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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Melbourne Victory II Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.4
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Melbourne Victory II 1–1 Northcote City
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"away_win_prob": 0.3058,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Melbourne Victory II or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Melbourne Victory II"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Melbourne Victory II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0443,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3553,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.6,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 40.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.58
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.58,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Melbourne Victory II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.81,
"market_odds": 2.58,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": 1.2,
"value_pct": 3.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Melbourne Victory II or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Melbourne Victory II or Northcote City",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Northcote City",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Melbourne Victory II or Northcote City",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Melbourne Victory II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.2,
"implied_prob": 38.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Melbourne Victory II Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 2.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Northcote City",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.2,
"draw": 26.27,
"home": 35.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 09:29:42",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 09:00:39",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.75,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.53,
"gap_pp": 4.43,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.27,
"gap_pp": 3.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.2,
"gap_pp": -7.64,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.96,
"gap_pp": -10.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.04,
"gap_pp": 10.76,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.25,
"implied_early_pct": 35.28,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.49,
"early": 3.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.49,
"implied_early_pct": 25.78,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.2,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.75,
"implied_early_pct": 38.94,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.12,
"implied_early_pct": 58.84,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.04,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.12,
"implied_early_pct": 41.16,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0172,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4021,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1388,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"p_final": 0.4194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1551,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0648,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4194
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2481,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.8,
"text": "-24.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.3,
"text": "+23.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2328,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10359.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.385,
"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3748,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"p_final": 0.3878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0899,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0751,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6252,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6073
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1836,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.4,
"text": "+18.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2018,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.2,
"text": "-20.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1836,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10165.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0352,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0352,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Melbourne Victory II",
"sort_key": 1791.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"alert_team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.62,
"hero_label": "Northcote City",
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"market_team": "Northcote City",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Melbourne Victory II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Melbourne Victory II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Melbourne Victory II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0352,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.62,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"steam_team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Melbourne Victory II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Melbourne Victory II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Melbourne Victory II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0352,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Melbourne Victory II 1.40 xG vs Northcote City 1.20 \u2192 Melbourne Victory II 39.9%",
"Market: Northcote City ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Melbourne Victory II odds \u2191 +24.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Melbourne Victory II, but the market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.41,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Melbourne Victory II",
"market_prob": 35.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.21,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.62,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Northcote City",
"market_prob": 38.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.87,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.87,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.57,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Northcote City",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Melbourne Victory II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Northcote City\u0027s win probability at 38.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Melbourne Victory II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Melbourne Victory II 1.40 xG vs Northcote City 1.20 \u2192 Melbourne Victory II 39.9%",
"Market: Northcote City ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Melbourne Victory II odds \u2191 +24.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Melbourne Victory II, but the market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.62,
"hero_label": "Northcote City",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Melbourne Victory II odds lengthened \u2191 +24.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Melbourne Victory II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Northcote City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Melbourne Victory II \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Northcote City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Melbourne Victory II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Melbourne Victory II \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Northcote City above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Melbourne Victory II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Melbourne Victory II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Northcote City",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Northcote City higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.41,
"edge_pp": 4.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Melbourne Victory II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.21,
"edge_pp": 3.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.62,
"edge_pp": -7.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Northcote City",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Melbourne Victory II \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Northcote City (35.5%).",
"However, Melbourne Victory II has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +24.6%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Melbourne Victory II, Market \u2192 Northcote City, while Melbourne Victory II odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.67,
"closing_odds": 2.4,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.67,
"entry_odds": 2.4,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +32.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 32.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 24.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 52h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened Melbourne Victory II together (24.6% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.58",
"2.25",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.55 \u2192 1.89 \u2192 2.38",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 52h 18m",
"pick_team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.58,
2.55,
2.38
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.8 56.0,5.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.58"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Melbourne Victory II odds \u2191 +24.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Melbourne Victory II odds \u2191 +24.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from Melbourne Victory II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Melbourne Victory II",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Melbourne Victory II",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "northcote-city",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Northcote City",
"away_team_id": 16788,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16788.webp",
"away_team_name": "Northcote City",
"away_team_public_id": "4SbnWFitgKBJNu",
"away_team_slug": "northcote-city",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_display_name": "Australia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_id": 9,
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1639300,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_display_name": "Melbourne Victory II",
"home_team_id": 22823,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22823.webp",
"home_team_name": "Melbourne Victory II",
"home_team_public_id": "4TOEdqiUGZIl5s",
"home_team_slug": "melbourne-victory-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "melbourne-victory-ii",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_country_display": "Australia",
"league_display_name": "Victoria NPL 2",
"league_id": 836,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/836.webp",
"league_name": "Victoria NPL 2",
"league_public_id": "3oncTlJI5TVXF2",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 09:30:00",
"public_id": "1bxv7tq8b8bhae",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3984,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.382,
"draw": 0.2627,
"home": 0.3553
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3515
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.2627,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.382,
"draw": 0.2627,
"home": 0.3553
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2718
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4201,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0352,
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.382,
"draw": 0.2627,
"home": 0.3553
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.374
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.1111,
"ev": -0.2666,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": 0.0287,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": 0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1578,
"alpha_yes": 0.217,
"best_no_odd": 2.59,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0857,
"edge_yes": -0.0857,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1836,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0751,
"ev_yes": -0.2018,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1315,
"implied_no": 0.3713,
"implied_yes": 0.6287,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6252,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6073
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3878,
"p_final_yes": 0.6073,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2045,
"alpha_under": 0.1487,
"best_over_odd": 1.56,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.23,
"edge_over": -0.1187,
"edge_under": 0.1187,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2481,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1388,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0648,
"implied_over": 0.6007,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5979,
"implied_under": 0.3993,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4021,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1388,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4194
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5742,
"p_final_under": 0.4194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Melbourne Victory II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Melbourne Victory II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Melbourne Victory II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Melbourne Victory II, but the model still strongly favours Melbourne Victory II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0352,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0352,
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Melbourne Victory II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.385,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3748,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"p_final": 0.3878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0751,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6252,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6073
}
},
"edge": 0.0857,
"ev": 0.1836,
"implied_prob": 0.3713,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4021,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1388,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"p_final": 0.4194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0648,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0648,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1187,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3993,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639300,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1836,
"implied_prob": 0.3713,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.1836,
"implied_prob": 0.3713,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Northcote City",
"home": "Melbourne Victory II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3993,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0352,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639300,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T09:29:44.353494+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Melbourne Victory II & Northcote City!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Victoria NPL 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 26 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 53 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 52 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory II | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 39 |
| 7 | Melbourne Srbija | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 39 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 33 |
| 9 | North Geelong Warriors | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 10 | Langwarrin | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Manningham United Blues | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 30 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 13 | Western United II | 26 | 8 | 1 | 17 | 25 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Victory II | 26 | 59 | 36 | +23 | 46 |
| 2 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 26 | 58 | 41 | +17 | 39 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 26 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 53 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 26 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 | Melbourne Knights | 26 | 49 | 24 | +25 | 52 |
| 6 | Brunswick City | 26 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 33 |
| 7 | Langwarrin | 26 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 30 |
| 8 | Western United II | 26 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 25 |
| 9 | Northcote City | 26 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 49 |
| 10 | Manningham United Blues | 26 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 30 |
| 11 | North Geelong Warriors | 26 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 26 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Melbourne Srbija | 26 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 39 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 26 | 14 | 58 | -44 | 17 |
