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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 UTS Rabat UTS Rabat ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
UTS Rabat win · UTS Rabat 2–1 FUS Rabat
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ed6a38a15f9908419bac39e0bfed9a58b59bf71c698ab62342ff491bc9953ba1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or FUS Rabat",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "FUS Rabat"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "UTS Rabat",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0907,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2896,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.2
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "UTS Rabat Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.45,
"market_odds": 3.2,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 6.8,
"value_pct": 21.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "UTS Rabat or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "UTS Rabat or FUS Rabat",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FUS Rabat",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "UTS Rabat or FUS Rabat",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "UTS Rabat"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.7,
"implied_prob": 31.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "UTS Rabat Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 3.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "FUS Rabat",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.2,
"draw": 34.84,
"home": 28.96
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 15:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 15:30:39",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "UTS Rabat",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.11,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.96,
"gap_pp": 9.07,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.84,
"gap_pp": -5.25,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.2,
"gap_pp": -3.83,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.7,
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.3,
"gap_pp": -12.5,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.96,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.02,
"implied_early_pct": 28.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.02,
"implied_early_pct": 34.82,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.56,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.63,
"early": 2.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.7,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 35.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.46,
"early": 1.45,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 64.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.3652,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3652,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"p_final": 0.3826,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2146,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0359,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6348,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6109
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2532,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2334,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.3,
"text": "-23.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2532,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10377.88,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4489,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"p_final": 0.4673,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1152,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0421,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4673
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.2,
"text": "-20.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.2,
"text": "+14.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1424,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10128.16,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.002,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.2,
"text": "+0.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.002,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.2,
"text": "+0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "UTS Rabat",
"sort_key": 5201.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"alert_team": "UTS Rabat",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.05,
"hero_label": "UTS Rabat",
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"market_team": "FUS Rabat",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "UTS Rabat",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2532,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2532,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UTS Rabat at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UTS Rabat as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UTS Rabat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.002,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.05,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "UTS Rabat",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2532,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2532,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UTS Rabat at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UTS Rabat as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UTS Rabat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.002,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UTS Rabat 1.36 xG vs FUS Rabat 1.24 \u2192 UTS Rabat 38.0%",
"Market: FUS Rabat ~29.0% implied",
"Market Drift: UTS Rabat odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours UTS Rabat, but the market has moved away from UTS Rabat.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.05,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "UTS Rabat",
"market_prob": 28.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.25,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.81,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "FUS Rabat",
"market_prob": 36.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.09,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.09,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "UTS Rabat",
"market_prob_pct": 28.96,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "UTS Rabat"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates UTS Rabat\u0027s win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.0%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "UTS Rabat",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UTS Rabat 1.36 xG vs FUS Rabat 1.24 \u2192 UTS Rabat 38.0%",
"Market: FUS Rabat ~29.0% implied",
"Market Drift: UTS Rabat odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours UTS Rabat, but the market has moved away from UTS Rabat.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.05,
"hero_label": "UTS Rabat",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "UTS Rabat odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on UTS Rabat.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on UTS Rabat.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on UTS Rabat.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on UTS Rabat."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on UTS Rabat.",
"Recent line movement on UTS Rabat (\u2191 +6.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "UTS Rabat",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.1,
"lead": "The model rates UTS Rabat considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.05,
"edge_pp": 9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "UTS Rabat",
"market_prob_pct": 28.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.25,
"edge_pp": -5.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.81,
"edge_pp": -3.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FUS Rabat",
"market_prob_pct": 36.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on UTS Rabat.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FUS Rabat (29.0%).",
"UTS Rabat odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.7%, 3/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 UTS Rabat, Market \u2192 FUS Rabat, while UTS Rabat odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.25,
"closing_odds": 3.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.25,
"entry_odds": 3.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 20m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on UTS Rabat (swing 3.16 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 2.88) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"2.95",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.16 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 20m",
"pick_team": "UTS Rabat",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.16"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.2,
3.16,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.4 56.0,11.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "UTS Rabat",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from UTS Rabat while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "UTS Rabat",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "UTS Rabat",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "UTS Rabat",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fus-rabat",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FUS Rabat",
"away_team_id": 977,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/977.webp",
"away_team_name": "FUS Rabat",
"away_team_public_id": "5TEFFsTkamnjFC",
"away_team_slug": "fus-rabat",
"country_code": "MA",
"country_display_name": "Morocco",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ma.svg",
"country_id": 111,
"country_name": "Morocco",
"fixture_id": 1636668,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Morocco",
"home_team_display_name": "UTS Rabat",
"home_team_id": 14806,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14806.webp",
"home_team_name": "UTS Rabat",
"home_team_public_id": "37CXyVJhYzp8zW",
"home_team_slug": "uts-rabat",
"ht.home_team_slug": "uts-rabat",
"league_country": "Morocco",
"league_country_display": "Morocco",
"league_display_name": "Botola Pro",
"league_id": 200,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/200.webp",
"league_name": "Botola Pro",
"league_public_id": "2ZJmChFp0Ldm1r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3J0nobFHe1LYMS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rabat",
"venue_name": "Stade Prince Moulay Hassan"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4242,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.362,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.362,
"draw": 0.3484,
"home": 0.2896
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3458
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4146,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1311,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.362,
"draw": 0.3484,
"home": 0.2896
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3266
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2592,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.002,
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.362,
"draw": 0.3484,
"home": 0.2896
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3131
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0669,
"ev": -0.1713,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.08,
"ev": -0.2128,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.0678,
"ev": 0.2171,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2122,
"alpha_yes": 0.1929,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0909,
"edge_yes": 0.0909,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1134,
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0421,
"implied_no": 0.5469,
"implied_yes": 0.4531,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4673
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5309,
"p_final_yes": 0.4673,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1485,
"alpha_under": 0.2042,
"best_over_odd": 2.6,
"best_under_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.45,
"edge_over": 0.1148,
"edge_under": -0.1148,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2532,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0359,
"ev_under": -0.2334,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1142,
"implied_over": 0.3672,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3652,
"implied_under": 0.6328,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6348,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3652,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6348,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6109
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3826,
"p_final_under": 0.6109,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2532,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2532,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2532,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2532,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2532,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UTS Rabat at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UTS Rabat as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UTS Rabat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UTS Rabat, but the model still strongly favours UTS Rabat.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.002,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.002,
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "UTS Rabat"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.4489,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"p_final": 0.4673,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0421,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4673
}
},
"edge": 0.0909,
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.3652,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3652,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"p_final": 0.3826,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0359,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6348,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6109
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1148,
"ev": 0.2532,
"implied_prob": 0.3672,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1636668,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2532,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FUS Rabat",
"home": "UTS Rabat"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.08543,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2532,
"implied_prob": 0.3672,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.002,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3125,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636668,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:59:07.470473+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho UTS Rabat & FUS Rabat!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Botola Pro — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | UTS Rabat | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Hassania Agadir | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Ittihad Tanger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Raja Casablanca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | CODM Meknès | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | FAR Rabat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Kawkab Marrakech | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Wydad AC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Widad Témara | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Amal Tiznit | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Moghreb Tetouan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Renaissance Berkane | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | FUS Rabat | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Difaâ El Jadida | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hassania Agadir | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | CODM Meknès | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Maghreb Fès | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Ittihad Tanger | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | UTS Rabat | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Kawkab Marrakech | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Wydad AC | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Widad Témara | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Amal Tiznit | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Difaâ El Jadida | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Raja Casablanca | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 13 | FAR Rabat | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Moghreb Tetouan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | FUS Rabat | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Renaissance Berkane | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
