Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Resistencia Fernando de la Mora ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Fernando de la Mora win · Fernando de la Mora 2–1 Resistencia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "29069e4bf808f0c4adf507f51fa303d7da3615d6f93fc413b27df46b59b294f7",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Resistencia and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Resistencia"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Resistencia",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0665,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2945,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.02
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.02,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Resistencia Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.4,
"market_odds": 3.02,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": 3.0,
"value_pct": 9.0,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Fernando de la Mora or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Fernando de la Mora or Resistencia",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Resistencia",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Fernando de la Mora or Resistencia",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Resistencia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.0,
"implied_prob": 33.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Resistencia Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 3.02
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Resistencia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.45,
"draw": 29.94,
"home": 40.61
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:04:45",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 12:35:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.61,
"gap_pp": -6.37,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.94,
"gap_pp": -0.28,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.45,
"gap_pp": 6.65,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.2,
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.8,
"gap_pp": -5.0,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.61,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.97,
"early": 2.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.94,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.02,
"early": 3.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.7,
"text": "+2.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0267,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5221.36,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0066,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4934
},
"p_final": 0.5066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0081,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.078,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5066
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1719,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.2,
"text": "-17.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.8,
"text": "-0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0081,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1797.975,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0565,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0565,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Resistencia",
"sort_key": 1785.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.66,
"hero_label": "Resistencia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.4,
"market_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Resistencia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.09,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Resistencia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Resistencia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Resistencia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Resistencia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +9% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636656 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +9% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0565,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.66,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.09,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Resistencia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Resistencia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Resistencia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Resistencia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +9% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636656 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +9% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0565,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fernando de la Mora 1.28 xG vs Resistencia 1.32 \u2192 Resistencia 36.1%",
"Market: Fernando de la Mora ~29.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Fernando de la Mora +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Resistencia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.37,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Fernando de la Mora",
"market_prob": 40.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.29,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.66,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Resistencia",
"market_prob": 29.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Resistencia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.45,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Fernando de la Mora"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Resistencia\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.4%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Resistencia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fernando de la Mora 1.28 xG vs Resistencia 1.32 \u2192 Resistencia 36.1%",
"Market: Fernando de la Mora ~29.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Fernando de la Mora +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Resistencia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.66,
"hero_label": "Resistencia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Fernando de la Mora has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Resistencia.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Fernando de la Mora.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Resistencia.",
"However, Fernando de la Mora has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Fernando de la Mora."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Resistencia.",
"At the same time, Fernando de la Mora has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Fernando de la Mora."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Resistencia",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.7,
"lead": "The model rates Resistencia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.37,
"edge_pp": -6.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fernando de la Mora",
"market_prob_pct": 40.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.29,
"edge_pp": -0.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.66,
"edge_pp": 6.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Resistencia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Fernando de la Mora.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fernando de la Mora (29.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Resistencia, Market \u2192 Fernando de la Mora, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.11,
"closing_odds": 3.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.11,
"entry_odds": 3.02,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Fernando de la Mora",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "resistencia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Resistencia",
"away_team_id": 2135,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2135.webp",
"away_team_name": "Resistencia",
"away_team_public_id": "1PR6Hq6Lq2pltc",
"away_team_slug": "resistencia",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1636656,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Fernando de la Mora",
"home_team_id": 2130,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2130.webp",
"home_team_name": "Fernando de la Mora",
"home_team_public_id": "55GuBxwPbNYYUZ",
"home_team_slug": "fernando-de-la-mora",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fernando-de-la-mora",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Division Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_id": 251,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/251.webp",
"league_name": "Division Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_public_id": "0sWYiIa69VAN3C",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "4seDSfCdFIwwB0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2701,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2945,
"draw": 0.2994,
"home": 0.4061
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3124
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4481,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2945,
"draw": 0.2994,
"home": 0.4061
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2982
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.407,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1674,
"implied_prob": 0.4061,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2945,
"draw": 0.2994,
"home": 0.4061
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3802
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0298,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": -0.04,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.1142,
"ev": -0.2502,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1469,
"alpha_yes": 0.1469,
"best_no_odd": 1.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.045,
"edge_yes": 0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1719,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.102,
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.078,
"implied_no": 0.5,
"implied_yes": 0.5,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4934
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5066
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.4934,
"p_final_yes": 0.5066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2111,
"alpha_under": 0.2322,
"best_over_odd": 2.13,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.033,
"edge_under": -0.033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_over": 0.449,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4409,
"implied_under": 0.551,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5591,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4495,
"p_final_under": 0.5496,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.09,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.09,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Resistencia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Resistencia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Resistencia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Resistencia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +9% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636656 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +9% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Fernando de la Mora, but the model still strongly favours Resistencia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0565,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0267,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Resistencia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0066,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4934
},
"p_final": 0.5066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.078,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5066
}
},
"edge": 0.045,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.033,
"ev": 0.0267,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1636656,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0267,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Resistencia",
"home": "Fernando de la Mora"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0565,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636656,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:04:47.056330+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Fernando de la Mora & Resistencia!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Division Intermedia Paraguay — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santaní | 26 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 51 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 49 |
| 4 | Benjamín Aceval | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Sol de América | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 40 |
| 6 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Independiente FBC | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Paraguari AC | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 9 | Resistencia | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 10 | Fernando de la Mora | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| 11 | Atlético Tembetary | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 12 | Deportivo Capiatá | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 28 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26 |
| 14 | Guaireña FC | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 24 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | General Caballero | 26 | 52 | 33 | +19 | 50 |
| 2 | Deportivo Santaní | 26 | 45 | 25 | +20 | 51 |
| 3 | Benjamín Aceval | 26 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 42 |
| 4 | Independiente FBC | 26 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 37 |
| 5 | 12 de Junio VH | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 49 |
| 6 | Paraguari AC | 25 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Atlético Tembetary | 25 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 30 |
| 8 | 3 de Noviembre | 26 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 26 |
| 9 | Sol de América | 26 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 40 |
| 10 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 26 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Deportivo Capiatá | 26 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Resistencia | 26 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 32 |
| 13 | Fernando de la Mora | 25 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 31 |
| 14 | Tacuary | 26 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 24 |
| 15 | Encarnación | 26 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Guaireña FC | 25 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 25 |
