Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 French Guyana French Guyana ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
French Guyana win · French Guyana 1–0 Sint Maarten
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : French Guyana or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "French Guyana"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0968,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.92
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "French Guyana Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.1,
"market_odds": 1.92,
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"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -14.1,
"value_pct": -27.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
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"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "French Guyana or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "French Guyana or Sint Maarten",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sint Maarten",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "French Guyana"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"label": "Draw",
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"odds": 3.76
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.93,
"draw": 24.36,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 20:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 20:29:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "French Guyana",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.36,
"gap_pp": 5.23,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.93,
"gap_pp": 4.44,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.81,
"gap_pp": -8.61,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.19,
"gap_pp": 8.61,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.92,
"early": 1.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.71,
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},
{
"closing": 3.76,
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{
"closing": 3.28,
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{
"closing": 1.65,
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{
"closing": 2.17,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
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"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0169,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4316,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"p_final": 0.4485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1189,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0312,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1396,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10275.64,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0073,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4126,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4199
},
"p_final": 0.4199,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0192,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5773
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0488,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0488,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10043.92,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1793,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.9,
"text": "-17.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4771,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0296,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.0,
"text": "-3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "French Guyana",
"sort_key": 1792.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.7,
"hero_label": "French Guyana",
"market_prob_pct": 47.7,
"market_team": "French Guyana",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "French Guyana",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates French Guyana at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies French Guyana as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "French Guyana",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1793,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4771,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.7,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "French Guyana",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates French Guyana at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies French Guyana as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "French Guyana",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1793,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4771,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: French Guyana 1.36 xG vs Sint Maarten 1.24 \u2192 French Guyana 38.0%",
"Market: French Guyana ~47.7% implied",
"Market Steam: French Guyana +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean French Guyana with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.7,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "French Guyana",
"market_prob": 47.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.23,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.46,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Sint Maarten",
"market_prob": 27.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.68,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.68,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.22,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.22,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "French Guyana",
"market_prob_pct": 47.71,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "French Guyana"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates French Guyana\u0027s win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "French Guyana",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "French Guyana \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: French Guyana 1.36 xG vs Sint Maarten 1.24 \u2192 French Guyana 38.0%",
"Market: French Guyana ~47.7% implied",
"Market Steam: French Guyana +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean French Guyana with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.7,
"hero_label": "French Guyana",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on French Guyana. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for French Guyana relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on French Guyana. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices French Guyana above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "French Guyana",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices French Guyana higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.7,
"edge_pp": -9.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "French Guyana",
"market_prob_pct": 47.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.23,
"edge_pp": 5.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.36,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.46,
"edge_pp": 4.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sint Maarten",
"market_prob_pct": 27.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for French Guyana relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers French Guyana (47.7%).",
"French Guyana \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"closing_odds": 1.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.08,
"entry_odds": 1.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "French Guyana",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_team_name": "French Guyana",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sint-maarten",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sint Maarten",
"away_team_id": 10985,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10985.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sint Maarten",
"away_team_public_id": "2i8hdN6KFjOZk9",
"away_team_slug": "sint-maarten",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639964,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "French-Guiana",
"home_team_display_name": "French Guyana",
"home_team_id": 8118,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8118.webp",
"home_team_name": "French Guyana",
"home_team_public_id": "0z668eOCUnAFaE",
"home_team_slug": "french-guyana",
"ht.home_team_slug": "french-guyana",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_id": 536,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/536.webp",
"league_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_public_id": "3VxzyWtiGZmmhf",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 21:00:00",
"public_id": "2PYSUgRQ7Bo4hO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Belmopan",
"venue_name": "FFB Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.28,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.2793,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2793,
"draw": 0.2436,
"home": 0.4771
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2917
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2765,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0296,
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2793,
"draw": 0.2436,
"home": 0.4771
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2581
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5129,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0496,
"ev": -0.1793,
"implied_prob": 0.4771,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2793,
"draw": 0.2436,
"home": 0.4771
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4275
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": 0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.76,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.1127,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.1405,
"ev": -0.2698,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1683,
"alpha_yes": 0.2314,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0422,
"edge_yes": -0.0422,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0488,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0615,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0936,
"implied_no": 0.4138,
"implied_yes": 0.5862,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4199
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5773
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4199,
"p_final_yes": 0.5773,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2154,
"alpha_under": 0.1958,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.0868,
"edge_under": 0.0868,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0983,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0312,
"implied_over": 0.5688,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5684,
"implied_under": 0.4312,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4316,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4485
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5498,
"p_final_under": 0.4485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates French Guyana at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies French Guyana as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "French Guyana",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (French Guyana).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1793,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4771,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0496,
"ev": -0.1793,
"implied_prob": 0.4771,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "French Guyana"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0073,
"market_prob": 0.4126,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4199
},
"p_final": 0.4199,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5773
}
},
"edge": 0.0422,
"ev": 0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.4138,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.4316,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"p_final": 0.4485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0312,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4485
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0868,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4312,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639964,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sint Maarten",
"home": "French Guyana"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4312,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1793,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4771,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639964,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T20:59:06.846426+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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