Clachnacuddin vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Statistics & Analysis

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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2954,
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      "fair_odds_away": 3.18,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.57,
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      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "No predictions available",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "33%",
      "percent_draw": "33%",
      "percent_home": "33%",
      "winner_name": null
    },
    "away_xg": 1.22,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Clachnacuddin",
      "confidence": null,
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        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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        "edge_gap": 0.0747,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.316,
        "model_prob": 0.3897,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 31.5,
          "draw": 29.5,
          "home": 39.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.81
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.81,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Clachnacuddin Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.16,
        "market_odds": 2.81,
        "model_odds": 2.57,
        "overround": 12.6,
        "prob_edge": 3.3,
        "value_pct": 9.3,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
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        "away_played": 0,
        "away_score_rate": 70.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 0,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 0,
        "home_score_rate": 74.8,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.4
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.38,
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            "away": 0,
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            "prob": 8.6
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            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 7.6
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Clachnacuddin or Draw",
            "prob": 68.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Clachnacuddin or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
            "prob": 70.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
            "prob": 61.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Clachnacuddin or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
        "pick_prob": 70.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 31.5,
        "draw_pct": 29.5,
        "home_pct": 39.0,
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        "lean_label": "Clachnacuddin"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
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        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 9.6,
        "implied_prob": 35.6,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Clachnacuddin Win",
        "model_prob": 39.0,
        "odds": 2.81
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 44.4,
        "draw": 24.0,
        "home": 31.6
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE10",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:02:03",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:43:08",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Clachnacuddin",
      "largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
      "max_abs_move_pp": 4.21,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 31.6,
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          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 38.97
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 24.0,
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          "model_pct": 29.54
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          "closing_implied_pct": 44.4,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 63.01,
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          "model_pct": 48.2
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          "closing_implied_pct": 36.99,
          "gap_pp": 14.81,
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          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.81,
          "early": 2.47,
          "implied_closing_pct": 31.6,
          "implied_delta_pp": -3.55,
          "implied_early_pct": 35.15,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 3.7,
          "early": 3.52,
          "implied_closing_pct": 24.0,
          "implied_delta_pp": -0.66,
          "implied_early_pct": 24.66,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
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          "closing": 2.0,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 44.4,
          "implied_delta_pp": 4.21,
          "implied_early_pct": 40.19,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.45,
          "early": 1.44,
          "implied_closing_pct": 63.01,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.51,
          "implied_early_pct": 62.5,
          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.47,
          "early": 2.4,
          "implied_closing_pct": 36.99,
          "implied_delta_pp": -0.51,
          "implied_early_pct": 37.5,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": false,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 14.8,
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        "label": "1-1",
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        "market_prob": 0.125,
        "market_prob_pct": 12.5,
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        "model_prob_pct": 12.5,
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        "status_key": "no_value"
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        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
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        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 12.5
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        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 10.2
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          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 9.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 8.6
        },
        {
          "label": "1-2",
          "prob": 7.6
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.38,
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            "p_final": 0.3582
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          "raw_signal_ev": 0.2244,
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          "yes": {
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            "best_odd": 1.39,
            "edge": -0.0235,
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            "implied_prob": 0.6589,
            "model_prob": 0.544,
            "p_final": 0.6354
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        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.3133,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 31.3,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.2166,
        "ev_yes_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -21.7,
          "text": "-21.7%"
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      },
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          "alpha": 0.1377,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.52,
          "edge": 0.0216,
          "edge_pp": 2.2,
          "market_prob": 0.3612,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.1893,
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            "edge": -0.0297,
            "ev": -0.132,
            "implied_prob": 0.6388,
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "p_final": 0.6091
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          "p_final": 0.3828,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.3054,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0353,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.1377,
            "best_odd": 2.52,
            "edge": 0.0216,
            "ev": -0.0353,
            "implied_prob": 0.3612,
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "p_final": 0.3828
          },
          "value_side": "under"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2866,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -28.7,
          "text": "-28.7%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.3468,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 34.7,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.3468,
        "n_bookmakers": 5,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10312.12,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "no_bet",
        "authority_note": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
        "consensus_odds": 2.81,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "ev": -0.0292,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.9,
          "text": "-2.9%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.316,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.0292,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.9,
          "text": "-2.9%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3897,
        "raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.0951,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%",
        "show_primary_label": false,
        "side_label": "Clachnacuddin",
        "sort_key": 1792.7,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 12.9,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -12.92,
        "hero_label": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
        "market_prob_pct": 31.6,
        "market_team": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
        "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
        "model_team": "Clachnacuddin",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 12.9,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
          "summary": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "no_bet",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 12.9,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
            "summary": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin."
