Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Bayern Munich Nữ Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Bayern Munich Nữ 2–2 Manchester City Nữ
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c0078d7300a03bb7b247c9dad499116939bd883d2ddb614598fc556e6b14241a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0909,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4469,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.06
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.06,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.24,
"market_odds": 2.06,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 8.6,
"prob_edge": -13.0,
"value_pct": -26.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef or Manchester City N\u1eef",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Manchester City N\u1eef",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef or Manchester City N\u1eef",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.2,
"implied_prob": 24.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Manchester City N\u1eef",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.64,
"draw": 22.67,
"home": 44.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 16:44:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 16:14:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.69,
"gap_pp": -9.09,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.67,
"gap_pp": 7.01,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.64,
"gap_pp": 2.09,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.29,
"gap_pp": -20.09,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.71,
"gap_pp": 20.09,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.06,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.06,
"early": 4.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.67,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.64,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.37,
"early": 1.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.29,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.95,
"early": 2.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.71,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.5,
"ev": 0.134,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.3069,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.315,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.1355,
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6574
},
"p_final": 0.3329,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5385,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0114,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0114,
"implied_prob": 0.3069,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3329
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3397,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.0,
"text": "-34.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.6576,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 65.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6576,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10741.84,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"edge": 0.02,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3144,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0303,
"implied_prob": 0.3144,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3344
},
"p_final": 0.3344,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3195,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0303,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1953,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6856,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6581
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 41.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.7,
"text": "-23.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4105,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10369.45,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1523,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0286,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2668,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"sort_key": 1792.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.05,
"hero_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 44.7,
"market_team": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bayern Munich N\u1eef at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bayern Munich N\u1eef as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1523,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2668,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.05,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bayern Munich N\u1eef at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bayern Munich N\u1eef as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1523,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2668,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bayern Munich N\u1eef 1.31 xG vs Manchester City N\u1eef 1.29 \u2192 Bayern Munich N\u1eef 35.6%",
"Market: Bayern Munich N\u1eef ~44.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Bayern Munich N\u1eef +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bayern Munich N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 44.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.98,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.06,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Manchester City N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 32.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.0,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.0,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.3,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.3,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 44.69,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bayern Munich N\u1eef\u0027s win probability at 44.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bayern Munich N\u1eef 1.31 xG vs Manchester City N\u1eef 1.29 \u2192 Bayern Munich N\u1eef 35.6%",
"Market: Bayern Munich N\u1eef ~44.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Bayern Munich N\u1eef +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bayern Munich N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.05,
"hero_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Bayern Munich N\u1eef. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bayern Munich N\u1eef.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Bayern Munich N\u1eef. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bayern Munich N\u1eef."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Bayern Munich N\u1eef above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Bayern Munich N\u1eef (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Bayern Munich N\u1eef."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Bayern Munich N\u1eef higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.05,
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 44.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.98,
"edge_pp": 6.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.06,
"edge_pp": 2.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Manchester City N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 32.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bayern Munich N\u1eef.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bayern Munich N\u1eef (44.7%).",
"Bayern Munich N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.54,
"closing_odds": 2.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.54,
"entry_odds": 2.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "manchester-city-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Manchester City N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 1854,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1854.webp",
"away_team_name": "Manchester City N\u1eef",
"away_team_public_id": "3dKejLGnHZNKDN",
"away_team_slug": "manchester-city-w",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1638300,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 1860,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1860.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"home_team_public_id": "0Mgw8xlV1KXKBt",
"home_team_slug": "bayern-munich-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bayern-munich-w",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Champions League - N\u1eef",
"league_id": 525,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/525.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Champions League - N\u1eef",
"league_public_id": "27ZZM22RlVn0AQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 16:45:00",
"public_id": "61UIPWguKfvpfn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Munich",
"venue_name": "FC Bayern Campus"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4359,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.3264,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3264,
"draw": 0.2267,
"home": 0.4469
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3355
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.179,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.2267,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3264,
"draw": 0.2267,
"home": 0.4469
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2393
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3886,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0353,
"ev": -0.1523,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3264,
"draw": 0.2267,
"home": 0.4469
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4115
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0207,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.0505,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.1295,
"ev": -0.2668,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.142,
"alpha_yes": 0.1953,
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.143,
"edge_yes": -0.143,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0303,
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1247,
"implied_no": 0.312,
"implied_yes": 0.688,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0303,
"implied_prob": 0.3144,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3344
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1953,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6856,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6581
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3344,
"p_final_yes": 0.6581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1691,
"alpha_under": 0.123,
"best_over_odd": 1.37,
"best_under_odd": 3.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.315,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.97,
"edge_over": -0.21,
"edge_under": 0.21,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3397,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1355,
"ev_under": 0.6576,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0114,
"implied_over": 0.692,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6931,
"implied_under": 0.308,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3069,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.315,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.1355,
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6574
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0114,
"implied_prob": 0.3069,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3329
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6574,
"p_final_under": 0.3329,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bayern Munich N\u1eef at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bayern Munich N\u1eef as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bayern Munich N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1523,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2668,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0353,
"ev": -0.1523,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"edge": 0.02,
"market_prob": 0.3144,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0303,
"implied_prob": 0.3144,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3344
},
"p_final": 0.3344,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0303,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1953,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6856,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6581
}
},
"edge": 0.143,
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"market_prob": 0.3069,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.315,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.1355,
"implied_prob": 0.6931,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6574
},
"p_final": 0.3329,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0114,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0114,
"implied_prob": 0.3069,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3329
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.21,
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.308,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638300,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6576,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Manchester City N\u1eef",
"home": "Bayern Munich N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.238446,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.308,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1523,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2668,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638300,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T16:44:06.082227+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bayern Munich Nữ & Manchester City Nữ!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Champions League - Nữ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Barcelona Nữ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | SL Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Arsenal W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Inter Milano Nữ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Manchester City Nữ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Bayern Munich Nữ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Paris Saint-Germain Nữ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Real Madrid Nữ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | OH Leuven Nữ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Roma Nữ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Juventus Nữ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Austria Wien Nữ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Häcken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Køge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris FC Nữ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois Nữ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 1 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 2 | Barcelona Nữ | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | SL Benfica | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester City Nữ | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich Nữ | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Paris FC Nữ | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 7 | Arsenal W | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Chelsea W | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Inter Milano Nữ | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Paris Saint-Germain Nữ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Real Madrid Nữ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Juventus Nữ | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | OH Leuven Nữ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Roma Nữ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Austria Wien Nữ | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Häcken | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Køge | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois Nữ | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
