Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 São Paulo Nữ São Paulo Nữ ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
São Paulo Nữ win · Flamengo Nữ 1–3 São Paulo Nữ
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a93cdc3c1644f5eea1eb6090b912f440e7da132ed473343763eda91983b8bb2d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0243,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.29
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.29,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.5,
"market_odds": 2.29,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -6.1,
"value_pct": -13.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Flamengo N\u1eef or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Flamengo N\u1eef or S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Flamengo N\u1eef or S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -13.9,
"implied_prob": 43.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 2.29
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.0,
"draw": 29.26,
"home": 30.74
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 19:29:20",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 19:01:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Flamengo N\u1eef",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.74,
"gap_pp": 2.13,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.26,
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.0,
"gap_pp": -2.43,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.46,
"gap_pp": 4.74,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.54,
"gap_pp": -4.74,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.98,
"early": 2.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.74,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.13,
"early": 3.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.26,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.46,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.54,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"p_final": 0.4477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0122,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0599,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0411,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0411,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10036.99,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4979,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4922
},
"p_final": 0.5078,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0054,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0733,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5078
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.041,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0563,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"sort_key": 1785.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"alert_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.46,
"hero_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"market_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.46,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.46,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"steam_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Flamengo N\u1eef 1.25 xG vs S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef 1.35 \u2192 S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef 37.5%",
"Market: S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef ~40.0% implied",
"Market Steam: S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.11,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Flamengo N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 30.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.35,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.46,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 40.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.8,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.46,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Flamengo N\u1eef 1.25 xG vs S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef 1.35 \u2192 S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef 37.5%",
"Market: S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef ~40.0% implied",
"Market Steam: S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.46,
"hero_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef odds shortened \u2193 -10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef (\u2193 -10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.46,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.11,
"edge_pp": 2.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Flamengo N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 30.74,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.35,
"edge_pp": 0.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.46,
"edge_pp": -2.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef (40.0%).",
"S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -10.0%, 2/8).",
"S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef (10.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.50",
"2.38",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.50 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 5m",
"pick_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.29,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.1 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sao-paulo-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 9982,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9982.webp",
"away_team_name": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"away_team_public_id": "1rBDChadLmclcV",
"away_team_slug": "sao-paulo-w",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1638746,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Flamengo N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 1794,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1794.webp",
"home_team_name": "Flamengo N\u1eef",
"home_team_public_id": "3CyPS1h500Xdhs",
"home_team_slug": "flamengo-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "flamengo-w",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u0110QG N\u1eef Brazil",
"league_id": 74,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/74.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u0110QG N\u1eef Brazil",
"league_public_id": "5L4EEGFfggp3lp",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 19:30:00",
"public_id": "5CnndyOraRftdr",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rio de Janeiro",
"venue_name": "Estadio Luso Brasileiro"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4336,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4,
"draw": 0.2926,
"home": 0.3074
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3894
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2987,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4,
"draw": 0.2926,
"home": 0.3074
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2935
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4356,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.3074,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4,
"draw": 0.2926,
"home": 0.3074
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3167
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.061,
"ev": -0.1397,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0205,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2091,
"alpha_yes": 0.2091,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.048,
"edge_yes": 0.048,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1091,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0733,
"implied_no": 0.503,
"implied_yes": 0.497,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4922
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5078
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4922,
"p_final_yes": 0.5078,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2103,
"alpha_under": 0.2314,
"best_over_odd": 2.16,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0419,
"edge_under": -0.0419,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0411,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0599,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"implied_over": 0.4401,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4385,
"implied_under": 0.5599,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5615,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4477,
"p_final_under": 0.5514,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0411,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.4979,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4922
},
"p_final": 0.5078,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0733,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5078
}
},
"edge": 0.048,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.497,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"market_prob": 0.4385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"p_final": 0.4477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0599,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0419,
"ev": 0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638746,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0411,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "S\u00e3o Paulo N\u1eef",
"home": "Flamengo N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638746,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T19:29:22.784405+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Flamengo Nữ & São Paulo Nữ!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải VĐQG Nữ Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | São Paulo Nữ | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 41 |
| 2 | Corinthians Nữ | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 |
| 3 | Palmeiras Nữ | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 36 |
| 4 | Ferroviária Nữ | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| 5 | Flamengo Nữ | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 30 |
| 6 | Bahia Nữ | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 29 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro Nữ | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 28 |
| 8 | Grêmio Nữ | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 |
| 9 | Internacional Nữ | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino Nữ | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Fluminense Nữ | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 |
| 12 | Santos Nữ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 13 | Atlético Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
| 14 | Mixto Nữ | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 12 |
| 15 | Juventude Nữ | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 11 |
| 16 | América Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 |
| 17 | Vitória BA W | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo W | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians Nữ | 17 | 42 | 18 | +24 | 38 |
| 2 | Palmeiras Nữ | 17 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 | São Paulo Nữ | 17 | 31 | 11 | +20 | 41 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro Nữ | 17 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 28 |
| 5 | Bahia Nữ | 17 | 30 | 21 | +9 | 29 |
| 6 | RB Bragantino Nữ | 17 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 | Flamengo Nữ | 17 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 30 |
| 8 | Ferroviária Nữ | 17 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 31 |
| 9 | Grêmio Nữ | 17 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 27 |
| 10 | Fluminense Nữ | 17 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 26 |
| 11 | Santos Nữ | 17 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 23 |
| 12 | Internacional Nữ | 17 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 27 |
| 13 | Atlético Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 16 |
| 14 | Vitória BA W | 17 | 15 | 45 | -30 | 7 |
| 15 | Mixto Nữ | 17 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 12 |
| 16 | Botafogo W | 17 | 10 | 38 | -28 | 5 |
| 17 | Juventude Nữ | 17 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 | América Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 9 | 34 | -25 | 7 |