          },
          "alignment_key": "conflict",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 3.0,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
          "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
          "execution_confidence": 21,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Clachnacuddin at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Clachnacuddin as the value side (39.0%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 7.4,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "market_signal": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Clachnacuddin",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": "soft",
            "codes": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_conflict",
              "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
              "name": "Market Conflict",
              "short": "Market Conflict",
              "subtype": "probability_gap",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Reliability below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "60 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "21 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "conflict"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 5,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
            "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 60,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market steam conflicts with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "observe",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0292,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.81,
            "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
            "disagreement_level": "moderate",
            "implied_prob": 0.316,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3897,
            "raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
            "raw_signal_ev": 0.0951,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": 2.2,
            "reasons": [
              "Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "low",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": -10,
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.16
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "no_bet",
        "books_breadth_display": "3/8",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.375,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 55,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 18.5,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 3.8,
            "steam_coherence": 7.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 60,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 12.92,
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "max_gap_pp": 12.92,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.22,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 2.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.38,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.38,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Clachnacuddin",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
            "score": 21,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 22,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 38,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 22,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "label": "No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 12.9,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
            "summary": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": false,
              "direction_key": "conflict",
              "gap_pp": 12.9,
              "key": "conflict",
              "label": "Disagree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
              "summary": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin."
            },
            "alignment_key": "conflict",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
            "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
            "execution_confidence": 21,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Clachnacuddin at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Clachnacuddin as the value side (39.0%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 7.4,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u25cb",
            "label": "No Primary Bet",
            "market_signal": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Clachnacuddin",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": "soft",
              "codes": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "market_quality",
                  "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                  "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "tone": "warn"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_conflict",
                "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
                "name": "Market Conflict",
                "short": "Market Conflict",
                "subtype": "probability_gap",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Reliability below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "60 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "21 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "conflict"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 5,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
              "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 60,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market steam conflicts with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "observe",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0292,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.81,
              "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
              "disagreement_level": "moderate",
              "implied_prob": 0.316,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3897,
              "raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
              "raw_signal_ev": 0.0951,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": 2.2,
              "reasons": [
                "Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "low",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": -10,
                "strength_delta": -1.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.16
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "subline": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
          "tier": "observe"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Clachnacuddin 1.38 xG vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1.22 \u2192 Clachnacuddin 39.0%",
            "Market: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ~31.6% implied",
            "Market Steam: Clachnacuddin +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Clachnacuddin with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 7.37,
          "fair_prob": 38.97,
          "label": "Clachnacuddin",
          "market_prob": 31.6,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.54,
          "fair_prob": 29.54,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 24.0,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.92,
          "fair_prob": 31.48,
          "label": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
          "market_prob": 44.4,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.57,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 63.77,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.57,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 36.23,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -11.68,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 66.08,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.68,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 33.92,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -12.92,
        "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
        "market_prob_pct": 44.4,
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Clachnacuddin"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE10",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic\u0027s win probability at 44.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 12.92,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Clachnacuddin",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Conflicts with model",
            "positive": false
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 31.6,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 7.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 7.4,
            "label": "Moderate",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 60,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
              "score": 21,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 22,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 38,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 22,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "no_bet",
              "label": "No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Clachnacuddin 1.38 xG vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1.22 \u2192 Clachnacuddin 39.0%",
              "Market: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ~31.6% implied",
              "Market Steam: Clachnacuddin +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Clachnacuddin with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -12.92,
        "hero_label": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic than the current fair estimate."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
            "The market materially disagrees with the model on Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (pricing gap 12.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 12.92,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "strong",
          "largest_gap_label": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
