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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Elverum Raufoss ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Raufoss win · Elverum 0–3 Raufoss
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "36b38430451edb74991f7528578e69c99cf64ef4ffb9926edc396e28c8662772",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Raufoss and +4.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Raufoss"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Elverum",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0801,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.16
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.16,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Elverum Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.56,
"market_odds": 3.16,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": 4.5,
"value_pct": 14.1,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Elverum or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Elverum or Raufoss",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Raufoss",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Elverum or Raufoss",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Elverum"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+4.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 4.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 7.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.8,
"implied_prob": 25.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.88
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Raufoss",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 49.04,
"draw": 22.88,
"home": 28.09
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:01:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 15:31:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Elverum",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.09,
"gap_pp": 8.01,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.88,
"gap_pp": 6.79,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.04,
"gap_pp": -14.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.16,
"early": 3.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.09,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.88,
"early": 3.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.88,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.04,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.0,
"ev": 0.3125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 10.5,
"market_prob": 0.0952,
"market_prob_pct": 9.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0197,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.2723,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0384,
"ev": -0.1384,
"implied_prob": 0.7277,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6893
},
"p_final": 0.292,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7301,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0248,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.292
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3734,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -37.3,
"text": "-37.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.8648,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 86.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.8648,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10928.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0861,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0135,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.2984,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0861,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.2984,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3119
},
"p_final": 0.3119,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4014,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0394,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.7016,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6719
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5015,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 50.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.5015,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10451.35,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0457,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0414,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1404,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Elverum",
"sort_key": 1789.65,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.8,
"hero_label": "Raufoss",
"market_prob_pct": 28.1,
"market_team": "Raufoss",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Elverum",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Elverum at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Elverum as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Elverum",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +86.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +86.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +86.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+86.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0457,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1404,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.8,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Elverum",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Elverum at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Elverum as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Elverum",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +86.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +86.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +86.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+86.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0457,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1404,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Elverum 1.32 xG vs Raufoss 1.28 \u2192 Elverum 36.1%",
"Market: Raufoss ~28.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Elverum +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Elverum with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.02,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Elverum",
"market_prob": 28.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.77,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.8,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Raufoss",
"market_prob": 49.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.79,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 72.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.79,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 27.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.54,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.54,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Raufoss",
"market_prob_pct": 49.04,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Elverum"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Raufoss\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Elverum",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Elverum 1.32 xG vs Raufoss 1.28 \u2192 Elverum 36.1%",
"Market: Raufoss ~28.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Elverum +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Elverum with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.8,
"hero_label": "Raufoss",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Raufoss than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Raufoss than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Raufoss than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Raufoss more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Raufoss (pricing gap 14.8 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Raufoss",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Raufoss higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.02,
"edge_pp": 8.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Elverum",
"market_prob_pct": 28.09,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.77,
"edge_pp": 6.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.8,
"edge_pp": -14.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Raufoss",
"market_prob_pct": 49.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Raufoss than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Raufoss (28.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Elverum, Market \u2192 Raufoss, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
"closing_odds": 1.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
"entry_odds": 1.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Elverum",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Elverum",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "raufoss",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Raufoss",
"away_team_id": 2153,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2153.webp",
"away_team_name": "Raufoss",
"away_team_public_id": "2TKgddli8GzcSa",
"away_team_slug": "raufoss",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1637865,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Elverum",
"home_team_id": 2156,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2156.webp",
"home_team_name": "Elverum",
"home_team_public_id": "17snRWnCNRLEm0",
"home_team_slug": "elverum",
"ht.home_team_slug": "elverum",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "C\u00fap Qu\u1ed1c gia Na Uy (NM Cupen)",
"league_id": 105,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/105.webp",
"league_name": "C\u00fap Qu\u1ed1c gia Na Uy (NM Cupen)",
"league_public_id": "19gnsoXUXbpE3z",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 16:00:00",
"public_id": "1O5LMQChUB1fQo",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4668,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0691,
"ev": -0.2375,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4904,
"draw": 0.2288,
"home": 0.2809
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2694,
"best_odd": 3.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.2288,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4904,
"draw": 0.2288,
"home": 0.2809
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2471
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.264,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4904,
"draw": 0.2288,
"home": 0.2809
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.302
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.2101,
"ev": -0.3803,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.88,
"edge": 0.0389,
"ev": 0.1511,
"implied_prob": 0.2577,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0445,
"ev": 0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0861,
"alpha_yes": 0.1894,
"best_no_odd": 3.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1554,
"edge_yes": -0.1554,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5015,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0394,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1198,
"implied_no": 0.2996,
"implied_yes": 0.7004,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0861,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.2984,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3119
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.7016,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6719
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3119,
"p_final_yes": 0.6719,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1563,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 3.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.34,
"edge_over": -0.2479,
"edge_under": 0.2479,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3734,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1384,
"ev_under": 0.8648,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0248,
"implied_over": 0.7299,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7277,
"implied_under": 0.2701,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2723,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0384,
"ev": -0.1384,
"implied_prob": 0.7277,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6893
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.292
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6893,
"p_final_under": 0.292,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8648,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Elverum at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Elverum as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Elverum",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +86.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +86.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +86.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+86.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Elverum, but the model still strongly favours Elverum.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0457,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1404,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Elverum"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0861,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0135,
"market_prob": 0.2984,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0861,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.2984,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3119
},
"p_final": 0.3119,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0394,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.7016,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6719
}
},
"edge": 0.1554,
"ev": 0.5015,
"implied_prob": 0.2996,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0197,
"market_prob": 0.2723,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0384,
"ev": -0.1384,
"implied_prob": 0.7277,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6893
},
"p_final": 0.292,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0248,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.292
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2479,
"ev": 0.8648,
"implied_prob": 0.2701,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1637865,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.8648,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5015,
"implied_prob": 0.2996,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5015,
"implied_prob": 0.2996,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Raufoss",
"home": "Elverum"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.313576,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8648,
"implied_prob": 0.2701,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0457,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3164556962025316,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1404,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1637865,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T16:01:14.859409+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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