Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Shanghai Second Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Shanghai Second 1–1 Yichun Grand Tiger
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "229936ce0eac6740e78443904e0a846133bc63017dc008f844cfc139a74816f9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.3897,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Yichun Grand Tiger and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Yichun Grand Tiger"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Shanghai Second",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0428,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3469,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.64
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.64,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Shanghai Second Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.88,
"market_odds": 2.64,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 1.0,
"value_pct": 2.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Shanghai Second or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Shanghai Second or Yichun Grand Tiger",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Yichun Grand Tiger",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Shanghai Second or Yichun Grand Tiger",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Shanghai Second"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.0,
"implied_prob": 37.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Shanghai Second Win",
"model_prob": 39.0,
"odds": 2.64
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Yichun Grand Tiger",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.02,
"draw": 33.3,
"home": 34.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-06 07:29:27",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-06 06:59:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Shanghai Second",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.69,
"gap_pp": 4.28,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.3,
"gap_pp": -3.76,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.02,
"gap_pp": -0.53,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.29,
"gap_pp": 12.91,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.71,
"gap_pp": -12.91,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.75,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.86,
"early": 2.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.02,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.29,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.71,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1875,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0208,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.4328,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2062,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5443
},
"p_final": 0.4536,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1478,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0428,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1875,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0428,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4536
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2476,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.8,
"text": "-24.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1696,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.0,
"text": "+17.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1696,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10302.64,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"p_final": 0.3812,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2146,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0395,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2628,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10236.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0367,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0367,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0288,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Shanghai Second",
"sort_key": 1790.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.28,
"hero_label": "Shanghai Second",
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"market_team": "Shanghai Second",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Shanghai Second",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Shanghai Second at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Shanghai Second as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shanghai Second",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0367,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0288,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.28,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Shanghai Second",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Shanghai Second at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Shanghai Second as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shanghai Second",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0367,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0288,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shanghai Second 1.38 xG vs Yichun Grand Tiger 1.22 \u2192 Shanghai Second 39.0%",
"Market: Shanghai Second ~34.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Shanghai Second +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Shanghai Second with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Shanghai Second",
"market_prob": 34.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.54,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Yichun Grand Tiger",
"market_prob": 32.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.46,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.46,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.09,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.09,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Shanghai Second",
"market_prob_pct": 34.69,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Shanghai Second"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Shanghai Second",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Shanghai Second \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shanghai Second 1.38 xG vs Yichun Grand Tiger 1.22 \u2192 Shanghai Second 39.0%",
"Market: Shanghai Second ~34.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Shanghai Second +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Shanghai Second with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.28,
"hero_label": "Shanghai Second",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Shanghai Second",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.28,
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Shanghai Second",
"market_prob_pct": 34.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.76,
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.54,
"edge_pp": -0.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yichun Grand Tiger",
"market_prob_pct": 32.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Shanghai Second (34.7%).",
"Shanghai Second \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.88,
"closing_odds": 2.64,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.88,
"entry_odds": 2.64,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Shanghai Second",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Shanghai Second",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "yichun-grand-tiger",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Yichun Grand Tiger",
"away_team_id": 17272,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17272.webp",
"away_team_name": "Yichun Grand Tiger",
"away_team_public_id": "1euhvOL79MStCp",
"away_team_slug": "yichun-grand-tiger",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1638511,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Shanghai Second",
"home_team_id": 27619,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Shanghai Second",
"home_team_public_id": "5KYHkowz1DuTSA",
"home_team_slug": "shanghai-second",
"ht.home_team_slug": "shanghai-second",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "League Two Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_id": 929,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/929.webp",
"league_name": "League Two Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_public_id": "0OTBiwD3vrqemv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-06 07:30:00",
"public_id": "4Ch2HMZIuXyWbx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Shanghai",
"venue_name": "Donghua University Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4465,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.3202,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3202,
"draw": 0.333,
"home": 0.3469
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3178
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4246,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1282,
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3202,
"draw": 0.333,
"home": 0.3469
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.317
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4211,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3202,
"draw": 0.333,
"home": 0.3469
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3649
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.0347,
"ev": -0.0993,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0682,
"ev": -0.1876,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": 0.0287,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2062,
"alpha_yes": 0.1875,
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1109,
"edge_yes": 0.1109,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2476,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1237,
"ev_yes": 0.1696,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0428,
"implied_no": 0.5669,
"implied_yes": 0.4331,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2062,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5443
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1875,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0428,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4536
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5443,
"p_final_yes": 0.4536,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.148,
"alpha_under": 0.2036,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1146,
"edge_under": -0.1146,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0395,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1183,
"implied_over": 0.3674,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3636,
"implied_under": 0.6326,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6364,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3812,
"p_final_under": 0.6123,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Shanghai Second at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Shanghai Second as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shanghai Second",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Shanghai Second).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0367,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0288,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shanghai Second"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1875,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.4328,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2062,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5443
},
"p_final": 0.4536,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0428,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1875,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0428,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4536
}
},
"edge": 0.1109,
"ev": 0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4331,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"p_final": 0.3812,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0395,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1146,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3674,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638511,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3674,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3674,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Yichun Grand Tiger",
"home": "Shanghai Second"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.092262,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4331,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0367,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0288,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638511,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-06T07:29:29.749838+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Shanghai Second & Yichun Grand Tiger!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Trung Quốc. League Two Trung Quốc Dự đoán