          "largest_gap_pp": -12.9,
          "lead": "The closing market prices Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic higher than the statistical model.",
          "level": "strong",
          "max_gap_pp": 12.9,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 7.37,
            "edge_pp": 7.37,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Clachnacuddin",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.6,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 5.54,
            "edge_pp": 5.54,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.0,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -12.92,
            "edge_pp": -12.92,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
            "market_prob_pct": 44.4,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (31.6%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Clachnacuddin, Market \u2192 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
        "closing_odds": 2.0,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
        "entry_odds": 2.0,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE10",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/8",
        "current_odds": 2.3,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.3,
        "pick_team": "Clachnacuddin",
        "steam_score": 9,
        "steam_team_name": "Clachnacuddin",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 12.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "bonnyrigg-rose-athletic",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
      "away_team_id": 7431,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7431.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic",
      "away_team_public_id": "0aOEcgYBDax98q",
      "away_team_slug": "bonnyrigg-rose-athletic",
      "country_code": "GB-SCT",
      "country_display_name": "Scotland",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
      "country_id": 136,
      "country_name": "Scotland",
      "fixture_id": 1639492,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Scotland",
      "home_team_display_name": "Clachnacuddin",
      "home_team_id": 7435,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7435.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Clachnacuddin",
      "home_team_public_id": "5jgrYgnZZYWjVS",
      "home_team_slug": "clachnacuddin",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "clachnacuddin",
      "league_country": "Scotland",
      "league_country_display": "Scotland",
      "league_display_name": "C\u00fap FA Scotland",
      "league_id": 181,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/181.webp",
      "league_name": "C\u00fap FA Scotland",
      "league_public_id": "3NAKxhw16yoUjo",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
      "public_id": "3Bq4J6jmGR41l1",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3629,
            "best_odd": 2.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0468,
            "ev": -0.2057,
            "implied_prob": 0.444,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.444,
              "draw": 0.24,
              "home": 0.316
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3149,
            "p_final": 0.3972
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2751,
            "best_odd": 3.7,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0152,
            "ev": -0.0556,
            "implied_prob": 0.24,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.444,
              "draw": 0.24,
              "home": 0.316
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2954,
            "p_final": 0.2552
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4003,
            "best_odd": 2.81,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0295,
            "ev": -0.0292,
            "implied_prob": 0.316,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.444,
              "draw": 0.24,
              "home": 0.316
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3897,
            "p_final": 0.3455
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.0,
            "edge": -0.1851,
            "ev": -0.3702,
            "implied_prob": 0.5,
            "model_prob": 0.3149
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.7,
            "edge": 0.0251,
            "ev": 0.093,
            "implied_prob": 0.2703,
            "model_prob": 0.2954
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.81,
            "edge": 0.0338,
            "ev": 0.095,
            "implied_prob": 0.3559,
            "model_prob": 0.3897
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.149,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2048,
          "best_no_odd": 2.88,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.44,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.1168,
          "edge_yes": -0.1168,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.3133,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0382,
          "ev_yes": -0.2166,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1168,
          "implied_no": 0.3392,
          "implied_yes": 0.6608,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.149,
              "best_odd": 2.685,
              "edge": 0.0171,
              "ev": -0.0382,
              "implied_prob": 0.3411,
              "model_prob": 0.456,
              "p_final": 0.3582
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2048,
              "best_odd": 1.39,
              "edge": -0.0235,
              "ev": -0.1168,
              "implied_prob": 0.6589,
              "model_prob": 0.544,
              "p_final": 0.6354
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "p_final_no": 0.3582,
          "p_final_yes": 0.6354,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1893,
          "alpha_under": 0.1377,
          "best_over_odd": 1.48,
          "best_under_odd": 2.6,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.425,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.52,
          "edge_over": -0.1557,
          "edge_under": 0.1557,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2866,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.132,
          "ev_under": 0.3468,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0353,
          "implied_over": 0.6377,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.6388,
          "implied_under": 0.3623,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.3612,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1893,
              "best_odd": 1.425,
              "edge": -0.0297,
              "ev": -0.132,
              "implied_prob": 0.6388,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.6091
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1377,
              "best_odd": 2.52,
              "edge": 0.0216,
              "ev": -0.0353,
              "implied_prob": 0.3612,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.3828
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.6091,
          "p_final_under": 0.3828,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_pre_penalty": 4.0
      },
      "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "no_bet",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "no_bet",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 12.9,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
          "summary": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin."
        },
        "alignment_key": "conflict",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
        "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
        "execution_confidence": 21,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Clachnacuddin at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Clachnacuddin as the value side (39.0%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 7.4,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u25cb",
        "label": "No Primary Bet",
        "market_signal": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Clachnacuddin",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": "soft",
          "codes": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_conflict",
            "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
            "name": "Market Conflict",
            "short": "Market Conflict",
            "subtype": "probability_gap",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Reliability below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "60 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "21 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "conflict"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 5,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
          "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 60,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "The market has repriced Clachnacuddin, but the model still strongly favours Clachnacuddin.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "observe",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0292,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.81,
          "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
          "disagreement_level": "moderate",
          "implied_prob": 0.316,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3897,
          "raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.0951,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": 2.2,
          "reasons": [
            "Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -1.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "low",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": -10,
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.16
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2954,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.16
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T14:02:06.573927+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}