.4779,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0153,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0633,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4779
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0159,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0159,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ponte Preta U20",
"sort_key": 1796.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0015,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"market_prob": 0.4454,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.4454,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4469
},
"p_final": 0.4469,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1105,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1263,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1708,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.553
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0718,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1062,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0718,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1782.05,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.18,
"hero_label": "Portuguesa U20",
"market_prob_pct": 25.6,
"market_team": "Portuguesa U20",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Ponte Preta U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2458,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ponte Preta U20 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ponte Preta U20 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ponte Preta U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ponte Preta U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640192 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.18,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ponte Preta U20",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2458,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ponte Preta U20 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ponte Preta U20 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ponte Preta U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ponte Preta U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640192 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ponte Preta U20 1.31 xG vs Portuguesa U20 1.29 \u2192 Ponte Preta U20 35.6%",
"Market: Portuguesa U20 ~25.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Ponte Preta U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ponte Preta U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.08,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Ponte Preta U20",
"market_prob": 25.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.09,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.18,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Portuguesa U20",
"market_prob": 48.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.96,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.96,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Portuguesa U20",
"market_prob_pct": 48.88,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ponte Preta U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Portuguesa U20\u0027s win probability at 48.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ponte Preta U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ponte Preta U20 1.31 xG vs Portuguesa U20 1.29 \u2192 Ponte Preta U20 35.6%",
"Market: Portuguesa U20 ~25.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Ponte Preta U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ponte Preta U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.18,
"hero_label": "Portuguesa U20",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Portuguesa U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Portuguesa U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Portuguesa U20 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Portuguesa U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Portuguesa U20 (pricing gap 14.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Portuguesa U20",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Portuguesa U20 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.08,
"edge_pp": 10.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ponte Preta U20",
"market_prob_pct": 25.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.09,
"edge_pp": 4.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.18,
"edge_pp": -14.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Portuguesa U20",
"market_prob_pct": 48.88,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Portuguesa U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Portuguesa U20 (25.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ponte Preta U20, Market \u2192 Portuguesa U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/4",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Ponte Preta U20",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Ponte Preta U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "portuguesa-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Portuguesa U20",
"away_team_id": 13045,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13045.webp",
"away_team_name": "Portuguesa U20",
"away_team_public_id": "53e3DypUa2SJhM",
"away_team_slug": "portuguesa-u20",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1640192,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Ponte Preta U20",
"home_team_id": 13044,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13044.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ponte Preta U20",
"home_team_public_id": "4z8y6jc8Mv7iIf",
"home_team_slug": "ponte-preta-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ponte-preta-u20",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Paulista U20",
"league_id": 1086,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Paulista U20",
"league_public_id": "1Z9EyPySP5tPsw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 18:00:00",
"public_id": "06A9wPoyIE33SG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4726,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0669,
"ev": -0.2279,
"implied_prob": 0.4888,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4888,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.2556
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4219
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4888,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.2556
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2672
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2548,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": -0.0159,
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4888,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.2556
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2812
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1992,
"ev": -0.3645,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": 0.0388,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0702,
"ev": 0.2458,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1552,
"alpha_yes": 0.1708,
"best_no_odd": 2.04,
"best_yes_odd": 1.64,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0096,
"edge_yes": -0.0096,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0718,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"ev_yes": -0.1062,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1318,
"implied_no": 0.4454,
"implied_yes": 0.5546,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.4454,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4469
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1708,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.553
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4469,
"p_final_yes": 0.553,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2287,
"alpha_under": 0.2079,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.96,
"edge_over": -0.0517,
"edge_under": 0.0517,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1038,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0633,
"implied_over": 0.5337,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5326,
"implied_under": 0.4663,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4674,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.521
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4779
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.521,
"p_final_under": 0.4779,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2458,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2458,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ponte Preta U20 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ponte Preta U20 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ponte Preta U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ponte Preta U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640192 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ponte Preta U20, but the model still strongly favours Ponte Preta U20.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": -0.0159,
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ponte Preta U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0015,
"market_prob": 0.4454,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.955,
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.4454,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4469
},
"p_final": 0.4469,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1263,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1708,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.553
}
},
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.4454,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4674,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.521
},
"p_final": 0.4779,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0633,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4779
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4663,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1640192,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Portuguesa U20",
"home": "Ponte Preta U20"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4663,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640192,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T18:03:06.245948+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ponte Preta U20 & Portuguesa U20!
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Đăng ký ngay
Giải Paulista U20 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
